new evidence that professors of finance should come out of their monetarist closets not to scream inflation, but to learn about banking ft.com/content/653611…
Quantity Theory of Money is wrong on many levels, but nowhere more so than in assuming banks dont have the power to create money (money supply exogenously controlled by central bank via reserve multiplier).

richmondfed.org/~/media/richmo…
The monetarist take on coming inflation shock:
1. before Lehman, banks didnt hold excess reserves, but lent them into money market.
2. They could absorb QE-injected reserves without increasing credit.
3. COVID19 reserve creation finally increased bank deposits = inflation
every single one of these steps in the causal chain is wrong, no small feat for a short FT piece.
1. 'before Lehman, banks didnt hold excess reserves, but lent them into money market' = wrong

Banking system either has excess reserves in aggregate, or not. Pre-Lehman, banks used tri-party repo to economise on reserves &run away from Fed' balance sheet
ft.com/content/4da3a0…
2. 'They could absorb QE-injected reserves without increasing credit' = wrong

This is money multiplier reasoning, where central banks inject reserves & presto, banks increase credit.

Here is Bank of England's view on this: banks dont multiply up central bank money
3. 'COVID19 reserve creation finally increased bank deposits = inflation' - also wrong

QTM says excess demand for goods& services, fuelled by excessive money growth, will lead to inflation when at full employment.

hard to believe we are at full employment.
the irony, of course, if that if somehow we get inflation, you know which bondholder wont care, and can take infinite losses

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More from @DanielaGabor

20 Jan
bankers against Biden's fiscal plan could really do with some proper fact-checking before sending their op-ed to the FT.

We all understand 'it's ideology, stupid!', but no excuse for lazy arguments.

ft.com/content/d49b53…
apparently, the Gospel according to Morgan Stanley is that we havent had enough neoliberalism for the past 4 decades Image
if you click on BIS link, it tells you monetary policy, not higher deficits, are associated with wealth inequality.

Incidentally, unconventional monetary policy through which central banks basically rescued banks after they nearly destroyed the global financial system in 2008 Image
Read 10 tweets
12 Jan
show me something more confusing than accounting capital flows in the balance of payments - this, with due respect, is not helping. cc @jonsindreu @i_aldasoro

bankunderground.co.uk/2021/01/12/how…
in their first example, Chinese authorities have nothing to fear from Chinese residents moving their deposits to the US.

But of course, that is wrong, because down the line there will be a net loss of fx reserves for the Chinese banking system.
Example 2: US asset manager buys Kenyan corporate bond. There is literally no USD capital inflow in Kenya.

Helene Rey's global financial cycle obliterated out of existence.
Read 5 tweets
11 Jan
last year, @nssylla and I warned that France & G20 are planting budgetary time bombs in Africa through a conveyor belt that transfers their fiscal resources to institutional investors in the Global North.
news from Kenya today about one critical element of that conveyor belt - Public Private Partnerships through which state guarantees private profits.

The IMF estimated those derisking commitments to be around 8% of GDP in 2019 (and stressed this is a significant underestimate)
today, under IMF pressure (and as it finally joined the DSSI club), Kenyan Treasury accepted to include those PPP derisking commitment in public debt numbers

Read 6 tweets
10 Jan
Oh no, Starmer is repeating the Tory line on 'we are at concerning levels of public debt' #marr
and for those who think people like me ignore the 'market':

I'd say politicians have not caught up with the structural realities of financial markets where government debt has a 'macrofinancial' role rather different from standard 'fiscal' role

Read 4 tweets
2 Jan
hard to believe, but in the late 1940s, CDU, the party that gave Europe 'Schwarze null' and Schauble objected to central bank independence

instead it wanted 'an absolute coordination of policy between the central bank and the future state' (Mee 2019)
ahem, JC Trichet
The 1950 Bundesbank Law debate equated central bank independence with 'state within a state', capable of sacrificing employment for sound money. Familiar eh?
Read 6 tweets
31 Dec 20
This is clearly missing an 'Empire of Repo' book.
Empire of Repo: monetary plumbing in the age(s) of financial globalisation.
US version, with a bit more ooomph:

Empire of Repo

The Plumbers that changed the World of Finance.
Read 14 tweets

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