There is something quite remarkable about Sweden. They decided early on to adhere to established public health practices and refused to panic. They rationalized a viral threat and established a risk based policy. 1/
That policy was built on trust and knowledge of its population. There was no fanfare or dramatic pressers filled with breying politicans. Just dull workman like activity moderating risk while society functioned. 2/
Public trust enables transparency and that is what you see below. A summarized version of Sweden's final Covid report. Take a read and appreciate the thoughtful deliberation. Data analysis is clear, candid and unromantic. 3/
Sweden did many things right but deficits were highlighted, three of which are noteworthy. Two structural (poor investment in critical care and LTCs) and one legislative (recent gov't regulation). All driven by understandable political decisions. 4/
Sweden provides a calm contrast to the chaotic atmosphere of Ontario and Canada. There is an immaturity to our C19 response, political leadership is thin, public health community is lost in a bizarre social isolation experiment and the media is unable to inform. 5/
Examples are numerous, one being the Ontario premier's claim he will protect the kids. They are, of course, not at risk where the frail elderly are. Canada's most western province, under Dr. Henry's pragmatic leadership, has faired better. 6/
Ontario's science panel is another example of dysfunction. Slide presentations are unprofessional and have the look like of a high school science project. Data mistakes are readily evident and they have the uncanny ability to convince you their actions have no impact. 7/
It's quite remarkable and it goes to the heart of data literacy and whether Ontario would be better served by new voices. Cost benefit analyses are never performed and the long term repercussions aren't considered. Ontario seems to be running blind. 8/
This brings us to yesterday's events when Ontario's former CMO (Dr. Schabas) gently admonished the gov't and suggested the province could follow a "no drama" sweden-like approach. 9/
This didn't sit well with media who feeds the public a steady diet of panic porn. They too lack data literacy and lack the curiosity needed to address the gaping holes in scientific logic. As such, Dr. Schabas' dull workman-like solution is viewed as radical. 10/
Ontario is floundering and it sails rudderlessly into the future This hasn't gone unnoticed to business colleagues, who occupying a tax bracket decided higher than mine, are planning to move their families out of the country. Their dismay is clear. 11/
This is yet again another sign of failure, loss of communal confidence in Ontario's political and scientific leadership. It isn't surprising and a sensible course correction is now required. This needs to be accomplished quickly before permanent damage is done. End.
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Canada has shrunk as a nation. Our minds dulled by relentless propaganda, uninspiring leaders, a lazy media and an absent academic class. Those aren't my words but of a colleague travelling to his birth country with decidedly less resources. They were struck by the contrast. 1/
C19, a rather standard albeit slightly more virulent respiratory virus,has brought a nation to its knees. Panic and fear runs amuck and simple statistics fail to penetrate the collective consciousness. 2/
C19 strikes the frail and the vulnerable which was utterly predictable. Our response has been to ignore the frail, then shutter society and prevent kids from going to school and tobogganing. The logic is opaque to any reasonable citizen so where did it come from? 3/
I would like add two further comments to Mr. Baber's rational approach to C19, one of whcih centers on communication. The York MPP has been appropriately critical of the gov't narrative and the wide spread seeding of panic and fear. 1/
Rule #1 in an emergency response is to maintain trust and not to sow panic and fear. Unfortunately, the provincial and federal gov'ts have done just that aided by an undisciplined science panel. This simply needs to change for the health of everyone. 2/
The Ontario science panels lacks the skill set needed to run an effective C19 response. Academics can provide high level theory and analysis of critical data. They have little understanding of societal function, basic logistics or emergency management. 3/
Mr. Baber provides a well supported critique of gov't C19 policies and actions. He displays good working knowledge of facts which I would expect of an MPP who takes his job seriously. I have a few additional thoughts to aid this critique. 1/
The modeling by any standard has been wildly inaccurate. There are two main reasons for this. 1) the model itself is incorrectly constructed or 2) the underlying assumptions are inaccurate. Mr. Baber's information reminds me that both are likely the case. 2/
For example, the chart highlights a focus on asymptomatic transmission. This is a fringe concept. If present, and that is a big "IF", it's extremely low and not at the levels noted. This concept remains highly controversial and experimental support is near nonexistent. 3/
Too many in our public health community have spent the last year ignoring history and ground level reality, and embracing anodyne theory and jibberish models. Below is a small snapshot of what happens when you indulge in academic escapism. 1/
One observes a persistent rise in deaths in working age populations. Deaths of dispair, by self harm, just to name a few. And the response from our public health community? Its been to retreat further into anodyne theory and jibberish modeling. 2/
This is the tip of the iceberg and we know it. The economy is held together with bandaids, education is in shambles and people have lost their livelihoods and saving. And Canada's public health community egged it on, with little self reflection and a sense of entitlement. 3/
A few thoughts this morning. If you get your C19 news from a:
1)TV anchor with no science background in 30 second bites;
2)newspaper who sponsors content and has their best sports writer on the job; 3) high school teacher who believes he's Canada's top modeler;
Maybe...1/
You might consider diversifying your information sources. A couple of suggestions:
1) Dr. Robert Lee, British pathologist and columnist; 2) Carl Henehgan, Center for evidence based medicine (Oxford); 3) Sunetra Gupta, theoretical epidemiologist at Oxford; 2/
4) Martin Kulldorff, epidemiologist at Harvard; 5) Clare Craig, the Ethical Sceptic, Joel Smalley; 5) Lockdown Sceptics, indepth science reporting on C19; 6) Pandata19, an international group of data scientists and epidemiologists; 3/
How did it come to this? A deeply misguided effort (@joyhataley) to silence @randyhillier, a MPP in the provincial legislature. This reflects poorly on the medical community. How could one do it differently in a thoughtful, educated manner. Lets consider. 1/
First, Mr. Hillier and I don't share political perspective but we do share a respect for facts. Facts are the foundation of debate and for the development of sound policy. Ontario has no mechanism to robustly debate C19 facts as the legislature is basically shuttered. 2/
So Mr. Hillier has consequently decided to organize rallies and engage in civil disobedience. All rather normal behavior. He has an audience because leaders in the medical/political community haven't convinced the public that draconian actions are necessary. 3/