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Paul Poast

20 Jan, 24 tweets, 7 min read

@nytimes

In the final hours of Trump's Presidency, it's worth asking: what just happened?

With respect to foreign policy, Trump told us exactly what was going to happen...back in 1987. That's when he placed a full page open letter in @nytimes @washingtonpost & @BostonGlobe

[THREAD]

@Oprah

He then followed up that letter with an interview on @Oprah

oprah.com/own-oprahshow/…

At the time, there was speculation that the letter signaled his intent to run for President in 1988

nytimes.com/1987/09/02/nyr…

@BuzzFeed

This letter -- and what it might foreshadow for Trump's presidency -- was discussed by @BuzzFeed back in 2015 (when Trump was still a candidate)

buzzfeednews.com/article/ilanbe…

The letter is remarkable in that it has all the hallmarks of what would become the Trump foreign policy.

These include...

...ridicule of existing US foreign policy because it lacked "toughness" (or, more specifically, "backbone")

theatlantic.com/politics/archi…

...a focus on those "forgotten" at home due to US efforts abroad

time.com/4804333/donald…

...complaints about free-riding allies

foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/05/tru…

...questioning US policy in the Persian Gulf region

foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/15/car…

...placing "taxes" (i.e. tariffs) on other countries so taxes could be lowered at home

vox.com/policy-and-pol…

...make other countries pay

nytimes.com/2019/01/11/us/…

...and claiming the US is being laughed at

bbc.com/news/av/world-…

Note: The world did LITERALLY laugh at Trump

I have to admit, I'm surprised this line never reappeared during the past 4 years (it's actually pretty good)

"we protect ships we don't own, carrying oil we don't need, destined for allies who won't help."

Notice how the letter ends with "let's not let our GREAT country be laughed at anymore."

Precursor to #MAGA for sure

So the perceived need to reset US foreign policy by putting "America First" had been in Trump's mind since at least the late 1980s.

https://twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1309110678490353664

As I've tweeted before, the trends creating that perception only heightened over the subsequent decades.

https://twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1309110678490353664

https://twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1051888359449210881

So I've changed my mind a bit on Trump. Originally, I thought he wanted to "return to the '80s", which I tweeted here...

https://twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1051888359449210881

https://twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1128850004993560577

...& here

https://twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1128850004993560577

Now I think he was disgusted by 1980s US Foreign Policy and didn't see anything happen over the subsequent decades to change those trends. Hence #MAGA and "America First".

He wasn't trying to be the "Second Reagan"; he was trying to be the "Anti-Reagan" (&, related, anti-George HW Bush)

washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/0…

For all of the talk of Trump being naive and ill-informed on foreign policy...

newyorker.com/news/news-desk…

... his views were nevertheless very consistent (and, in some ways, coherent)

politico.com/magazine/story…

So as Biden begins his Presidency, his foreign policy team must keep in mind that Trump's foreign policy views didn't emerge recently: they were long held and long resonated with a fair portion of the American public.

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More from @ProfPaulPoast

Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

17 Jan

The Capitol Attacks make clear that the US can't lead abroad if democracy is undermined at home.

MLK taught that same lesson...we just didn't learn it.

[THREAD]

In particular, I am referring to the warnings and lessons in King's 1967 "Beyond Vietnam" Speech

kinginstitute.stanford.edu/king-papers/do…

King had become an outspoken critic of the war. This is not surprising. In his 1964 Nobel Prize speech, he highlighted war as the third great plague on modern society (the other two being racial injustice and poverty)
nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1…

Read 19 tweets

Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

12 Jan

Was the attack on the US Capitol an attempted coup?

Rather than debate that question here (or in another forum), I'm making it an assignment. Specifically, I'm asking my Quantitative Security students to determine if it belongs in our coup/attempted coup datasets.

[THREAD]

A core goal of this course is to introduce students to how Large-N data on violence and security are created.

We put WAY TOO much emphasis on estimators & software (Stata v R 🙄); not enough on the quality of the data going into the analysis.

@johncarey03755

First, what happened? @johncarey03755 offers a succinct explainer

facebook.com/Dartmouth/vide…

Read 21 tweets

Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

8 Jan

According to The Polity Project, the US is no longer a democracy.

Why does that matter? Why is the Polity Project wrong?

[THREAD]

@freedomhouse

Why does the Polity score matter?

There are a host of other democracy measures out there, such as @freedomhouse or @vdeminstitute.

But the Polity Project offers what is probably the most widely used social science measure of a country's regime type.

The Polity Project assigns to every country in the world from 1800 to the present an annual "Polity score" from -10 to 10.

10 = Purely Democratic
-10 = Purely Autocratic

Read 28 tweets

Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

7 Jan

Rather than share an "IR Book of the Week", here are 5 political science books (and 1 history book) shaping how I'm processing and understanding this moment in America (largely from a Comparative politics perspective)

[THREAD]

Sarah Birch on violence as an instrument for manipulating election outcomes.

press.princeton.edu/books/paperbac…

@monika_nalepa

@monika_nalepa's work on transitional justice. Addresses how societies (namely new governments) come to terms and address the wrongs committed by the previous government.

cambridge.org/core/books/ske…

Read 7 tweets

Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

6 Jan

Political Scientist here:

Yes, that is political violence.

Yes, this is an attempted coup.

Yes, the US Polity score will take a hit.

To elaborate:

- "electoral violence" to be exact.

- military wasn't involved (canonical case), but *attempt* is key (and that it was incited by commander in chief is significant).

- I say it goes to 6. Democracy held, but we ain't "consolidated"

@_ChristinaBoyes

Though (h/t @_ChristinaBoyes) it appears that the Polity Project had already downgraded the US to a 5 (systemicpeace.org)

Read 14 tweets

Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

1 Jan

When teaching Intro to International Relations, I love referencing "IR Movie Easter eggs": explicit international politics lessons/references from movies NOT overtly about international politics.

For those teaching IR classes this coming term, here are my 10 favorite!

A quick note on the rankings: They basically go from #10 "Not subtle and sort of critical to the plot" to #1 "very subtle and not essential at all to the plot at all"

But all were probably unexpected when you sat down to watch the movie for the first time !

#10 Captain America: Civil War

Was NOT expecting a super hero movie to offer a one-scene master-class in the meaning of sovereignty, power, and legitimacy in international politics