1/ Regulations are ultimately about managing risk, whether that risk is fraud, unsafe practices or someone building an ugly building.

The more (actually or performatively) worried you are about the specific risk, the more checks, approvals, rules and guidelines you put in place.
2/ Governments on both the left and right actually have similarly low appetites for risk, they just focus primarily on different risk categories and operate from an assumption that different groups are bastards that must be watched.
3/ Left wing governments have a tendency to focus on risks arising from business activities and capital.

Their regulations tend to assume that management are bastards, and must be monitored and constrained lest they exploit people or generate negative externalities for profit.
4/ Right wing governments have a tendency to focus on benefits fraud risks.

Their regulations tend to assume folks are out to scam any benefits scheme, and must be monitored and constrained lest they take advantage of the tax-payer's generosity.
5/ Both left wing and right wing governments also use regulations to target social behaviors they deem undesirable.

The specific behaviors targeted tend to be different (criminalizing hate speech vs criminalizing drug use, for example), but it's still all regulation.
6/ Side note:

Because cutting regulations on something you don't think should be controlled is harder administratively and politically than new rules on an area you think is too lax, the democratic back and forth tends to lead to ever increasing aggregate levels of regulation.
7/ That's why when governments try to paint themselves as "red-tape cutting" what they almost always mean is:

"We want to (largely performatively) trim some regulation in the areas we aren't worried about, but we'll be adding much more in the areas we are."
8/ A more intellectually honest position would be a review that aimed not at 'slashing regulations' but at reviewing them and making them easier to navigate.

Transparency, digitization, single windows, removing arbitrary gatekeepers, and removing pointless redundancy. /end
9/ P.S Yes, I know you have a thousand examples of governments being hypocrites around all this stuff.

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More from @DmitryOpines

18 Jan
1/ A challenge in parsing Brexit news is that businesses are facing overlapping types of challenges that can be difficult to separate.

The key questions are:
1⃣ Given the model of Brexit chosen, could this have been prevented, and by whom?
2⃣ Can it get better?
2/ To put those another way:

"If you knew everything you needed to know and did everything right, is your existing business and delivery model still viable and competitive?"

The answer to that question determines if for you the problem is Brexit, or how Brexit was delivered.
3/ Some of the challenges at borders could have been prevented while still having the exact same model of Brexit (No Single Market, No Customs Union, but an FTA).

That they're appearing is an implementation failure and you can fully support Brexit but still be pissed about them.
Read 11 tweets
21 Dec 20
The best argument for transition extension was always that Covid would interfere with government and business preperations.

I wrote this in April, and it appears to be aging better than the hundreds of comments under it telling me to fuck off.

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/…
Just in case you're paywalled or lazy:

The FTA negotiations are and we're the least significant argument for transition extension.

A deal could have been signed and ratified in July and I'd still suggest a transition extension to get business and government ready.
were*, obviously.
Read 4 tweets
18 Dec 20
1/ The EU calculation on fish is relatively simple and very cold blooded (sorry). The latest Barnier comments reflect that.

It wants access to UK waters for its vessels and is seeking to trade for it from a position of strength.

That strength is the threat of tariffs.
2/ The EU wants to avoid a future negotiation where it is seeking access to UK waters without the threat of tariffs in its arsenal.

That's why it wants fish included in this deal and why Barnier wants the ability to leverage tariffs if EU vessels are locked out in the future.
3/ The EU aren't stupid. If this deal locks in some access for 5 years and then goes to a bilateral negotiation untied to anything else, what does year 6 look like?

The Sun:
"PRIME MINISTER DARREN GRIMES TELLS EUROPIRATES NON FISH, NON WAY"

They want to retain leverage.
Read 4 tweets
17 Dec 20
I know the media is eager to points score who 'won' or 'surrendered' on the final outstanding issues in this negotiation.

The fact is, regardless of who moves, where, and how far on fishing, governance and LPF, the final deal will be good for both the EU and UK. 🤷‍♂️
On fish, the worst case scenario for the UK is that the status quo is maintained in a tiny sector.

The worst case scenario for the EU is they'll have negotiate annually for access to UK waters on behalf of a tiny sector.
On LPF, the worst case scenario for the UK is that at some point in the future, their regulations fall so far behind the EU's that they lose some of the market access this deal secures.

For the EU, it's that in that hypothetical, they have fewer options.
Read 5 tweets
8 Dec 20
1/ If you want an insight into what being a trade negotiator is actually like, this is a pretty illustrative example.

EU Red Line: "EU staff need to be present and on the ground to monitor implementation."

UK Red Line: "No EU office in NI."

Compromise: 👇👇👇
2/ You can have personal views on the merits of those red-lines, but as negotiators that's not your role.

Once you've clearly explained your sides, fully understood theirs, and established to your satisfaction neither side is moving... your job is to invent space between them.
3/ Making EU officials hot-desk instead of having a building may not change much commercially or practically, but it achieves the EU objective of oversight while respecting the UK opposition to a permanent office presence.

It may sound silly, but it clearly worked. Go team.
Read 4 tweets
2 Dec 20
1/ I don't think the EU assumes the UK will come begging them for an FTA in early 2021.

I think SOME in the EU think the UK will revert to something like its No-Deal tariffs from 2019, which would significantly lessen the tariff blow on EU producers.

gov.uk/government/new…
2/ As I've written before, the current slate of UK tariffs seems designed around assuming tariff-eliminating deal with the EU.

Without one, UK tariffs fall on a huge range of products like food which UK consumers want and currently source from the EU.

Bad for prices.
3/ In time, the UK might find non-EU suppliers either domestically, from developing countries it grants preferences to, or from FTA partners.

Alternatively, consumer preferences might shift.

That's long term though.

In the short term: price hikes. Unpopular ones.
Read 6 tweets

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