new evidence that professors of finance should come out of their monetarist closets not to scream inflation, but to learn about banking ft.com/content/653611…
Quantity Theory of Money is wrong on many levels, but nowhere more so than in assuming banks dont have the power to create money (money supply exogenously controlled by central bank via reserve multiplier).
The monetarist take on coming inflation shock: 1. before Lehman, banks didnt hold excess reserves, but lent them into money market. 2. They could absorb QE-injected reserves without increasing credit. 3. COVID19 reserve creation finally increased bank deposits = inflation
every single one of these steps in the causal chain is wrong, no small feat for a short FT piece.
1. 'before Lehman, banks didnt hold excess reserves, but lent them into money market' = wrong
Banking system either has excess reserves in aggregate, or not. Pre-Lehman, banks used tri-party repo to economise on reserves &run away from Fed' balance sheet ft.com/content/4da3a0…
2. 'They could absorb QE-injected reserves without increasing credit' = wrong
This is money multiplier reasoning, where central banks inject reserves & presto, banks increase credit.
Here is Bank of England's view on this: banks dont multiply up central bank money
3. 'COVID19 reserve creation finally increased bank deposits = inflation' - also wrong
QTM says excess demand for goods& services, fuelled by excessive money growth, will lead to inflation when at full employment.
hard to believe we are at full employment.
the irony, of course, if that if somehow we get inflation, you know which bondholder wont care, and can take infinite losses
apparently, the Gospel according to Morgan Stanley is that we havent had enough neoliberalism for the past 4 decades
if you click on BIS link, it tells you monetary policy, not higher deficits, are associated with wealth inequality.
Incidentally, unconventional monetary policy through which central banks basically rescued banks after they nearly destroyed the global financial system in 2008
show me something more confusing than accounting capital flows in the balance of payments - this, with due respect, is not helping. cc @jonsindreu@i_aldasoro
last year, @nssylla and I warned that France & G20 are planting budgetary time bombs in Africa through a conveyor belt that transfers their fiscal resources to institutional investors in the Global North.
news from Kenya today about one critical element of that conveyor belt - Public Private Partnerships through which state guarantees private profits.
The IMF estimated those derisking commitments to be around 8% of GDP in 2019 (and stressed this is a significant underestimate)
today, under IMF pressure (and as it finally joined the DSSI club), Kenyan Treasury accepted to include those PPP derisking commitment in public debt numbers
and for those who think people like me ignore the 'market':
I'd say politicians have not caught up with the structural realities of financial markets where government debt has a 'macrofinancial' role rather different from standard 'fiscal' role
hard to believe, but in the late 1940s, CDU, the party that gave Europe 'Schwarze null' and Schauble objected to central bank independence
instead it wanted 'an absolute coordination of policy between the central bank and the future state' (Mee 2019)
ahem, JC Trichet
The 1950 Bundesbank Law debate equated central bank independence with 'state within a state', capable of sacrificing employment for sound money. Familiar eh?