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Christina Pagel Profile picture
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26 Jan, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Giving some examples on @BBCOne @BBCNews just now about why we we could have - and should have - avoided more than100,000 people dying from Covid.
Other missed opportunities: not making workplaces safer (e.g. DVLA, Sainsbury outbreak, high care worker deaths), not making schools safer, not anticipating uni surges in autumn, etc...
But I did say, and do believe, that the vaccination programme is going very well. So let's acknowledge that at least.
here is the short segment where I discussed the need for managed quarantine at the border to protect us from new variants coming in while we're vaccinating the population (and beyond).

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More from @chrischirp

Christina Pagel Profile picture
20 Jan
THREAD: we need start planning for the recovery of NHS staff right now.

NHS staff are working beyond their limits – have been for weeks and will continue to for weeks. They've been at the limit for a year. What will be the consequences? What can be done?

Please do read. 1/12
NHS workers are already at higher risk of mental health problems & suicide than general population. Studies pre- pandemic showed that UK nurses & docs were 2-5 times more likely to take their own lives than the general pop.
metro.co.uk/2018/09/03/sui…
independentnurse.co.uk/professional-a… 2/12
The British Medical Association did a survey after the 1st covid wave. 45% of ICU staff showed signs of mental ill-health, 40% with signs of PTSD, more than 2x recent combat veterans. 1 in 5 nurses & 1 in 7 docs had thoughts of self-harm or suicide.
bmj.com/content/372/bm… 3/12
Read 14 tweets
Christina Pagel Profile picture
17 Jan
THREAD: for anyone working with those or living with long term conditions whose care is being disrupted by Covid.

We asked parents of kids with Congenital Heart Disease (CHD) and adults living with CHD about their 1st wave experience...

Important lessons emerged! 1/6
Firstly, a lot depended on how well someone felt - people coping well with their CHD or those who were seen just before March lockdown were less worried. People with more complex disease were more likely to be worried and some had had no contact at all from specialists. 2/6
Many people spoke about getting different messages from different people - particularly about shielding and whether they shoud be at work / school.
People who had access to someone they could call for advice really valued it.
Some GP experiences were better than others... 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Christina Pagel Profile picture
16 Jan
THREAD: quick overview of where we are with Covid in the UK.

TLDR: some optimism but a long way to go. NHS will struggle for a bit yet :-( 1/11
First, cases have come down over last week which is good BUT they have climbed over this week.

Is this a blip? or is this is the impact of people going back to work after Xmas, more stuff open & more kids in school than March lockdown? This week should tell us more. 2/11
The proportion of people tested who have Covid is coming down in ALL nations - esp in NI and Wales. Good news!

BUT this misses data from later part of week which had higher case numbers & rates are still v high everywhere (we were at 1-2% over summer!) 3/11
Read 11 tweets
Christina Pagel Profile picture
16 Jan
THREAD: on the connection between age, infection, hospitalisation, death and vaccination...

TLDR: it matters! so read 7 tweets :-)

Each bar in the charts shows the proportion of people in each of the coloured age categories. 1/7
Confirmed cases are more likely to be working age adults & older teenagers. Young kids (esp pre-school) less likely to show symptoms (& get tested) & poss less likely to get infected. Over 65s less likely to be exposed.

Vaccinating >70s is *not* going to stop Covid cases. 2/7
But although relatively few people over 65 get infected, they are the majority of people in *hospital* with Covid - they're much more likely to get really sick.

Vaccinating >70s WILL relieve a lot of pressure on hospitals (by March).

We still need to drive cases down NOW. 3/7
Read 9 tweets
Christina Pagel Profile picture
11 Jan
THREAD: good news / bad news / good new on covid with data up to 5/6th Jan by date of test.

Thanks to Bob Hawkins who did the charts for me :-)
First, both Wales and N. Ireland now seeing sustained decreases in case positivity rates. Long may this continue.

Scotland is definitely flattenning and England looks like it is too. WIth any luck, both will start trending down over the next few days.
Looking at English regions, places that have been tier 4 equiv restrictions for longest (inc Christmas) are seeing little or no increase (SE, East, London). This is GOOD.

Bad news is that West Mids & NW saw big increase week after Christmas. Birmingham & Liverpool struggling.
Read 6 tweets
Christina Pagel Profile picture
8 Jan
LONG THREAD: Digging into UK Covid numbers & what they mean & what's in store...

TLDR: everything is bad and getting worse.

Except vaccines. They are a shining light - we just need to give a LOT more of them.

Read on (25 tweets!)...
CASES: Cases are climbing very fast - over 735K cases in last 2 weeks, compared to 413K the 2 weeks before that. These increases *will* mean more hospital admissions and more deaths over the coming weeks.

I'm afraid that is inevitable. Image
Drops in testing over Christmas & New Year, and longer times to get tests mean that most recent 5 or 6 days is a bit unreliable.

Cases & +vity show massive increases in England & NI & also steep from Scotland. Wales is mixed. Don't trust v recent plateau - could be lag. ImageImage
Read 26 tweets

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