1/ Here are the growth curves of the #B117 UK variant as the ratio between the B.1.1.7 versus other strains, for different regions (two UK regions; Denmark, Netherlands, Portugal). The the relative growth per day is indicated: [0.100] means 10% per day. 
2/ Note the logarithmic scale: exponential growth = straight line. Although recent UK data indicates that the growth decreased to ~0.03 /day in Dec [medrxiv.org/content/10.110…], the growth rate in DK, NL, and PT is all ~0.08/day. Zoomed graph:
3/ Depending on the assumed generation interval, that means that B117 has an R value between 1.4 (4 days) and 1.6 (6 days) higher than the old strain. In the Netherlands, the authorities assume a very optimistic factor 1.3 (per 4 days).
4/4 Sources: DK covid19genomics.dk/statistics, UK cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19…, PT virological.org/t/tracking-sar…. NL tweedekamer.nl/sites/default/… (badly obfuscated; recovered in picture below).
Update: here is more UK data by regions (based on population sampling and PCR-data (SGTF), not genomic analysis).
https://twitter.com/hk_nien/status/1353417085108551680
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
