Share this page!

Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
Twitter logo
24 Jan, 6 tweets, 2 min read
NEW Against the Grain: ""The Five Questions That Will Shape the 2022 Senate Map"

"The biggest unknown for the 2022 Senate landscape: Will mainstream Republicans win nominations in key races, or will Trumpians prevail?"
njour.nl/s/712189?unloc…
1. NORTH CAROLINA: Will Lara Trump run?

"Holding Burr’s seat in North Carolina is shaping up to be a must-win if Republicans want to win back a Senate majority. They’ll need to avoid a civil war to accomplish that goal."
njour.nl/s/712189?unloc…
2. ARIZONA: Can Republicans convince Doug Ducey to run for the Senate, even though he says he’s not interested?

"Without a brand-name contender like Ducey, Republicans risk nominating an extreme candidate unable to appeal to suburbanites"
njour.nl/s/712189?unloc…
3. WISCONSIN: Will Ron Johnson retire?

"Usually, retirements aren’t a good sign for a party. But in the case of Ron Johnson, Republicans may quietly prefer having a less-polarizing candidate as their nominee."
njour.nl/s/712189?unloc…
4. GEORGIA: How will Sen. Raphael Warnock vote?

"His political standing will be directly related to whether he sees himself as a political pragmatist (as his campaign message reflected) or a progressive truth-teller (as his career as a pastor suggests)."
njour.nl/s/712189?unloc…
5. PENNSYLVANIA: Can Ryan Costello win a primary?

"If the PA GOP nominee is toxic in the vote-rich Philadelphia suburbs, it will be very difficult to win statewide."
njour.nl/s/712189?unloc…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Josh Kraushaar

Josh Kraushaar Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @HotlineJosh

Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
7 Jan
"Ossoff and Warnock prevailed in GA with the help of superior D turnout, especially among Black Georgians, which allowed them to overcome their disadvantage with voters who might have been decisive in Mr. Biden’s victory but voted Republican down-ballot"
nytimes.com/2021/01/07/ups…
"nearly all of the Democratic gains since the November election can be attributed to the relatively stronger Democratic turnout."
"Early voting data suggest [black turnout] may rise two points higher than in the general election, to a level not seen in the state since Barack Obama’s re-election bid in 2012."
nytimes.com/2021/01/07/ups…
Read 4 tweets
Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
22 Dec 20
The top 6 media markets that swung towards Biden (from '16) via @PatrickRuffini

1. Bend, OR (+11.5%)
2. Colorado Springs, CO (+8.9%)
3. Denver, CO (+8.6%)
4. Salisbury, MD (+8.25%)
5. Burlington, VT (+8.15%)
6. Baltimore, MD (+8.0%)
The top 6 media markets that swung to Trump (from '16 to '20):

1. Laredo, TX (+28.9%)
2. Harlingen, TX (+23.5%)
3. Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, FL (+14.1%)
4. Yuma, AZ (+11.7%)
5. Odessa, TX (+6.0%)
6. El Paso, TX (+5.8%)
Biggest turnout increases (from '16 to '20):

1. Austin, TX (+34%)
2. Honolulu, HI (+34%)
3. Palm Springs, CA (+32.6%)
4. Phoenix, AZ (+31.7%)
5. San Antonio, TX (+29.85%)
6. Salt Lake City, UT (+29%)
Read 4 tweets
Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
20 Dec 20
NEW Against the Grain: “Why Biden-Supporting Suburbanites Will Decide the Georgia Runoffs”

“In a base-versus-base election, they’ll determine which party’s extremes are more politically damaging.”

njour.nl/s/711796?unloc…
“Among voters who make more than $200,000 a year, Biden led by 28 points. But Ossoff won these voters by only 21 points—a notable drop-off.”

njour.nl/s/711796?unloc…
“With Republicans tying themselves even more closely to Trump in the immediate aftermath of the election, it’s possible some of those cross-pressured GOP voters in November become reluctant Democratic supporters two months later.”

njour.nl/s/711796?unloc…
Read 5 tweets
Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
23 Nov 20
IMHO: Best way to view Trump support within the GOP is to anticipate we're going back in time from early-2017.

So by summer of 2021, expect him to have as much control as in the summer of 2016 when he won the nomination (yet faced resistance from high-profile Rs like Cruz). 1/2
When it becomes clear he doesn't have the competence and discipline to "lead" a party, the support continues to dissipate from there...

late-2021, he'll have the same degree of support when he was approaching the early 2016 primaries/caucuses...
by early 2022, when Rs can't afford to nominate extremists in key SEN/GOV races, you'll see the level of support back to where it was in late 2015, not long after he first came down the elevator.
Read 6 tweets
Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
23 Nov 20
Spot on. Trumpism much more about cultural grievance than economic hardship.
that said, the country is a lot more culturally conservative than both Dems and GOP leaders appreciated! Dems created their own problems by going so far left on key cultural issues that they alienated S FL Hispanics, for instance.
my own contribution to the genre, months after Trump was first elected:
njour.nl/s/652599?unloc…
Read 4 tweets
Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
23 Nov 20
Happy Thanksgiving week!

My new Against the Grain column: “The Biggest Political Turkeys of 2020”

“The most infamous political flops of the year—from not-ready-for-prime-time candidates to campaign tactics that didn’t stand the test of time.”

njour.nl/s/711404?unloc…
1) Martha McSally, who “was one of the few frontline Republican Senate candidates to run behind President Trump; the president lost the state by a 0.3-percent margin, while she trailed Kelly by 2.4 percent.”

njour.nl/s/711404?unloc…
2) Amy McGrath, the #KYSEN challenger who raised $88M in her race against McConnell only to see him win the second-highest vote share in his Senate career

njour.nl/s/711404?unloc…
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @HotlineJosh has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @HotlineJosh!

Read all threads by @HotlineJosh