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6 Jan, 6 tweets, 2 min read
UPDATE: following the latest ONS figures, my best estimate of the number of excess UK deaths linked to Covid-19 since mid-March is

89,300

The increase in the second wave has been slower, but longer and more relentless than the first wave

1/ Image
The estimates this week are more speculative than normal because

a) Scotland and Northern Ireland have not published weekly mortality figures since before Christmas

b) England and Wales data had one bank holiday rather than 2 for this week in the year

This means...

2/
If I had used the raw ONS figures, (3,566 excess deaths E&W) it would have produced estimates too high and obviously wrong.

So I had to make adjustments, which I hope were reasonable to keep the trend stable. We will find out next week.

3/
It's better to make arbitrary adjustments to a model than keep it consistent but obviously wrong (I think, but neither is optimal)

The daily pattern shows excess deaths running about 300 a day - this is not flu - or OK - or nothing to worry about

4/ Image
But the better news is that excess deaths are lower than deaths recorded within 28 days of a positive test.

It implies that in the spring, those dying of Covid were not tested. Now some of those dying of Covid would have died anyway in all probability (but far from all)

5/ Image
Most of the Covid data is pretty bleak at the moment for obvious reasons. Excess deaths is one small silver lining.

There are a few others, which I will tweet about later with a new FT article

ENDS

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Chris Giles Profile picture
8 Jan
What to make of 1,325 deaths within 28 days of a postive Covid test today

A record on this measure

1) It's bad

2) With 40% not in hospitals, suggests a rising crisis in people's homes and care homes again - that's really bad...

But Image
3) It does need to be put in the context of excess deaths which are running at about 300 a day up to Christmas

4) And since the daily figure was a severe underestimate of the spring peak, this is not a record yet. Excess deaths peaked at about 2,000 a day in April Image
Don't let the more modest excess deaths so far fool anyone into thinking this is mild or like a bad flu year

Since October there have been 19,000 excess deaths in England and Wales. In the last big flu season (2017-18), there were 7,762 in the same period.
Read 6 tweets
Chris Giles Profile picture
6 Jan
Another set of grim Covid data today - daily cases, hospitalisations and deaths up...

That's the big news, but there are a few silver linings in the details of the data

1/ ft.com/content/9f80bc… via @FinancialTimes
@FinancialTimes Some of the worst hit areas for positive cases have stopped getting worse. This is Medway, but the feature applies more generally...

This is Medway, but it applies to v local areas too.

No one should get too excited, the numbers show little sign of decling much

2/ Image
@FinancialTimes There has been somethingof a levelling off in London too in the random testing done by ONS

V early days, but gives hope that the lockdown can work to reduce caseload

3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
Chris Giles Profile picture
3 Jan
Why the prime minister said additional measures might* be necassary

*will

1) Almost no local areas in England are now Covid-free (worse than early Nov)
2) Local areas with high prevalence rates are soaring

There is an exception for the very highest rates, which is probably just noise (but something to watch)
3) And the mean rate per local area (middle layer super output areas with roughly 7,500 in each) is rising very rapidly

Note: this data is up to 28 December. When 29th is added today, it will look worse
Read 5 tweets
Chris Giles Profile picture
30 Dec 20
After the latest official figures of UK deaths, the latest estimate of the number of excess deaths since mid March across the UK is

86,000

This is a depressing and very high number, but the latest trends are interesting and have some more positive elements

1/
Of this estimate 82,500 have been registered with 3,500 estimated to have occured since the latedt data which runs to 18 December

Interesting facts:

The daily pattern of excess deaths has not accelerated yet even though case numbers have since the end of the November lockdown
There are now 50% more deaths reported by the government & on death certificates than excess deaths in corresponding periods (note December here is not the full month)

This means:
- testing is working now
- Some of those dying with Covid would have died anyway

3/
Read 6 tweets
Chris Giles Profile picture
29 Dec 20
So,

I went to Calais yesterday to look at plans for implementing the Brexit deal at the most important freight border...

...don’t expect a rerun of the pre-Christmas chaos and queues, operators say

1/ ft.com/content/0e076e…
Why?

Traffic will be low as huge stockpiling to avoid Brexit. The UK won’t be doing much checking; it isn’t ready. And the French infrastructure is impressive at the tunnel and the port

Here is the new customs bays for example, ready to go and look how empty Calais port was

2/
The big question will be the numbers of trucks that rock up without the required £7bn a year of new red tape paperwork

(Yes this is a non tariff barrier Boris)

There are 250 lorry parking places at the French side of the tunnel and customs agents ready to help.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Chris Giles Profile picture
22 Dec 20
When it's all pretty grim on the Covid-19 front, here is a piece of relatively good news...

There are now fewer excess deaths in the second wave than we might have expected

1/
In March and April, there were regularly roughly twice the number to total excess deaths than those recorded by the government after a positive Covid-19 test

In October, November and December, there have been fewer - about 75 to 80% of the number from the daily totals

why?

2/
Obviously, we cannot know for sure, but here are some potential explanations

-It's a blip and excess deaths will start rising.

Unlikely, unless register offices have suddenly changed their practices

3/
Read 10 tweets

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