The responses to this are absurdly stupid. We passed 410,000 deaths yesterday. Anyone dying for the next several weeks contracted #COVID19 before 1/20, and the worst daily toll will likely hit in around a week (~5,000).
2/28 = 38 days from now. 90K/38 = ~2,400/day.
2/28 = 38 days from now. 90K/38 = ~2,400/day.
https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1352343429016129536
Even if Biden were somehow able to magically bring the total number of new cases down to 0 *TODAY* that'd still be a good 75,000 more Americans dying by mid-February.
And we've been *averaging* 220,000 cases/day in January so far.
And we've been *averaging* 220,000 cases/day in January so far.
Let's say that Biden's #COVID19 team were able to (again, magically) reduce the number of new cases by 5% *each and every day* *starting today* (again, magic!). That would still mean another 130,000 or so deaths by the end of March (at which point it'd be down to ~250/day).
Let's look at something *slightly* more realistic: Let's say it takes another 10 days for @POTUS Biden to begin ramping up the #COVID19 federal response, and this, combined w/improved mask mandate compliance, spring weather etc reduced new cases by 2% each day after that...
In that scenario, we'd be looking at ~200K/day thru 1/31, then dropping off 2% per day starting in February. That would get us down to ~5K new cases/day by the end of *July*, with another ~270K dead (~680K total). After that we'd be looking at perhaps ~100 dying per day.
If you stick w/that "2% drop/day" projection, it'd be down to just ~200 new cases/day by the 12/31/21, w/~410K dead under Trump & another ~275K during Biden's 1st year, or ~685K total.
Obviously seasonal ebb/waves alone mean no way of such a neat pattern, but you get my point.
Obviously seasonal ebb/waves alone mean no way of such a neat pattern, but you get my point.
As others have noted, this is absurdly simplistic: In addition to seasonal changes, this doesn't account for the new strains which are more contagious.
In short, we blew it last year due to a combination of Trump Admin incompetence & selfishness by too much of the public.
In short, we blew it last year due to a combination of Trump Admin incompetence & selfishness by too much of the public.
All of this also assumes that the vast majority of the public (as well as state AND LOCAL officials) actually COMPLY with mask mandates, get vaccinated when they're able to and so forth.
If EVERYTHING goes PERFECTLY, we MIGHT get out of this with less than ~700K dead in the end.
If EVERYTHING goes PERFECTLY, we MIGHT get out of this with less than ~700K dead in the end.
Now let's look at a less optimistic scenario: 220K/day thru 1/31 (instead of 200K/day), followed by a 1% drop/day after that (instead of 2%).
That gets us to 463K additional deaths by the end of 2021, at which point we'd be down to ~6K cases and ~120 deaths per day.
That gets us to 463K additional deaths by the end of 2021, at which point we'd be down to ~6K cases and ~120 deaths per day.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
