With regard to Scottish independence and Irish unification my biggest shift is that a previous view I would never see them in my lifetime has been reversed, now it feels like a matter of time. That isn't necessarily my choice (and it won't be anyway) just what I observe.
If the largest component in a union discovers its own nationalism you can't be surprised when the other parts do similarly. The slight oddity in the UK being the English denial that this is what is happening.
Sage thoughts from the sage. Might add, as always good to ask, what is the UK government prepared to do differently to keep Scotland and Northern Ireland?
Recall the Internal Market Bill, where Westminster said in effect any power the devolved authorities have can be overruled by the English whenever they like. Is this a solid basis for a union of equals, or can Scotland only ever be supplicants in the UK?
If Scotland says no to a US trade deal because it requires acceptance of US food rules does that matter to the UK government? Because if it doesn't, and I suspect it doesn't, then the Scots can see that pretty clearly.
And this on the economy.
All the more reason why Alex Salmond's quest for revenge is currently the best hope for survival of the union.
While the anti-lockdown extremists have poisoned the debate on lifting covid restrictions (they are good at this) I do wonder what a sensible discussion on how to ease restrictions would look like. Because we are having problems. theguardian.com/education/2021…
Would have thought first priority should be schools, particularly primary, and exam age (bad news for 11-14 year olds, but so be it). That is presumably the only indoor easing that is even possible, and is probably balances by new travel restrictions.
The next easing after schools should probably be outdoor socialising. So not reopening bars and restaurants, even socially distanced, but making us meet outside where the risk seems significantly lower.
I see this week the EU is going to break up because of poor vaccine distribution.
Wonder what the EU equivalent reporting to the UK media would be right now? "UK government, desperate to overcome world-leading covid death rates, takes gambles in vaccination programmes" perhaps?
The EU clearly is struggling with vaccine supplies right now. But the UK is struggling with hugh hospital and death rates, closed schools and the difficult of serious debate given a media inclined to amplify right wing controversialists.
Daily Mail discovers borders, blames French for inventing them, then in the second half of the article gets a bit closer to the truth that this is the new normal. dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9…
The French will not be checking the content of lorries coming direct from Ireland on this ferry. Thus wondering if the border checks between Britain and France are the fault of the French or the British??? 🤔
So if trade between Ireland and France takes place without checks and trade between Britain and France, and indeed Britain and Ireland, has checks, which of the three countries do we think are the greater champions of 'free trade'?
First priority with regard to the US should not be a full trade deal but removing the scotch tariffs imposed by the US as part of the Boeing / Airbus case. ft.com/content/c26c55…
Then after sorting the Scotch tariffs the UK could actually lay out some realistic priority offensive interests because at the moment we don't know if a US trade deal would remove any barriers to UK exports. The US not being generous in trade deals. ft.com/content/c26c55…
Finally, after removing scotch tariffs and identifying priority interests we also need a policy on whether or not we accept US food in the UK. NB Trade and Agriculture commission likely to recommend we do not. In which case probably no deal anyway.
The choice made by the UK government was for friction with the EU over any kind of regulatory alignment. This is the natural consequence. It is a big problem for the country that neither government nor opposition will admit it.
In particular Keir Starmer saying no case for major renegotiation of the EU deal needs to be reversed if Labour is to have any credibility on the issue. It is normal politics for an opposition to say government did not get a good deal, and true in this case.
If Labour can't say they will get a better deal with the EU than the government it is hard to know what their purpose is as an opposition. Yes difficult politics, red wall etc, but you can't just say nothing because being afraid isn't a great look either.
Bad news now, but there's a bigger theme missed - which is how much UK exports to the EU are now at the mercy of regulatory changes over which we'll have no direct influence, but should be trying to lobby.
I don't think we have understood yet as a country the change that has happened. This isn't predominantly teething troubles, but an entirely new trading relationship. And that talking tough about this may make us feel better but will achieve precisely nothing.
You can tell the government hasn't understood the changing relationship with the EU, since they have opted to prioritise pointless diplomatic gesture politics over the need to influence the very large market next door accounting for around 50% of our trade.