#swfc Derby's latest win over QPR leaves Wednesday six points adrift of 21st and safety with two matches in hand.

How have teams in those circumstances done in the previous 22 seasons?

[thread]
First off we have to equalise Derby's points tally to our number of matches.

If we use points won per game for everyone, and how many points that would give them after the same number of matches as us, 23, this is how the table would look:

A gap of 4, not 6, points.
After 23 matches, how often have teams been trailing 21st by 4 or more points?

24 times in the last 22 seasons.

Of those 24 teams just 4, 1 in 6, survived.

In their final 23 matches those 4 survivors won 27, 33, 35 and 40 points respectively:
7 out of 10 teams in bottom 3 after 23 matches ended up relegated:
Half the teams who have finished 21st have done so with 48 to 50 points:
Wednesday, then, probably need another 30 points minimum in the final 23 games.

A point-winning rate of 30/23=1.3 points per game would equal 60 points and 13th over a full season.

Wednesday, then, do not need a miracle; we need, instead, muddied midtable form from here on in:

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More from @ploehmann

27 Jan
#swfc are finally back in league action tonight 8pm GMT away to Coventry #pusb

A relegation six pointer to kick off our second half of the season with 7 points separating us in 23rd and them in 16th.

A look of our numbers and theirs below and what they can tell us.

[thread]
I looked at the survival prognosis for teams in our position yesterday ().

Thankfully a prognosis is not a prediction, but it does bear out just how important tonight's game is.
Can we quantify match importance then?

Well, @FiveThirtyEight have given it a right good go and how they've done it is explained here: fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/ho…

Their match importance rating ranges from 0 to 100 for a team.
Read 16 tweets
25 Jan
#swfc Sam Hutchinson's back!

Which first of all tempts me into re-posting this, rather cringingly :-D


Secondly, and more seriously, let's have a short look at his record in a numbers-related way.

[thread]
Hutchinson has 152 league appearances for Wednesday in 6½ years, averaging 23 league matches (50%) a year as well as 131 starts = 20 a year.

In that period he missed 13 matches through suspension, was sent off 5 times and yellow carded a staggering 51 times.
Read 7 tweets
29 Dec 20
#swfc I've done alright when researching things online in the past (it's also a not insignificant part of my job).

But just like in 2015, when Dejphon Chansiri bought our club, I am incapable of finding any evidence of his business experience as a CEO online.

(thread below)
Chansiri's older brother by 3 years, Thiraphong, runs the family business formed by his father.
Thiraphong's education (MBA from the US), business experience as a CEO and involvement in a great many businesses also outside the Thai Union Food Group, is easily retrievable online.
Read 13 tweets
3 Nov 20
Who wants a few US Presidential election charts? I can hardly hear you there at the back, but I'll take that as a yes!

The polls were off in 2016.

In the 12 states that are in play in the US in 2020, 5 ended up with Trump as winner despite the forecast pointing to Clinton:
In 2020 those same 12 states look a lot more likely to be going for the Democrats and Biden than they did in 2016 for Clinton:
Among the 39 states and districts not listed Biden has 216 electoral votes and needs another 54 to win.

Trump has 127 and needs another 143 to win.
Read 12 tweets
31 Oct 20
#swfc A big roll of the dice by Monk here!

Wildsmith, IMHO the best 'keeper at the club, given the chance to make no. 1 his.

Iorfa bringing much needed physicality and pace to a Börner and Palmer in the back three.

Windass at the tip of the three in midfield?
I really hope we use a similar ploy to when Luongo played a Libero role, as three centre backs can leave us too depleted further up the pitch against Wycombe's 4-2-3-1. The reason 3-5-2 went out of vogue in the early 2000s was precisely because teams turned to lone front men.
Three defenders in a line against one striker means space elsewhere for the attacking team.

So unless we tep it up, we'll be heavily outnumbered when we're on the ball, if Wycombe pad central areas like they did in their successful game against Watford: Image
Read 9 tweets
31 Oct 20
"What's the matter with Reading? (and xG)"

Some interesting discussion (if you're a footy data 🤓 like me at least!) Thursday on the use of Expected Goals (xG), which Reading's wild start to the season has brought a spotlight on.

A few thoughts from me below.

[thread]
The good people at @FiveThirtyEight supply their match level xG and non-shot xG data for a lot of leagues, and from 2016, on their site for free: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-api/clu…

That's the data I've used in the rest of the tweet thread.
A word of caution, of course, that xG and non-shot xG data aggregated at match level *can* be misleading:

In a probalistic sense, ie. "how likely is the win?", it's better to have one shot all game that is 0.5 xG, a 50% probability of a goal, than 20 shots that are 0.025 xG each
Read 13 tweets

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