1/ This from today reminds me of conversations I had with Bill Gurley and Benchmark partners in 1999 when I was spending a lot of time in their office. We talked about "software in a box."
2/ I wrote about the "software in a box" business model in this post: 25iq.com/2018/03/10/pel… I wrote in that post:
'Some people like to say 'every business is now a technology business.' The more precisely accurate statement is “every business is a software/SaaS business.”
3/ We are still in the first inning when it comes to how software will impact value chains in business.
Charlie Munger says look for a tailwind in you career. Software is that tailwind.
Steve Jobs in 2004:
“More and more [devices] look like software in a box."
4/ Mr. McGuire: "I want to say one word to you. Just one word. Are you listening?"
Benjamin: "Yes."
McGuire: "Software.
The probability of career success is far higher if you are in business that is growing because it is becoming more valuable. Tailwinds make life better."
5/ Benjamin: "That's more than one word."
McGuire: "In an industry that's growing like software there's more opportunity since the economic pie is expanding. Things like battlefield promotions are more likely. There's less politics if there's growing opportunity for everyone."
6/ If you don't see that the parts of every value chain which create and use better software aren't capturing more and more of the profit pool, you aren't paying attention.
Let's say you are trying to tell a story to investors about how your business is creating value. One way to do that is to create a value metric. John Malone invented EBITDA. McCaw Cellular invented MHz/POP.
The first time people recall using the MHz/POP was when McCaw sold an equity stake to Scripps Howard in 1983. As with EBITDA, the metric was intended to indicate the business would be able to generate cash. Any real business operator knows running out of cash is unforgivable.
3/ A newspaper company invested in early cellular? a DM asks me. They still flowed a lot of cash then and invested in cable and broadcast too. Why did these companies sell or distribute their cellular and cable shares ? Because it hurt "earnings," which was idiotic then and now.
1/ Some people believe on Tuesday, the December quarter "earnings season" kicks into a higher gear.
Smart investors know this is actually the "free cash flow season" and their better investing outcomes reflect that realization.
Why the focus on earnings? People are lazy.
2/ Justifying your professional existence is hard. Early securities analysts had to find ways to convince customers they could predict which stocks would outperform others. They naturally were attracted to "earnings" due to a mental bias Charlie Munger calls "overcounting."
3/ Everyone knows the history of depreciation and why tax laws are focused on earnings. home.treasury.gov/system/files/1… The good news for everyone is that they can decide to invest based based on the metric which actually determines value (AKA, free cash flow). Differential advantage!
"The total number of early stage deals in the US decreased for the second year in a row, sinking to 6,022" claims this report: straitstimes.com/business/start…
Wait! This number is not like the other! It's lower. And the previous report says global. Maybe some definitions and notes about methods would, you know, be helpful. Just a thought. news.crunchbase.com/news/global-20…
"Applying the mental model of ‘mean reversion’ for a ‘fade-defying’ business model will lead to an erroneous conclusion. If the mental models are wrong, the spreadsheet model will be wrong. Period."
2/ "The onslaught of startups with readily available capital and minimal barriers to scaling means that the durability of legacy businesses has never been more vulnerable or uncertain.' Howard Marks in today's memo.
1/ This Howard Marks memo describes why I am a "Charlie Munger investor" and why the term "value investor" is dead for me. oaktreecapital.com/insights/howar…
"There is no such thing as value and growth investing.” Buffett
"Dividing it up into 'value' and 'growth' is twaddle." Munger
2/ "Value can be found in many forms. The fact that a company grows rapidly, relies on intangibles such as technology for its success and/or has a high p/e ratio shouldn’t mean it can’t be invested in on the basis of intrinsic value." Howard Marks
3/ If a genie asked me what meeting I would have liked to attended as a fly on the table, very high on the list would be one of the breakfasts where Charlie Munger and Howard Marks exchanged ideas. Here's some of the memo I cited in the first tweet:
Clue: He worked on capital hill for a US senator who was President Pro Tem of the Senate, Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee and who was third in the line of succession to be US President.
What was Bill Gates doing in 1978 when I was doing this? He was working in New Mexico (the move to Washington state happened on January 1, 1979).
Microsoft had 1978 year end sales of $1 million and famously it had 13 employees. The third language product COBOL shipped in June.
We were both born in 1955. That was a lucky birth year since we were too young for the Vietnam draft and too old to be ruined by disco music.
Microprocessors, which arrived when we were attending high school, would create huge opportunities for our birth cohort. Big tailwind.