Thread by @ploehmann

#swfc are finally back in league action tonight 8pm GMT away to Coventry #pusb

A relegation six pointer to kick off our second half of the season with 7 points separating us in 23rd and them in 16th.

A look of our numbers and theirs below and what they can tell us.

[thread]

I looked at the survival prognosis for teams in our position yesterday (

https://twitter.com/ploehmann/status/1354245748318220290?s=20

).

Thankfully a prognosis is not a prediction, but it does bear out just how important tonight's game is.

Can we quantify match importance then?

Well, @FiveThirtyEight have given it a right good go and how they've done it is explained here: fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/ho…

Their match importance rating ranges from 0 to 100 for a team.

In a game with a high match importance vs. a team with low match importance, a team's likelihood of winning increases: All else being equal, if match importance is 100 for the home team and 0 for the away team, the home team's odds of winning drop from Evens (50%) to 8/11 (58%).

If we look at the combined match importance ratings for both teams, tonight's game ranks 14th of the 317 matches with match importance ratings. Pretty important then!

Of our matches only the win against Bournemouth had a higher combined match importance than tonight's match:

Purely from the numbers Coventry seem to not use what little possession they have (47.8%, 17th) well having the division's second highest passes made per key pass.

It's no surprise to see Wycombe, Boro and Cardiff at the other end of that table! #hoof

Only Cardiff and Wycombe have created a larger share of their key passes from set pieces than Coventry.

Considering the ease with which Everton scored twice from a corner at the weekend, let's hope we're more adept at dealing with Coventry's dead ball deliveries tonight.

Although, it has to be said, Coventry haven't converted those dangerous set pieces all that well, but still better than our 4, the second lowest goals total from set pieces:

Coventry, at home, have spent the least time of play in the opposition's third of the pitch in the division, while the same is true for Wednesday away:

Performance-wise it's two of the division's worst teams.

Despite being about division average in keeping the opposition away from danger areas (non-shot xG against) Coventry's defence has been porous, allowing more quality chances (xG) than all but plucky Wycombe:

Wednesday have been more successful in denying the opposition shots and keeping those out, but that's coupled with the a lot of division worsts:

Goals for, xG for, non-shot xG for, non-shot xG difference, shots and on target for, xG per shot on target against and xG ratio.

If we zoom into the performance numbers of both teams in recent games, there have been some improvement on Wednesday's part to back up 10 points from 12 compared to Coventry's 4 stemming from an inability to turn possession in dangerous areas into good quality attempts on goal:

Data for the above:
whoscored.com
(@Whoscored)

FiveThirtyEight.com:
github.com/fivethirtyeigh…
(@FiveThirtyEight)

Football-data.co.uk:
football-data.co.uk/englandm.php
(@12Xpert)

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