1/ Lux likes to “BELIEVE before others UNDERSTAND”
Lux partner @zacktrak was a table-pounding true believer in Luke Schoenfelder @LASchoenfelder and the vision for @latchaccess from Day 0. Zack repeatedly said: “there is something special about Luke”.
Boy was he RIGHT...
2/ Lux partnership is always trying to find an angle, the variant perception others might not see. When Latch was founded there were many *direct to consumer* door-lock or doorbell players like August or Ring.
Luke insisted on NOT going direct to consumers—but developers—SMART.
3/ We learned a lot from Luke’s culture of “humble excellence” that touched everything from inside DESIGN (reminding us of stories of Steve Jobs wanting what couldn’t be seen to be perfect) to cutting-edge TECH hardware + software to the strategies of PARTNERING + DISTRIBUTION.
4/ Full post from Day 0 to Today
with the BACKSTORY + WHAT’S AHEAD for @latchaccess as they go public in $1.5 billion partnership with global real estate heavyweigh @tishmanspeyer
1/ I believe Bitcoin is real + has merit as any intersubjective asset may. At least til ~2017 it was at least reliably useful as barometer of belief in itself. Also useful as speculative asset with some ignorance arbitrage and some ‘willing into existence’...
2/ As an intrinsically valued asset I have never heard a persuasive non-technical analyis (momentum/chart) of at what price Bitcoin is OVERVALUED—This case can be made for other stores of ‘value’ like gold.
MIKE has excellent analysis rooted in irrefutable science of ‘why gold’.
3/ Most of the proponents of Bitcoin invoke
scarcity, mathematical superiority, indepdence of sovereignty and central banks, the ushering of the future, young who get it vs old who dont, digital vs analog, evolving social proof of ever more reputable + sophisticated institutions
I am free market champion (abhoring corrupting crony ‘capitalism’) + I believe in path dependence from circumstances NOT of one’s choosing, misfortune and moral obligation to help.
How have pure LIBERTARIAN addressed this?
1st w/ indifference, 2nd fleeing?
2/ This was way too snarky from 1.5 yrs ago but where is the outpouring of compassionate community can-do-anything problem-solving love from this network?
It may be factor rotation out of GROWTH (FAANG which may trade range bound after tractor beaming future growth to present) as well as less concentrated longer tail of broader overvaluation in Russell 2000 (all can’t be the next FAANGs)...
2/ A shift from NARRATIVE driven motivated buying to fundamentals (notably even classic metric driven discounted cash flow & equity risk premia (Damodaran)+ CAPE (Shiller) have shifted focus to explain investor behavior to STORIES over STORES (of value)...
3/ The 10:1 leverage driving SPAC arb participants maybe gets reduced a bit and PIPE players get reduced alot (and we go thru phase of more signal and less noise aka more quality and less crap)...
1/ In preview: FLORIDA is utterly + completely ABSURD.
(as every ‘Florida Man’ meme account or Carl Hiaasen novel shows).
It’s why all the eye-rolling criticism is totally justified—
—BUT misses that entrepreneurial surprise (entropy)
is nearly 100% ASSURED.
I predict...
2/ A FL-native Latinx tech-scene billionaire in the next 4 years...
The SF tech + VC scene that has moved GIVES more proximate + more frequent chance of encounters and more access to capital + fluid connections + intros—aka R&O (“randomness + optionality”)
But most importantly—
3/ All the connections in FL are fresh + NEW.
Consider this excerpt from a brilliant SFI + Princeton researcher Simon Levin.