One of the more depressing things about covid, from a political-psychological & sociological point of view, is just how little many Americans’ support for public health (the bureaucracy, professionals, and safety measures) has risen over the course of 400k deaths.
Covid has tested our commitment to each other in a bleak, dispiriting way. After a year of deaths, partisanship & conspiratorial thinking are still the leading predictors of whether people will even wear masks. Makes you wonder what could really prepare us for the next pandemic.
If a virus that kills over half a million Americans by the end of its pandemic stage isn’t enough to significantly shore up bipartisan funding for public health, expand access to healthcare, and significantly raise opinion for a robust public response, what is?
The past year has also taught us a lot about the limits of partisanship (there don’t appear to be any) in a way that is equally dispiriting when thinking about the future of our shared American identity (to use a charged word). If covid can’t bring people together, what can? Etc
(This is not to equate membership in the Democratic v Republican parties, because they clearly do not represent equal extremes on each ideological axis.)
/end You can believe both that (i) the current Admin has been remarkably irresponsible and (ii) that opposition to good things like covid guidelines, expansion of public health workforces, and universal healthcare has been stubbornly, worryingly stable.
The last week has proved that almost nothing can stop the GOP’s politicization of their illiberalism—now ranking near Poland and Turkey’s right-wing parties for their endorsement of authoritarianism. They have radicalized their voters against democracy. Dark days for the republic
We might have three major (endogenous) ideological dimensions in America now: left-right economic, open-closed social attitudes, and liberalism-authoritarianism in support for democracy. That last divide is untenable. It’s incompatible with our government.
If the GOP can basically just campaign against pro-democracy, anti-corruption speech with traditional culture-war arguments (against censorship &c), it’s really hard to see the path forward. No electoral incentive for leadership, no accountability. Are we too far gone?
I don't see Congress is at all addressing what happened today. Trumpism, Republican power ideology, and our electoral institutions brought us to this point, and there doesn't seem to be any reckoning with that (I'm mainly talking about from the GOP side).
Sure, Romney, Graham, and some others have objected to the anti-certification nefariousness, but that's not going to stop what's really threatening American democracy right now.
Saying "enough is enough" in no way repairs years of perpetuating conspiracy theories about fraud and otherwise destabilizing democracy. Republican lawmakers need to reckon with what they've created (violent, anti-democratic mobs) or it's all for naught.
It's early in GA, but the NYT needles are pretty good. Plus: AP Votecast has Trump's approval in GA down since Nov; polls were good in the general; and the $2k checks and Trump call could be big factors. I'm happy if I'm a Dem, but Atlanta results could tip the scales.
It is worth noting that the average shift since November in counties that are 100% reporting (per the NYT) is about two percentage points toward Democrats. I'm not expecting Ossoff/Warnock to win by _that_ much, but directionally this is often a good indicator.
Not only is the statistical analysis that Paxton relies on incomprehensibly misspecified, but the author actually explains *why* it's wrong (later votes came from cities, competitive battleground metros are less latino) IN THE CONCLUSION OF HIS STATEMENTS
Our latest YouGov/The Economist poll has a host of troubling findings about public confidence in the election.
Most shocking is that 86% of Trump voters say that Biden "did not legitimately win the election." 73% say that we'll "never know the real outcome of this election."
We also see the usual patterns in attitudes about mail-in voting and fraud. 88% of Trump voters say they believe that "illegal immigrants voted fraudulently in 2016 and tried again in 2020," for ex, and 90% believed that "mail ballots are being manipulated to favor Joe Biden."
Republicans are also exhibiting some... concerning... attitudes about the franchise, with 46% saying that "some people are not smart enough to vote" (27% among Dems) and 43% saying that people should have to pass a test before voting (15% for Dems).