1/ Futures down tonight. 2 things. 1) I don't like big gaps near the high. Odds favor it is recovered. 2) No break until the lower blue line breaks. As long as the gap down stays above this, watch for rally to fill gap.
2/ That said, this is the final segment in the wedge and there is likely a lot of overlap but no more than 3 clear waves. once gap fills, that may be it so a terminal end is upon us.
3/ Once the lower wedge breaks though, next should be the lower parallel line here. We are seeing downside moves appear swiftly and this may continue to hold true with little time to react. I suspect that lower lines proves to be another bounce point tho.
4/ But we're not done yet. After the channel bounce ~3725, I expect us to break to the next channel line. Near 3500. And yet another probably bounce point tho it may be the last before a 3rd wave segment takes hold.

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More from @PuffDragon11

26 Aug 20
1. Want to see what happens to irrational markets? In 1999-2000, the NDX went a little more than double over the span of 5 months. When it turned, 25% was lost in 7 trading days. After a strong bounce, it dropped again losing overall 35% in 3 weeks.
2. After another longer bounce and drop, the total was 40% down. It managed to recover ~62% of that in the months that followed.
3. BTFD crowd rejoiced that we are off again - not knowing that 2 years later the index would lose 85% of it's value.
Read 7 tweets
17 Jul 20
1/ Seriously. I post what I believe and I have extremely high confidence in what I see. I will emphasize - I AM NOT A DAYTRADER. I don't give a sh*t what the market has done in the last few weeks, whether I am early, blah, blah...
2/ Read my pinned post - I do not give advice and YOUR trade plan will probably not match mine.
3/ If you disagree fine. But if you're going to be a d*ck because the market went up and my LONG term prognosis is another depression, we're looking at 2 different times frames.
Read 5 tweets
21 Jun 20
1/ Chart study from Dragon's Den. This is the big picture. It has absolutely NOT changed at all and my guide for next 2-3 years. Image
2/ The 3 peaks pattern is the true market nesting pattern. In the last big picture chart, we see that 2000-2009 was a giant ABC corrective. Going one step bigger, 2000 - now is also a giant ABC but we have only just begun the C.
3/ In some ways, that will make the coming decline as well as the 2007-2009 decline similar in terms of pattern and character. It won't be 100% as the market has ways of making things a bit dynamic but the overall arch should be similar.
Read 10 tweets
21 Jun 20
1/ Virus thoughts. Chart below shows tracking of positive cases. Note there is a weekly up/down cycle likely due to less testing and work done on the weekend. There is a 1-2 day lag for results to filter through so looking at this, all dips are on weekend. Image
2/ Clearly, shutdowns had the anticipated affect of "flattening the curve". However, Memorial Day was a pivot when the public basically went YOLO and you started seeing mass gatherings, many people without masks
3/ Incubation is 4-14 days, but most are 10-14 down the road. Note that ~June 6 marked a low point, 12 days after Memorial Day. No doubt we are seeing the result of mass ignorance of the virus as cases tick up dramatically since then.
Read 15 tweets
10 Jun 20
Euphoria in stocks is very much like peak in dot com. This is much like 100 people playing musical chairs only when the music stops, 90 of them are going to get pulled, not just 1.
Uh oh.....what happened to the music?
If you did not trade the 2001 or 2007 top, you’re in for a real treat. And a lesson in how markets really work. The FED is POWERLESS.
Read 4 tweets
3 Jun 20
Converging to the end point. It's GTFO time. Image
Full moon June 5th.
Let's just make a little study out of it. Few more charts....this is current favored path right now, though if lower blue line does not hold, 2ndary is still major crash, just more immediate. Image
Read 5 tweets

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