1/I've been thinking back on the Bernie movement this week. And I felt it was time for a retrospective.

So let's talk about that movement, and what it was, and how it changed our country, and how it failed to change our country.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-bernie-m…
2/Thanks to Bernie, "socialism" isn't a dirty word in America anymore.

wsws.org/en/articles/20…
3/And even the "centrist" Biden is putting forward the boldest, most progressive legislative agenda since...LBJ?

washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/…
4/So although Bernie lost the election, he seems to have moved the Overton Window to the left -- exactly as he and many of his supporters hoped.
5/It's important that we understand how radical Bernie really was -- at least, in his 2020 campaign.

Many of his proposals went far beyond Europe's policies. Even in Europe, Bernie would be solidly leftist. In America, he was truly radical. Image
6/Radical policy programs rarely win at the ballot box. And Bernie had to have known this. But sometimes, radical programs force the center-left to move leftward. And Bernie did accomplish this! Image
7/Of course, Bernie doesn't deserve sole credit for this. The country was long overdue for a leftward economic shift. And the COVID-19 pandemic, Donald Trump's failures, and Elizabeth Warren all had something to do with it too.

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More from @Noahpinion

26 Jan
1/Lots of tech companies and workers are making noises about leaving San Francisco, LA, NYC, and other "superstar" cities.

Some are predicting a shift to remote work and distributed companies.

Let's take a hard look at what that would actually require.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/can-knowledg…
2/We're all familiar with the trend of tech companies and other knowledge industries (finance, biotech, etc.) piling into a few tech hubs, raising rents and house prices.

Now some think the advent of Zoom, Slack, etc. might reverse this trend.

blog.initialized.com/2021/01/data-p… ImageImage
3/But escaping the superstar cities is going to be tough.

The forces keeping tech companies in places like SF are so strong that these regions have essentially become prisons for these companies. Image
Read 20 tweets
25 Jan
Is it morally wrong to like an animal because it looks cute?
Second question: Is it morally wrong to like a human being just because they're good-looking?
Third question: Is it morally wrong to dislike an animal just because it looks gross to you?
Read 5 tweets
23 Jan
1/Some people look at the amazing cost declines in solar power and batteries and ask "Where's the productivity growth?"

In this post, I answer that question: "It's coming."

noahpinion.substack.com/p/answering-th…
2/It's true that solar, for example, has come down in cost by a truly stunning amount.

This is a LOG plot. Check out the y-axis!
3/Some people look at this graph and ask "So, where's the productivity growth?"

Honey, you gotta actually BUILD the solar before it does anything.

applieddivinitystudies.com/stagnation/
Read 18 tweets
22 Jan
I respect disagree with this thread. The idea that hyperinflation results from a regime change is an unproven hypothesis. It's something we should be studying, yes, but for now it's just a guess.
That was supposed to be "respectfully", dang it
In particular, if we stop worrying about austerity like we used to, and then at some point we DO experience hyperinflation, the Tom Sargents of the future will look back and call our attitude shift a "regime change". And who will be able to disprove them?

Read 8 tweets
22 Jan
1/Lots of people ask me: "Noah, how much can the U.S. government borrow before bad things start happening?"

In this newsletter, I try to give a definitive answer to that question.

Unfortunately, the answer is: No one knows.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/no-one-knows…
2/Some people say that we're already heading into the danger zone with respect to debt.

My instinct is that these people are completely wrong, and we're not in danger. But I can't *prove* them wrong, because we don't actually know how much is too much.

ft.com/content/d49b53…
3/How can we think about what the government's borrowing constraint really is?

Well, it helps to do a thought experiment. Let's imagine if the government kept borrowing exponentially more. $100 trillion. $100 quadrillion. Etc.

What would happen?
Read 22 tweets
21 Jan
Biden's vaccine target should be 200 million in 100 days, not 100 million in 100 days.
I guess with only 235 million adults in the U.S. and a large fraction hesitant about taking the vaccine, 200 million probably isn't possible. But 100 million seems like a lowball.
Also, vaccine production is running at about 2 million doses a day (enough to vaccinate 1 million people), so 100 million in 100 days is probably close to the limit of production capacity unless we approve the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.

nytimes.com/2021/01/21/hea…
Read 5 tweets

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