#swfc Derby's latest win over QPR leaves Wednesday six points adrift of 21st and safety with two matches in hand.
How have teams in those circumstances done in the previous 22 seasons?
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How have teams in those circumstances done in the previous 22 seasons?
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First off we have to equalise Derby's points tally to our number of matches.
If we use points won per game for everyone, and how many points that would give them after the same number of matches as us, 23, this is how the table would look:
A gap of 4, not 6, points.
If we use points won per game for everyone, and how many points that would give them after the same number of matches as us, 23, this is how the table would look:
A gap of 4, not 6, points.
After 23 matches, how often have teams been trailing 21st by 4 or more points?
24 times in the last 22 seasons.
Of those 24 teams just 4, 1 in 6, survived.
In their final 23 matches those 4 survivors won 27, 33, 35 and 40 points respectively:
24 times in the last 22 seasons.
Of those 24 teams just 4, 1 in 6, survived.
In their final 23 matches those 4 survivors won 27, 33, 35 and 40 points respectively:
7 out of 10 teams in bottom 3 after 23 matches ended up relegated:
Half the teams who have finished 21st have done so with 48 to 50 points:
Wednesday, then, probably need another 30 points minimum in the final 23 games.
A point-winning rate of 30/23=1.3 points per game would equal 60 points and 13th over a full season.
Wednesday, then, do not need a miracle; we need, instead, muddied midtable form from here on in:
A point-winning rate of 30/23=1.3 points per game would equal 60 points and 13th over a full season.
Wednesday, then, do not need a miracle; we need, instead, muddied midtable form from here on in:
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