President Joe Biden’s planned US$1.9trn fiscal support package for the US economy may provide a metaphorical shot in the arm for at least some emerging markets, partially offsetting the negative economic effects caused by the delayed rollout of actual coronavirus inoculations.
With US consumers likely to spend much of their cash handouts on imported goods, Biden’s package is good news for Asia’s emerging market exporters. Meanwhile, domestic demand in the emerging world is set to remain subdued through 2021.
If anyone still had doubts, this week European Central Bank meeting was a convincing reminder that negative interest rate policies and quantitative easing are here to stay.
For the eurozone banking sector, this is a triple hit to profitability as reserves are taxed instead of being remunerated, interest rates are low and the yield curve is flat.
A modest consolation is the extension of the -1% rate on the ECB's long term refinancing operation (TLTRO) from June 2021 to June 2022. The money banks can earn by borrowing from the ECB more than compensates for the cost banks have to pay on heir reserves at the ECB.