Where do I stand?

1/ I believe Bitcoin is real + has merit as any intersubjective asset may. At least til ~2017 it was at least reliably useful as barometer of belief in itself. Also useful as speculative asset with some ignorance arbitrage and some ‘willing into existence’...
2/ As an intrinsically valued asset I have never heard a persuasive non-technical analyis (momentum/chart) of at what price Bitcoin is OVERVALUED—This case can be made for other stores of ‘value’ like gold.

MIKE has excellent analysis rooted in irrefutable science of ‘why gold’.
3/ Most of the proponents of Bitcoin invoke

scarcity, mathematical superiority, indepdence of sovereignty and central banks, the ushering of the future, young who get it vs old who dont, digital vs analog, evolving social proof of ever more reputable + sophisticated institutions
4/ But the key QUESTION worthy of debate is WHY is the price of Bitcoin rising as it has? Is its ascendancy PURELY the incremental buying of new believers confirming the wisdom + compounding wealth of HODLERS?

Or are their structural, leverage, liquidity or other market forces?
5/ If there are, what may they be? And what is the evidence for it?

It would be like me saying ‘STONKS’ because (1) the future and (2) look, they are going up. And failing to account of low rates, speculative leverage in retail margin + option accounts + momentum market markers
6/ I have known Mike @profplum99 for 10+ years, we’ve agreed/disagreed on much from tech, nuclear, China, passive v active, options, vol, macro, SPACs (he gets credit as 1st i knew to nudge me here before anyone b/c of market structural forces)

would NEVER bet against his logic

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More from @wolfejosh

25 Jan
1/ Lux likes to “BELIEVE before others UNDERSTAND”

Lux partner @zacktrak was a table-pounding true believer in Luke Schoenfelder @LASchoenfelder and the vision for @latchaccess from Day 0. Zack repeatedly said: “there is something special about Luke”.

Boy was he RIGHT... Image
2/ Lux partnership is always trying to find an angle, the variant perception others might not see. When Latch was founded there were many *direct to consumer* door-lock or doorbell players like August or Ring.

Luke insisted on NOT going direct to consumers—but developers—SMART. Image
3/ We learned a lot from Luke’s culture of “humble excellence” that touched everything from inside DESIGN (reminding us of stories of Steve Jobs wanting what couldn’t be seen to be perfect) to cutting-edge TECH hardware + software to the strategies of PARTNERING + DISTRIBUTION. Image
Read 4 tweets
22 Jan
1/ Some news—when we first shot this video revealing the inside at Lux family co @saildrone...

I could NOT show ANY footage of a secret stealth drone ship called “Surveyor” it was MASSIVE. And a massive feat of engineering...
2/ This massive engineering feat by Lux family co @saildrone was finally UNVEILED last week
3/ Nothing autonomous this large or capable has ever been built.

72 ft long
Will spend MONTHS at sea
mapping sea floor with powerful sonar
scanning ocean surface for genetic material for fish and more...

@WIRED did a tremendous job covering it...
wired.com/story/the-auto…
Read 4 tweets
21 Jan
1/ A few wildlife shots I took in Costa Rica last month.

From poisonous frogs to deadly vipers to monkeys...
2/ Sloths and bats and frogs...
3/ Exotic birds...
Read 7 tweets
17 Jan
1/ From 2.5yrs ago..

I am free market champion (abhoring corrupting crony ‘capitalism’) + I believe in path dependence from circumstances NOT of one’s choosing, misfortune and moral obligation to help.

How have pure LIBERTARIAN addressed this?
1st w/ indifference, 2nd fleeing?
2/ This was way too snarky from 1.5 yrs ago but where is the outpouring of compassionate community can-do-anything problem-solving love from this network?
3/ Some people fleeing SF for greener pastures talk about advancing “freedom + liberty”, where do moral obligations + community come in?
Read 4 tweets
15 Jan
1/ Speculation:

It may be factor rotation out of GROWTH (FAANG which may trade range bound after tractor beaming future growth to present) as well as less concentrated longer tail of broader overvaluation in Russell 2000 (all can’t be the next FAANGs)...

More flows into VALUE..
2/ A shift from NARRATIVE driven motivated buying to fundamentals (notably even classic metric driven discounted cash flow & equity risk premia (Damodaran)+ CAPE (Shiller) have shifted focus to explain investor behavior to STORIES over STORES (of value)...
3/ The 10:1 leverage driving SPAC arb participants maybe gets reduced a bit and PIPE players get reduced alot (and we go thru phase of more signal and less noise aka more quality and less crap)...
Read 6 tweets
13 Jan
1/ In preview: FLORIDA is utterly + completely ABSURD.

(as every ‘Florida Man’ meme account or Carl Hiaasen novel shows).

It’s why all the eye-rolling criticism is totally justified—

—BUT misses that entrepreneurial surprise (entropy)
is nearly 100% ASSURED.

I predict...
2/ A FL-native Latinx tech-scene billionaire in the next 4 years...

The SF tech + VC scene that has moved GIVES more proximate + more frequent chance of encounters and more access to capital + fluid connections + intros—aka R&O (“randomness + optionality”)

But most importantly—
3/ All the connections in FL are fresh + NEW.

Consider this excerpt from a brilliant SFI + Princeton researcher Simon Levin.

“..Joint partnerships that are genuinely NEW”...
Read 6 tweets

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