UPDATE: A grim set of official figures today on deaths means my estimate of the number of people in the UK who have died since mid March linked to coronavirus is


After a recent acceleration, UK is on course to hit 100,000 by Saturday

Patterns of bank holidays around the end of the year add to uncertainty, but I have been cautious and there has been a recent
inflection point in excess deaths in the data across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland

Excess deaths rose from mid Dec

Excess deaths had been lower than deaths in hospitals for the whole of the second wave, but in the past two weeks that has no longer been the case.

It suggests fewer people dying of Covid-19 were particularly vulnerable and would have probably died anyway.

For the year as a whole, as @NickStripe_ONS showed last week, deaths have been extremely high on any measure


@NickStripe_ONS I kept the parameters of the updating model as constant as possible, but the evidence has overwhelmed them even though there are bank holiday issues to resolve.

Let's hope vaccinations soon put a dent into the numbers of very elderly people who are dying

@NickStripe_ONS The regional patterns of excess deaths in the latest data fit with the regional pattern of infection, so this is a very difficult period we again entering



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More from @ChrisGiles_

11 Jan
There is a remorseless mathematical connection between infections of the over 60s, hospital admisstions, occupied beds, ICU numbers and deaths.

None is looking great - hence the huge concern about the NHS ft.com/content/03e1f5… via @financialtimes
@FinancialTimes Infections of the Over 60s is still rising fast in the latest data. Nothing more than the faintest glimmer of a turning point
@FinancialTimes The same with admissions in England, which have quadrupled since early December
Read 7 tweets
8 Jan
What to make of 1,325 deaths within 28 days of a postive Covid test today

A record on this measure

1) It's bad

2) With 40% not in hospitals, suggests a rising crisis in people's homes and care homes again - that's really bad...

But Image
3) It does need to be put in the context of excess deaths which are running at about 300 a day up to Christmas

4) And since the daily figure was a severe underestimate of the spring peak, this is not a record yet. Excess deaths peaked at about 2,000 a day in April Image
Don't let the more modest excess deaths so far fool anyone into thinking this is mild or like a bad flu year

Since October there have been 19,000 excess deaths in England and Wales. In the last big flu season (2017-18), there were 7,762 in the same period.
Read 6 tweets
6 Jan
Another set of grim Covid data today - daily cases, hospitalisations and deaths up...

That's the big news, but there are a few silver linings in the details of the data

1/ ft.com/content/9f80bc… via @FinancialTimes
@FinancialTimes Some of the worst hit areas for positive cases have stopped getting worse. This is Medway, but the feature applies more generally...

This is Medway, but it applies to v local areas too.

No one should get too excited, the numbers show little sign of decling much

2/ Image
@FinancialTimes There has been somethingof a levelling off in London too in the random testing done by ONS

V early days, but gives hope that the lockdown can work to reduce caseload

3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
6 Jan
UPDATE: following the latest ONS figures, my best estimate of the number of excess UK deaths linked to Covid-19 since mid-March is


The increase in the second wave has been slower, but longer and more relentless than the first wave

1/ Image
The estimates this week are more speculative than normal because

a) Scotland and Northern Ireland have not published weekly mortality figures since before Christmas

b) England and Wales data had one bank holiday rather than 2 for this week in the year

This means...

If I had used the raw ONS figures, (3,566 excess deaths E&W) it would have produced estimates too high and obviously wrong.

So I had to make adjustments, which I hope were reasonable to keep the trend stable. We will find out next week.

Read 6 tweets
3 Jan
Why the prime minister said additional measures might* be necassary


1) Almost no local areas in England are now Covid-free (worse than early Nov)
2) Local areas with high prevalence rates are soaring

There is an exception for the very highest rates, which is probably just noise (but something to watch)
3) And the mean rate per local area (middle layer super output areas with roughly 7,500 in each) is rising very rapidly

Note: this data is up to 28 December. When 29th is added today, it will look worse
Read 5 tweets
30 Dec 20
After the latest official figures of UK deaths, the latest estimate of the number of excess deaths since mid March across the UK is


This is a depressing and very high number, but the latest trends are interesting and have some more positive elements

Of this estimate 82,500 have been registered with 3,500 estimated to have occured since the latedt data which runs to 18 December

Interesting facts:

The daily pattern of excess deaths has not accelerated yet even though case numbers have since the end of the November lockdown
There are now 50% more deaths reported by the government & on death certificates than excess deaths in corresponding periods (note December here is not the full month)

This means:
- testing is working now
- Some of those dying with Covid would have died anyway

Read 6 tweets

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