Bad news now, but there's a bigger theme missed - which is how much UK exports to the EU are now at the mercy of regulatory changes over which we'll have no direct influence, but should be trying to lobby.
I don't think we have understood yet as a country the change that has happened. This isn't predominantly teething troubles, but an entirely new trading relationship. And that talking tough about this may make us feel better but will achieve precisely nothing.
You can tell the government hasn't understood the changing relationship with the EU, since they have opted to prioritise pointless diplomatic gesture politics over the need to influence the very large market next door accounting for around 50% of our trade.
But similarly the media or consumers complaining about parcels being delayed at customs, or the producers complaining about delayed exports. That's the new normal. The only way to change it now through politics. Or changing the way we do business, as will happen.
I like to recall my conversations with former US negotiators complaining about the difficulties of dealing with EU trade and customs. Or those with Indian friends about the year the EU banned alphonso mangoes. That is now our reality as well.
The Brexiteers cheering every lorry getting through to Calais or the remainers wishing to rejoin the EU tomorrow are equally of no use whatsoever to UK business and consumers trading with the EU who need a government and other institutions working for them.
Simple questions need to be asked - who in government is in charge of the EU trading relationship, how are they collating all of the issues, which can be resolved internally, what are the priorities for raising with the EU?

These should be a priority in a serious country.
The negotiation went badly, we didn't get most of what we wanted, covid is prevalent, and government difficult. But they really need to stop playing and provide the assistance business needs, now and for the future. And the opposition should be demanding that. Not good enough.
And #ff shoutout to those working so hard across the UK to make the new trade relations work, I don't know who you all are but definitely @AllieRenison and @AnnaJerzewska, @William_Bain at BRC, @MichaelAodhan in Northern Ireland and doubtless many more 👏
Another thread from someone at the sharp end of Brexit. The same messages. How this is no big issue in Parliament should be profoundly uncomfortable for a lot more folk than it is...
Repeat, this should be a bigger deal than it appears to be. This is not a drill, this is what happens when you put up trade barriers.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

23 Jan
With regard to Scottish independence and Irish unification my biggest shift is that a previous view I would never see them in my lifetime has been reversed, now it feels like a matter of time. That isn't necessarily my choice (and it won't be anyway) just what I observe.
If the largest component in a union discovers its own nationalism you can't be surprised when the other parts do similarly. The slight oddity in the UK being the English denial that this is what is happening.
Sage thoughts from the sage. Might add, as always good to ask, what is the UK government prepared to do differently to keep Scotland and Northern Ireland?
Read 6 tweets
23 Jan
Daily Mail discovers borders, blames French for inventing them, then in the second half of the article gets a bit closer to the truth that this is the new normal. dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9…
The French will not be checking the content of lorries coming direct from Ireland on this ferry. Thus wondering if the border checks between Britain and France are the fault of the French or the British??? 🤔
So if trade between Ireland and France takes place without checks and trade between Britain and France, and indeed Britain and Ireland, has checks, which of the three countries do we think are the greater champions of 'free trade'?
Read 7 tweets
23 Jan
First priority with regard to the US should not be a full trade deal but removing the scotch tariffs imposed by the US as part of the Boeing / Airbus case.
ft.com/content/c26c55…
Then after sorting the Scotch tariffs the UK could actually lay out some realistic priority offensive interests because at the moment we don't know if a US trade deal would remove any barriers to UK exports. The US not being generous in trade deals. ft.com/content/c26c55…
Finally, after removing scotch tariffs and identifying priority interests we also need a policy on whether or not we accept US food in the UK. NB Trade and Agriculture commission likely to recommend we do not. In which case probably no deal anyway.
Read 4 tweets
23 Jan
The choice made by the UK government was for friction with the EU over any kind of regulatory alignment. This is the natural consequence. It is a big problem for the country that neither government nor opposition will admit it.
In particular Keir Starmer saying no case for major renegotiation of the EU deal needs to be reversed if Labour is to have any credibility on the issue. It is normal politics for an opposition to say government did not get a good deal, and true in this case.
If Labour can't say they will get a better deal with the EU than the government it is hard to know what their purpose is as an opposition. Yes difficult politics, red wall etc, but you can't just say nothing because being afraid isn't a great look either.
Read 7 tweets
22 Jan
"One story proves I was right and aren't I a brave rebel for standing against the crowd in predicting this (even if most stories go the other way)" twitter is among the worst of all.
Brexit redux...

Winners (e.g. customs specialists)...

Losers (e.g. seafood sellers)...

More trade barriers = (all else being equal) more losers than winners...

Teething troubles and longer term adjustments...

This isn't difficult.
June last year. Turned out the PM didn't want to be the man who closed Nissan. And gave up asks on level playing field and fishing to protect it. Those threats to walk away? Turned out to be hollow. As the EU always predicted.
Read 7 tweets
22 Jan
In how many ways does it need to be said that it is the UK government's choice to go for a hard Brexit with minimal regulatory alignment and maximum checks?

Also, that the UK's choice was a US trade deal over less friction with the EU? thetimes.co.uk/article/brusse…
Also the choice of the UK government to fail to understand that paperwork was the inevitable outcome of their Brexit, and not to give enough time for adjustment to business, which they are now having to compensate business for.
All exacerbated by the Prime Minister's negotiating style of talking tough in the media (supposedly threatening the other side), over promising to domestic audiences ('no PM would...') and then folding completely to get a deal (Northern Ireland, fish).
Read 7 tweets

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