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Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
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22 Jan, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Ask Me Anything
What does potent mean? It looks like it has higher infectiousness and is deadlier.


What countries turned around their strategy?
Several. My favorite is Singapore:
It failed with its Fences and its test-trace-isolate programs in dormitories, but updated them and was able to control the virus

Australia also learned. Initially it was going the route of other Western countries, but took the Victoria outbreak seriously and has been controlled ever since.

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More from @tomaspueyo

Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
22 Jan
The new strain, B117, is probably 30% to 90% deadlier.

thesun.co.uk/news/politics/…
This was predictable.
The peak of deaths in the UK is higher than in March-April
Read 6 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
19 Jan
The hopes that QAnon will disappear with Biden’s inauguration will unfortunately be dashed.

Some followers will decamp. But a lot will be hardened.

How did we get here? What will happen? Why? And what can we do about it?
A🧵about cults & persuasion
The best lens to understand QAnon is as a cult: The 1st massive one to be born fully through social media. It is designed for Persuasion, and uses the best tools from cults.
1. Consistency
If you know a bit about Persuasion, you’ll recognize Consistency at play: Once ppl are down a path, they want to keep walking it. That’s why ppl stay in relationships or jobs they hate, for example.

influenceatwork.com/principles-of-…
Read 20 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
13 Jan
How long have you thought about picking the right company to work at? Probably not much.

That's a critical mistake. You're probably making many like this.

The time spent analyzing your options should be proportional to how expensive they are.

Time for a 🧵 on decision-making.
You might have suffered paralysis by analysis, or made decisions too rashly. What's the right balance of time needed to analyze your options?

Some ppl find a house, fall in love, and buy it on the spot. Bad.

Some spend hours comparing small items online to pick the best. Bad.
A company might make a 10-slide deck for a million-dollar decision, and a 100 slide deck to describe a process. Bad.

A company might spend months analyzing which one of 5 options to tackle, when in fact tackling them all could have only taken 4 months. Bad.
Read 11 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
13 Jan
If you're 20 and want to get married by 30, how many ppl should you date?

Math has an answer for you. 🧵
It's hard.
On one side, you need to spend some time learning the quality of your potential partners.
On the other, you nee time to snatch the best candidate.

Too little exploration, and you might marry a dud.
Too little exploitation, and you might let the Right One pass.
This is a type of logic problem called explore-exploit.

The exploration is the time you need to learn about the best solution, and the exploitation period is the time you spend finding the solution once you know what to look for.
Read 6 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
10 Jan
It sounds to me like the debate about free speech is mixing 2 things completely different: The letter & spirit of the law. I don't think that's the right debate. So let's look at Trump, Social Networks, the future of speech, and much more. 🧵
1. The 1st amendment protects PRIVATE entities from the GOV.

That means you can say whatever you want without risking penalties from the gov. That's it.

You don't get to be heard. Others don't have a duty to listen. You're free to scream in the void.
So Sen Hawley is wrong—and he knows it.


Also, Trump doesn't have a right to his Twitter, YT, FB, Snap audiences.

That's even more obvious and stupid since he can say whatever he wants in his press room and the world will listen.

Preposterous.
Read 27 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
4 Jan
Cases in the UK are up and to the right.
Probably due to the new strain.
What does that mean for your country? 🧵
Deaths are ~2 weeks delayed vs cases in the UK.
Since cases have doubled in the UK over the last 2 weeks, deaths will likely ~2x in the next 2 weeks, blowing past the April record.
Hospitalizations are already there.
Imagine the consequences for the healthcare system, and all the ppl who will also suffer because of its renewed collapse.
Read 20 tweets

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