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AllDayFaders Profile picture
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25 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Re-read all my supply/demand (S/D) imbalance & delta hedging threads. Then observe the recent fuckery on stocks like $GME $TSLA etc

When a bunch of reddit traders & robinhooders can make established Hedgefunds eat shit, u tell me what moves price.. S/D imbalances, or valuations?
that's why I hate the usual "where do u think stock XYZ will be in X years/months" questions. i dont fucking know nor care. why? b/c even tho i can tell u all I know about their financials, i CANT predict how many will buy or sell, and that is ultimately what drives price.
So let bulls argue about what stock XYZ is worth & why it should go to Jupiter due to their expert research.

Let bears argue about why stock XYZ should go to 0 b/c of its valuations etc.

ur job is to sit back & WAIT to see who gets bagged.

Drop ur biases, FOLLOW the imbalance.
99% of ur pre-trade prep should be u going over charts, filings, & retail sentiment to try to figure out

1) who is buying?

2) who is selling?

3) which of the 2 has the most BP?

the other 1% of ur prep should be u hoping u dont do dumb shit midtrade.

#BearTipOfTheDay

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AllDayFaders Profile picture
26 Jan
1st figure out how delta hedging works. $GME was nothing new, it was just $TSLA on a smaller scale.

Any stock with

1) weekly options
2) high short%
3) low float

is candidate for a "gamma squeeze", since u now have 3x the buyers instead of 2x like in a regular shortsqueeze
in a regular shortsqueeze the 2 main buyers are the bent shorts & the breakout chasers (double the demand)

In a gamma squeeze, u have 3 main buyers: The shorts, the breakout chasers, AND the option sellers (who are delta hedging). So it's pretty much a shortsqueeze on cocaine
So as long as someone (or a group of ppl like robinhooders) is reckless enough to buy a ton of OTM calls, near friday, on a stock w/ those 3 criteria, u have the recipe for a squeeze. They'll probably attempt another squeeze soon, with a different stock that has those 3 criteria
Read 4 tweets
AllDayFaders Profile picture
21 Jan
Same answer as usual.. Data. Here are 5 steps to optimize your exits (stops & targets):

1) collect as much data as possible on ur specific niche

2) categorize each group of trades/stocks into specific setups

3) For each setup, find out the ideal (most consistent) entry signal
4) calculate what the average selloff % (bear) or squeeze % (bull) is from the entry signal. that'll give u an idea of where to look for targets

5) calculate how much the stock usually rips against the entry signal when the setup fails. that'll help u with stop loss placement
So in short, you NEED to know your setup's RANGE. How much does the stock move (on average) when the entry triggers? how much does it move against u when the entry backfires? If a stock usually moves $1.00 from the entry signal, then obviously dont have ur target $2.00 higher
Read 6 tweets
AllDayFaders Profile picture
21 Jan
Results of this poll reinforce what Ive been saying for years, & what the data from brokers & the research on daytraders and investors show:

Entries are literally the LEAST predictive of trading success. EXITS (proper targets when right & proper stops when wrong), are EVERYTHING
Nobody blows up b/c they had a bad entry.. a bad entry is a bad entry only in hindsight. U can get in at the perfect fucking price & the stock can still reverse & do fuckboy shit. So ppl dont blow up b/c of bad entries, they blow up bc of bad EXITS (not stopping out)
Also even if u have the best entry in the world, but you dont EXIT at the right time (too greedy), the stock can reverse & put u back in the red.

And if u have the BEST entry, but EXIT too early, u wont make enough to pay for future or past losses, or even fees.
Read 5 tweets
AllDayFaders Profile picture
6 Jan
Catchup on all my $TSLA tweets since Oct 2019. a ton of funds were balls deep short with insane size, with a breakeven price of around $305 (presplit). So i explained repeatedly that if we reclaimed $305 it would result in a MASSIVE demand imbalance due to..
delta hedging, short covering + fed pumping & retail chasing etc, that could catapult $TSLA to $1000 by june 2019 & eventually $1600 (presplit).

As of right now there is over $30 BILLION worth of demand from bagged shorts alone, ready to clog the bids at every dip.
Add to this the constant delta hedging and dumb ass retail who loves to chase overbought shit, plus the $SPY inclusion index buying plus fund managers who "chase performance" etc and it doesnt take a rocket scientist to figure out that there is way more demand than supply.
Read 4 tweets
AllDayFaders Profile picture
6 Jan
$TSLA thread update

it hit a high of $774 today. that's a split adjusted price of $3,870.
that's higher than $AMZN 's fat ass $3552 all time high. yes, $TSLA caught up with AMZN's stock price (not marketcap), & is ~$30 away from replacing $FB as the world's 5th largest company
As someone who uses fundamental analysis daily, does this make sense on a fundamental level?

FUCK NO !!

Which is why i constantly remind u fucks that fundamentals are just 1/3rd of the thesis (the other being TECHNICALS & sentiment).

SUPPLY/DEMAND imbalance is EVERYTHING !!
A stock can be as overvalued as a "made in Zimbabwe" iPhone or as undervalued as a fat chick's self-esteem, but as long as MORE people are aggressively buying than ppl are aggressively selling, the stock will go UP. period.

So trade on the side of the imbalance UNTIL it shifts.
Read 4 tweets
AllDayFaders Profile picture
1 Jan
Facts 📠

I cant stress how important this is. SYSTEMATIZE EVERYTHING!! You cannot master a skill unless you standardize every variable that surrounds it. Having the same, CONSISTENT entry/exit/stock selection rules helps u quickly spot what is wrong and what needs to change.
If u use a different criteria for every trade, and enter/exit randomly, how will u know what to change once shit hits the fan? was it the entries? the exits? the stock selection process? u wouldnt fucking know since u're all over the place and ur variables are constantly changing
When u "trade on the fly" with no real system, every day you'll have a different hindsight ass reason as to why the trade failed. But at least when ALL ur variables are CONSTANT, it is SO much easier to look back at ur stats and spot what went wrong and what needs to improve.
Read 6 tweets

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