Will Easter be the new Xmas, albeit a thin one? This is the PM's new hope, I'm told. He has privately shared an aspiration to see restrictions begin to ease by Good Friday (April 2), to allow families some small contact again. But there is tension with Chris Whitty though (1)
It is weeks away yet, but ministers have begun to put together a plan for the unlock. The CMO is adamant any end to the lockdown must be 1. conditions dependent (deaths down, pressure off the NHS etc), and 2. very careful and in slow degrees with pauses to test them (2)
That means no dates stated, and no promise of Easter offered. This tension emerged briefly during last Friday's press conference when Whitty and Johnson clashed briefly in public over the definition of 'Spring' - is it pre or post Easter (3)
Whitty is backed by Matt Hancock and other Cabinet 'doves'. One source close to the PM said Whitty “is being a bit wet” as tens millions of vaccinations will have cut the fatality risk a lot by then (aides insist this is not the PM’s view and he has deep respect for the CMO) (4)
Others in Government say there is a grim dawning realisation emerging that heavy restrictions - Tier 4 and 3 - are likely to have to remain in place in the big cities through April and even into May because current cases are so high and will take many weeks to decrease (5)
That's with or without the success of the vaccination programme, whose early huge success has even stunned No10. Senior Cabinet ministers' biggest worry now is another mutant variant that requires a new vaccine for everyone afresh. More on @TimesRadio after 7am (6)
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Rules about exercise is today's lockdown row, but the rate by which hospital admissions are now increasing all over the UK feels altogether more worrying. A brief thread... (1)
NHS Providers CEO @chrishopson warned the Health Committee this morning he now fears this wave's peak will no longer subside in Janaury, but now extend into early or mid February because of the increased transmissibility of the new strain (2)
Rates of increase are now slowing in London, the SE and East of England to only(!) 3% more admissions daily now, but they are rocketing in the Midlands, NW and SW. In the NW alone, daily growth rate in hospital admissions now above 7%. ht @davewwest for this graph (3)
Deputy Chief Constable Paul Netherton, National Police Lead for Civil Contingencies, tells G&T: "As we left the previous lockdowns and went into tiers, the message was confusing. The pubic thought 'oh, I can do more. Now everybody knows what the rules are". @TimesRadio
Do the police have enough powers to enforce lockdown? Paul Netherton: "There is no power to stop people travelling, or walking down the street. But we can stop people to ask them what they're doing".
Are you concerned not enough people are abiding by the lockdown rules at the moment? Paul Netherton: "Yes, I am. We need to get the R rate down".
I understand that the Joint Biosecurity Centre is moving the Covid-19 alert level up to 5 for the first time, the highest level. This means there is “a material risk of healthcare services being overwhelmed in 21 days".
It's currently at Level 4, “a high or rising level of transmission". It is this that has prompted the PM to impose a 3rd national lockdown tonight, sources close to him say, as well as today's new case numbers, described to me as "horrific". More on @TimesRadio after 4pm.
Where is the Brexit trade deal negotiation now, after the PM and UVDL agreed to extend their 'final' deadline of today? 1. Boris Johnson insists the UK and EU are still "very far apart" on key areas, but everyone expects them to "go the extra mile", so they will.
2. Boris Johnson publicly and Downing Street privately are refusing to discuss whether either side has moved overnight - which very much suggests one/both have. And UVDL described the 11am call as "useful", + made no mention of big gaps continuing.
3. In what would be a crucial break through, @nickgutteridge reports the EU has dropped its demand for a ratchet clause to impose lightening tariffs for LPF divergence. No10 also refusing to discuss this.
More on the internal power struggle raging in No10. I understand that Lee Cain, his current Director of Comms, tendered his resignation last week. Argued that he would be sidelined by the appointment of a new Chief of Staff and new on-air spokeswoman Allegra Stratton (1/5)
Cain told his staff he was going, and didn't return to No10 for several days. One source tells me it amounted to an ultimatum from Cain to the PM - if you sideline me, you lose me. This is what sparked the conversation between them about Cain taking the Chief of Staff role (2/5)
Cain’s promotion is bitterly opposed by others, not least PM’s fiancee and closest unofficial adviser Carrie Symonds. Some say appointment is ”close to done deal” but others say the PM is now very undecided. One source says there is just “a 20% chance of it happening now” (3/5)