The choice made by the UK government was for friction with the EU over any kind of regulatory alignment. This is the natural consequence. It is a big problem for the country that neither government nor opposition will admit it.
In particular Keir Starmer saying no case for major renegotiation of the EU deal needs to be reversed if Labour is to have any credibility on the issue. It is normal politics for an opposition to say government did not get a good deal, and true in this case.
If Labour can't say they will get a better deal with the EU than the government it is hard to know what their purpose is as an opposition. Yes difficult politics, red wall etc, but you can't just say nothing because being afraid isn't a great look either.
More tales of Brexit, this time featuring a couple of 'experts' (guilty...)
It can hardly be a surprise that the UK government is struggling with the EU trading relationship (even to acknowledge what it is) when no single individual is in charge of it.
A few inter departmental conversations while exports and GDP reduce before our eyes.
And yes, last one for now, some UK business could benefit from eg substituting for imports. New trade deals can help a bit. But neither of these will be equal to the economic losses from trade barriers. Basic economics.
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With regard to Scottish independence and Irish unification my biggest shift is that a previous view I would never see them in my lifetime has been reversed, now it feels like a matter of time. That isn't necessarily my choice (and it won't be anyway) just what I observe.
If the largest component in a union discovers its own nationalism you can't be surprised when the other parts do similarly. The slight oddity in the UK being the English denial that this is what is happening.
Sage thoughts from the sage. Might add, as always good to ask, what is the UK government prepared to do differently to keep Scotland and Northern Ireland?
Daily Mail discovers borders, blames French for inventing them, then in the second half of the article gets a bit closer to the truth that this is the new normal. dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9…
The French will not be checking the content of lorries coming direct from Ireland on this ferry. Thus wondering if the border checks between Britain and France are the fault of the French or the British??? 🤔
So if trade between Ireland and France takes place without checks and trade between Britain and France, and indeed Britain and Ireland, has checks, which of the three countries do we think are the greater champions of 'free trade'?
First priority with regard to the US should not be a full trade deal but removing the scotch tariffs imposed by the US as part of the Boeing / Airbus case. ft.com/content/c26c55…
Then after sorting the Scotch tariffs the UK could actually lay out some realistic priority offensive interests because at the moment we don't know if a US trade deal would remove any barriers to UK exports. The US not being generous in trade deals. ft.com/content/c26c55…
Finally, after removing scotch tariffs and identifying priority interests we also need a policy on whether or not we accept US food in the UK. NB Trade and Agriculture commission likely to recommend we do not. In which case probably no deal anyway.
Bad news now, but there's a bigger theme missed - which is how much UK exports to the EU are now at the mercy of regulatory changes over which we'll have no direct influence, but should be trying to lobby.
I don't think we have understood yet as a country the change that has happened. This isn't predominantly teething troubles, but an entirely new trading relationship. And that talking tough about this may make us feel better but will achieve precisely nothing.
You can tell the government hasn't understood the changing relationship with the EU, since they have opted to prioritise pointless diplomatic gesture politics over the need to influence the very large market next door accounting for around 50% of our trade.
"One story proves I was right and aren't I a brave rebel for standing against the crowd in predicting this (even if most stories go the other way)" twitter is among the worst of all.
Brexit redux...
Winners (e.g. customs specialists)...
Losers (e.g. seafood sellers)...
More trade barriers = (all else being equal) more losers than winners...
Teething troubles and longer term adjustments...
This isn't difficult.
June last year. Turned out the PM didn't want to be the man who closed Nissan. And gave up asks on level playing field and fishing to protect it. Those threats to walk away? Turned out to be hollow. As the EU always predicted.
In how many ways does it need to be said that it is the UK government's choice to go for a hard Brexit with minimal regulatory alignment and maximum checks?
Also the choice of the UK government to fail to understand that paperwork was the inevitable outcome of their Brexit, and not to give enough time for adjustment to business, which they are now having to compensate business for.
All exacerbated by the Prime Minister's negotiating style of talking tough in the media (supposedly threatening the other side), over promising to domestic audiences ('no PM would...') and then folding completely to get a deal (Northern Ireland, fish).