What to make of 1,325 deaths within 28 days of a postive Covid test today
A record on this measure
1) It's bad
2) With 40% not in hospitals, suggests a rising crisis in people's homes and care homes again - that's really bad...
But
3) It does need to be put in the context of excess deaths which are running at about 300 a day up to Christmas
4) And since the daily figure was a severe underestimate of the spring peak, this is not a record yet. Excess deaths peaked at about 2,000 a day in April
Don't let the more modest excess deaths so far fool anyone into thinking this is mild or like a bad flu year
Since October there have been 19,000 excess deaths in England and Wales. In the last big flu season (2017-18), there were 7,762 in the same period.
After the latest official figures of UK deaths, the latest estimate of the number of excess deaths since mid March across the UK is
86,000
This is a depressing and very high number, but the latest trends are interesting and have some more positive elements
1/
Of this estimate 82,500 have been registered with 3,500 estimated to have occured since the latedt data which runs to 18 December
Interesting facts:
The daily pattern of excess deaths has not accelerated yet even though case numbers have since the end of the November lockdown
There are now 50% more deaths reported by the government & on death certificates than excess deaths in corresponding periods (note December here is not the full month)
This means:
- testing is working now
- Some of those dying with Covid would have died anyway
Traffic will be low as huge stockpiling to avoid Brexit. The UK won’t be doing much checking; it isn’t ready. And the French infrastructure is impressive at the tunnel and the port
Here is the new customs bays for example, ready to go and look how empty Calais port was
2/
The big question will be the numbers of trucks that rock up without the required £7bn a year of new red tape paperwork
(Yes this is a non tariff barrier Boris)
There are 250 lorry parking places at the French side of the tunnel and customs agents ready to help.
3/
When it's all pretty grim on the Covid-19 front, here is a piece of relatively good news...
There are now fewer excess deaths in the second wave than we might have expected
1/
In March and April, there were regularly roughly twice the number to total excess deaths than those recorded by the government after a positive Covid-19 test
In October, November and December, there have been fewer - about 75 to 80% of the number from the daily totals
why?
2/
Obviously, we cannot know for sure, but here are some potential explanations
-It's a blip and excess deaths will start rising.
Unlikely, unless register offices have suddenly changed their practices
3/