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23 Jan, 11 tweets, 4 min read
#RouteMobile valuation 🧵

History :
SALES :

2018 sales : 505 cr
2020 sales : 956 cr

3Y Sales growth : 38% CAGR

PROFIT :

2018 profit : 47 cr
2020 profit : 69 cr

3Y Profit Growth : 21% CAGR
Current year results :

2021 H1 Sales growth : 55%
2021 H1 Profit growth : 131%
Major expenses :

Bulk Messaging logistics
Segment-wise revenue :
Promoter's equity investment : 57 cr
Current reserves (shareholder's equity) : 492 cr
Debt : 4 cr
ROE : 14%
Future Projection :

2030 Sales : 7,631cr
2030 Profit : 822 cr
2030 EPS : 165 rs/share
2030 CMP : 4117 rs
Route Mobile's solutions (basically customer support chat bots, and bulk messaging services)
Verdict : ROE is mediocre, relative to peers (InfoEdge, IndiaMart, Affle)

If you have to, then hold not more than 1.5% weight it the portfolio. Route can be disrupted by other messaging alternatives.

I'd prefer to fatten Info Edge & India Mart instead of diluting the portfolio.
These are the alternative messaging apps working in the sector :
@vinaytalwar

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Generic Boi Profile picture
23 Jan
Outside every small gold-smith's workshop, you'll find multiple people sifting through the wet waste in small metal pans.

When I was a small boi, I used to think these were cleaning agents employed by the shopkeeper. I was told that these people were..
..people were in fact there on their own volition. So the smol boi in me concluded that they were 'freelance cleaners' of sorts. Maybe the gold-smith would pay them later out of good will. Apparently they were sifting the gutters in the hopes of..
..hopes of finding small gold filings that may have chipped off while the gold-smith was working on making the ornaments

"Quite interesting", the smol boi in me I thought "free money, no investment other than the metal plate, no risk, just sift the dirt and catch the gold"

But,
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Generic Boi Profile picture
23 Jan
"A stock that I was watching at 500 has zoomed to 1000; I've missed it.."

No you haven't.

Even if you had caught it at 500, you'd be adding subsequent year's installments at 1000, 1500 & so on. You didn't miss the stock, you just missed your first installment.

Take it now 🤷‍♂️
Missing the lowest bottom price does not mean missing the stock. The company isn't going to shut down tomorrow. If anything, take the higher price as a confirmation of your investment thesis. Pay it and dust yourself up.
On the other hand, a stock that you feel proud of catching at the lowest bottom could turn out to be ITC, ONGC, SBI, NBCC, Hudco

Good companies raise their ticket prices faster. There's no need to rue this fact. Embrace it, pay the price, buy a ticket and ride that 🚀 to the top
Read 4 tweets
Generic Boi Profile picture
22 Jan
Internet/software sector view : LTTS and IndiaMart lead the pack.
Sector sales :

LTTS leads the pack.
Sector profits :
Read 6 tweets
Generic Boi Profile picture
22 Jan
Asset Management companies, a bird's eye view : 🧵

India has lowest AUM as a % of GDP
The AUM of Mutual Fund Industry grew at the rate of 24% CAGR from the year 2014.

AUM has increased to 30 trillion from less than 10 trillion 5 Years ago and slated to grow to 100 trillion by 2030.

In India there are total 44 AMCs, and only 4 are listed companies.
Top 5 AMCs account for appx 60% of the AUM.
Read 10 tweets
Generic Boi Profile picture
22 Jan
Alright bhailog, the aforementioned 'short term bad news/crash' event referred in the quoted tweet below has arrived as anticipated.

As was clearly stated a month ago 'current CMP (480) is bad for lumpsum'.

Snipe for Biocon in the killzone : 360 to 330.
Per my experience, a -10% gap down opening usually leads to subsequent multi-week bearishness in any stock, so don't pounce on it today. If it's falling, let it capitulate. Take keen interest in Biocon ONLY once it touches 360.
For kitten's sake, don't become bearish on Biocon only because of the price movement. Our ultimate goal is still to BUY it.

Now all the bearish news will flood the forums. Learn to recognize the pattern of news, and tune it out. Use this fall as a live learning example. 🙏
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Generic Boi Profile picture
22 Jan
About a month ago I had tweeted that Abbott could be had at better prices in coming months, while VGuard, Schaeffler, WABCO are already at their best prices.

Surfing forums today to find people saying

"Abbott le ke trap ho gaya"
"VGuard upar bhag gaya, kis level pe entry kare?"
Aisa mat karo, plis.🙏

Decide WHAT to buy first, then decide what PRICE to catch it based on its individual merits

Don't change your thesis & go bearish on a good stock when it goes down 20-30% (normal volatility range). Either average it, or wait it out. Don't act in a jiffy.
You only truly get *trapped in bad companies, and not due to bad prices in good companies. Good companies always rebound in 3-4 quarters. Use the time to buy more, guilt-free

Trapped* = your capital underperforms not just the Index but even PPF rate of returns over long periods.
Read 4 tweets

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