In how many ways does it need to be said that it is the UK government's choice to go for a hard Brexit with minimal regulatory alignment and maximum checks?
Also the choice of the UK government to fail to understand that paperwork was the inevitable outcome of their Brexit, and not to give enough time for adjustment to business, which they are now having to compensate business for.
All exacerbated by the Prime Minister's negotiating style of talking tough in the media (supposedly threatening the other side), over promising to domestic audiences ('no PM would...') and then folding completely to get a deal (Northern Ireland, fish).
Best guess is that over time the UK government will follow all international precedent by prioritising trade relations with neighbours, but probably getting a bad deal by doing so under the veil of threats ('performative divergence' - @SamuelMarcLowe).
Incidentally those far flung trade deals with the likes of Australia and the US don't remove the checks we've just seen introduced with the US either. They are mostly tariff reduction, which as pointed out previously, offers only limited benefits.
Anyway, as before, we await from the UK government a real trade strategy (from any government, perhaps the Welsh or Scottish could step in?) which removes the bombast and gives us some tangible focus - preferably on services and non-tariff barriers with closer markets.
PS will wait the @pmdfoster thread version of this long-read, but the sheer number of UK negotiating errors is something - worse deals on fish and level playing field to prove we could get the thin deal that didn't need proving 🤦♂️ft.com/content/cc6b0d…
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Daily Mail discovers borders, blames French for inventing them, then in the second half of the article gets a bit closer to the truth that this is the new normal. dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9…
The French will not be checking the content of lorries coming direct from Ireland on this ferry. Thus wondering if the border checks between Britain and France are the fault of the French or the British??? 🤔
So if trade between Ireland and France takes place without checks and trade between Britain and France, and indeed Britain and Ireland, has checks, which of the three countries do we think are the greater champions of 'free trade'?
First priority with regard to the US should not be a full trade deal but removing the scotch tariffs imposed by the US as part of the Boeing / Airbus case. ft.com/content/c26c55…
Then after sorting the Scotch tariffs the UK could actually lay out some realistic priority offensive interests because at the moment we don't know if a US trade deal would remove any barriers to UK exports. The US not being generous in trade deals. ft.com/content/c26c55…
Finally, after removing scotch tariffs and identifying priority interests we also need a policy on whether or not we accept US food in the UK. NB Trade and Agriculture commission likely to recommend we do not. In which case probably no deal anyway.
The choice made by the UK government was for friction with the EU over any kind of regulatory alignment. This is the natural consequence. It is a big problem for the country that neither government nor opposition will admit it.
In particular Keir Starmer saying no case for major renegotiation of the EU deal needs to be reversed if Labour is to have any credibility on the issue. It is normal politics for an opposition to say government did not get a good deal, and true in this case.
If Labour can't say they will get a better deal with the EU than the government it is hard to know what their purpose is as an opposition. Yes difficult politics, red wall etc, but you can't just say nothing because being afraid isn't a great look either.
Bad news now, but there's a bigger theme missed - which is how much UK exports to the EU are now at the mercy of regulatory changes over which we'll have no direct influence, but should be trying to lobby.
I don't think we have understood yet as a country the change that has happened. This isn't predominantly teething troubles, but an entirely new trading relationship. And that talking tough about this may make us feel better but will achieve precisely nothing.
You can tell the government hasn't understood the changing relationship with the EU, since they have opted to prioritise pointless diplomatic gesture politics over the need to influence the very large market next door accounting for around 50% of our trade.
"One story proves I was right and aren't I a brave rebel for standing against the crowd in predicting this (even if most stories go the other way)" twitter is among the worst of all.
Brexit redux...
Winners (e.g. customs specialists)...
Losers (e.g. seafood sellers)...
More trade barriers = (all else being equal) more losers than winners...
Teething troubles and longer term adjustments...
This isn't difficult.
June last year. Turned out the PM didn't want to be the man who closed Nissan. And gave up asks on level playing field and fishing to protect it. Those threats to walk away? Turned out to be hollow. As the EU always predicted.
Nearly a day into office and Presaident Biden still hasn't fixed global trade policy. By the end of day perhaps?
Except that as I write here, some of the issues he has to fix have been outstanding for 25 years. This is going to be tough. borderlex.net/2021/01/20/per…
US trade policy actually changed surprisingly little in the last four years, even if operation was more threatening and vulgar. Change of substance under Biden, either of the aim to set global standards, or the protectionism seems a big ask. Style will change though.
Which remains a reason to believe there may be a UK-US deal. Yes there will be an attempt to bridge US-EU differences, and I hope they work. But I'm sceptical, and if they don't, a UK-US deal could at least deliver a symbolic and easy win for the administration.