Thread by @lxeagle17

The problem with assuming an R+9 national environment is anything more than a tail probability is

(1) coalitions have changed and the realignment acceleration in 2010 really hurt Democrats. Opposite case here.

(2) The nation is now like a median D+3 in general.

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1352329977711235072

If a red wave is to hit, here's what it consists of:

(1) differential turnout in suburbs leading to the Democratic base staying home
(2) large reversion with college+ whites
(3) continued struggles with Hispanics.

I'm skeptical of all of these things happening at once...

(1) That's a dangerous assumption to make that the Democratic base will be super depressed, especially given what we've seen proposed recently and given the fact that a new stimulus is planned.
(2) What from GA makes us think lots of reversion among college+ whites is coming?

(3) The lower-propensity Hispanic voters tended to vote more R than the higher-propensity one. Ossoff and Warnock saw a reversion to Clinton/Obama level numbers with Hispanics in the runoffs, and that's part of what helped them clinch the state. Who do we think votes in midterms?

None of this is to rule out a red wave, but it's all reasons that I find it more unlikely than not.

I mean, a universe does exist where it's R+9. But one also exists in which the COVID recovery means we get an environment that mirrors 2002...and I find that more likely right now