This is an interesting picture of 143 different devices that SpaceX launched this morning as part of its SmallSat Rideshare Program. You can see the Starcraft satellites efficiently stacked at the bottom and then on top a range of other devices with various shapes and sizes.
The SpaceX Falcon 9 ride-share "included 48 Earth imaging satellites dubbed SuperDoves from Planet, 17 tiny communications satellites for Toronto-based Kepler, and 30 small satellites for the US and Europe packaged by Berlin, Germany-based Exolaunch." news.google.com/articles/CAIiE…
These Starlinks are the first launched into a polar orbit enabling coverage further north, including in polar regions. Delivered to Sun-synchronous orbit of 550 km inclined 97.59 degrees to the equator. Polar orbit missions typically go from Vandenberg, but this one was Florida.
4/ The maneuver that the Falcon 9 pulls off to land is still cray. Note that the need for fuel to land means there's less payload going up but with 3 or more launches of the same reusable parts, the economics are better says Musk. Small payloads cost more per kilogram (eg $15k).
5/ A satellite must be able to talk to a gateway in Earth to enable real time communication. Over the polar regions gateways are hard to build so inter-satellite links enable a daisy chain to a gateway. These aren't laser links to ground terminals, but instead between satellites.
6/ The Starlink gateway in Alaska was confirmation some satellites would be in polar orbit. The shortest path to ground based fiber is usually to get polar traffic to that gateway via inter satellite links. Each link creates incremental latency due to on board processing.
7/ Why not put optical inter-satellite links (OISLs) on the non polar orbit constellation? Its cheaper to leave them off, creates less failure risk and conserves power to use a ground gateway. Will ocean coverage make OISls valuable at some point? Sure. spaceintelreport.com/spacex-starlin…
8/ If a particular inter-satellite link fails there is the option of the Alaska gateway or to build more polar gateways.

By putting those 10 satellites in that new polar obit at that altitude SpaceX/Starlink has "licked the cookie." They now "have dibs" on the altitude/orbit.
9/ Here's confirmation of my thesis. I win a participation trophy.

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More from @trengriffin

26 Jan
1/ "A short squeeze and a gamma trap..."

What could go right, wrong or not matter depending on your position? bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
2/ "There is a feedback loop: The stock goes up, short sellers give up, they buy stock to surrender, and their buying pushes the stock up more."

Benefits from randomness (increased potential for upside in the presence of fluctuations) = convex.

Harmed by randomness = concave.
3/ I once spent a half day walking around Seattle with Nassim Taleb talking about optionality and other ideas. It was a very interesting and enjoyable experience. It also makes for a great story, which checks the box on my test for having a great life. 25iq.com/2013/10/13/a-d…
Read 4 tweets
23 Jan
1/ I've been though several periods when stocks rose very quickly and then "repriced down" very quickly. I didn't read about these periods in a book or papers. The best explanation that fits with my experience is Per Bak's self-organised criticality. guydcutting.com/media/SOC-Scie…
2/ If you want to understand more about how complex adaptive systems and self organized criticality impact markets I suggest you read this paper by Michael Mauboussin: "THE STOCK MARKET AS A COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM." capatcolumbia.com/Articles/Maubo… The paper includes this paragraph:
3/ My take away from my experience during periods like this one is that they fit with Per Bak's sand pile model. What this means is: I deal with the risk of possible "swift downward repricing" via asset allocation. Rather than trying to time markets I calibrate my allocations.
Read 5 tweets
20 Jan
1/ This from today reminds me of conversations I had with Bill Gurley and Benchmark partners in 1999 when I was spending a lot of time in their office. We talked about "software in a box."

"Electric vehicles are more about software than hardware." wsj.com/articles/how-v…
2/ I wrote about the "software in a box" business model in this post: 25iq.com/2018/03/10/pel… I wrote in that post:

'Some people like to say 'every business is now a technology business.' The more precisely accurate statement is “every business is a software/SaaS business.”
3/ We are still in the first inning when it comes to how software will impact value chains in business.

Charlie Munger says look for a tailwind in you career. Software is that tailwind.

Steve Jobs in 2004:

“More and more [devices] look like software in a box."
Read 6 tweets
17 Jan
Let's say you are trying to tell a story to investors about how your business is creating value. One way to do that is to create a value metric. John Malone invented EBITDA. McCaw Cellular invented MHz/POP.

"across all categories MHz/POP was $0.942." fiercewireless.com/regulatory/c-b…
The first time people recall using the MHz/POP was when McCaw sold an equity stake to Scripps Howard in 1983. As with EBITDA, the metric was intended to indicate the business would be able to generate cash. Any real business operator knows running out of cash is unforgivable.
3/ A newspaper company invested in early cellular? a DM asks me. They still flowed a lot of cash then and invested in cable and broadcast too. Why did these companies sell or distribute their cellular and cable shares ? Because it hurt "earnings," which was idiotic then and now.
Read 5 tweets
17 Jan
1/ Some people believe on Tuesday, the December quarter "earnings season" kicks into a higher gear.

Smart investors know this is actually the "free cash flow season" and their better investing outcomes reflect that realization.

Why the focus on earnings? People are lazy.
2/ Justifying your professional existence is hard. Early securities analysts had to find ways to convince customers they could predict which stocks would outperform others. They naturally were attracted to "earnings" due to a mental bias Charlie Munger calls "overcounting."
3/ Everyone knows the history of depreciation and why tax laws are focused on earnings. home.treasury.gov/system/files/1… The good news for everyone is that they can decide to invest based based on the metric which actually determines value (AKA, free cash flow). Differential advantage!
Read 4 tweets
14 Jan
How exactly are all "seed and angel" rounds included in this chart when public filings aren't always available to scrape to generate this number?

Maybe there should be an asterisk which states: "That we know of"? news.crunchbase.com/news/global-20…
"The total number of early stage deals in the US decreased for the second year in a row, sinking to 6,022" claims this report: straitstimes.com/business/start…
Wait! This number is not like the other! It's lower. And the previous report says global. Maybe some definitions and notes about methods would, you know, be helpful. Just a thought. news.crunchbase.com/news/global-20…
Read 5 tweets

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