Thread by @wolfejosh

Where do I stand?

1/ I believe Bitcoin is real + has merit as any intersubjective asset may. At least til ~2017 it was at least reliably useful as barometer of belief in itself. Also useful as speculative asset with some ignorance arbitrage and some ‘willing into existence’...

https://twitter.com/wolfejosh/status/1353430003321454592

2/ As an intrinsically valued asset I have never heard a persuasive non-technical analyis (momentum/chart) of at what price Bitcoin is OVERVALUED—This case can be made for other stores of ‘value’ like gold.

MIKE has excellent analysis rooted in irrefutable science of ‘why gold’.

3/ Most of the proponents of Bitcoin invoke

scarcity, mathematical superiority, indepdence of sovereignty and central banks, the ushering of the future, young who get it vs old who dont, digital vs analog, evolving social proof of ever more reputable + sophisticated institutions

4/ But the key QUESTION worthy of debate is WHY is the price of Bitcoin rising as it has? Is its ascendancy PURELY the incremental buying of new believers confirming the wisdom + compounding wealth of HODLERS?

Or are their structural, leverage, liquidity or other market forces?

5/ If there are, what may they be? And what is the evidence for it?

It would be like me saying ‘STONKS’ because (1) the future and (2) look, they are going up. And failing to account of low rates, speculative leverage in retail margin + option accounts + momentum market markers

6/ I have known Mike @profplum99 for 10+ years, we’ve agreed/disagreed on much from tech, nuclear, China, passive v active, options, vol, macro, SPACs (he gets credit as 1st i knew to nudge me here before anyone b/c of market structural forces)

would NEVER bet against his logic