⚠️ No Welsh data on 28 day deaths by date of death

🦠🦠🦠 25,308 new cases
⚰️⚰️⚰️ 1725 (28 day cut off) deaths

⚰️⚰️⚰️ 1,903 (within 60 days of a positive test and Covid on the death certificate

If we were in 117,253 COVID deaths yesterday, then we must surely be on c119k today
I shall do a complete update tomorrow when the Welsh data arrives but this new page on the Gov dashboard gives the ONS/ Stats Authority Covid certified deaths by date of death
(⚰️⚰️⚰️ 107,253 to 15/1/21)

Adding 9,346 from 16/1/21 - Mon 25/1/21 = 117,252 deaths total. Yesterday
Just adding the 28 day deaths by report date from today would suggest that the total is just shy of 119k deaths

⚰️💔⚰️💔 118,970 COVID deaths

It is hard to see how it cannot pass 120k by Friday when lagging reports are in.

Clearer picture tomorrow when Wales reports fully
🏥 Whilst Covid bed and ventilation bed occupation is still horribly high, the trend is a very gradual decline.

It must still be grim facing the Tsunami of patients and deaths every day, but if cases keep falling overall then the pressure from Covid will gradually lighten.
Vaccination 💉

7,164,387 people have received their first dose of vaccine. That’s terrific although a slight slowing in pace

Of those 474,156 have received two doses.

So, how are they all doing given that over a million had received at least 1 dose by 27/12/21?
I don’t know what the interruption at the AZ factory at Wrexham today (a suspicious package halted production) will do to production and therefore delivery in future days

But @john_actuary is plotting vaccinations against the 15 Feb target.⤵️⤵️⤵️
Handy healthcare graph for patients IN hospital from @LouisHenwood up to Monday 25th Jan
A welcome sea of green down arrows for cases in most places (but a few still red up arrows).

The pattern might change a bit tomorrow as more of Monday’s swabs are processed.

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More from @fascinatorfun

28 Jan
YESTERDAY- 27/1/21 we passed the grim milestone of 120K COVID Deaths

⚰️💔⚰️💔⚰️💔120,058 COVID DEATHS

SOURCE :Gov Covid dashboard

107,907 Deaths by date of death to 15/1/21 (ONS/ Stats Covid on death cert)
+
12,151 (16/1/21-27/1/21 by date of death (28 day)
=
120,058 ImageImageImageImage
That is 1 in every 566 U.K. citizens have died of Covid.

Remember the reporting lag. So deaths are still being added to 15/1/21. The close to today the more will be added.

⚰️⚰️1239 of those deaths were added today.

🦠🦠🦠28,680 cases (now processing more of Monday’s swabs) Image
🏥 admissions slowly coming down (over 3k in a day) but bother they and in hospital Covid 🛏 in patient numbers (nearly 37k) ares till very high indeed.

Overall ventilator 🛌 numbers (3937) slowly coming down, especially in England (3602)
Less clear for the other 3 nations. ImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
28 Jan
Covid vaccination sites out of reach for hundreds of thousands in England

FT analysis of data from mapping company TravelTime shows about 5.5m people in England live more than one hour’s travel on public transport from their nearest vaccination centre
ft.com/content/cf3d56…
Of those, 336,000 are estimated not to have access to a car. A total of 1.3m of that group are aged 65 and above, of whom 166,000 are unable to use a car.

Quite a compelling reason for GP surgeries, more accessible and more familiar, to be engaged in the process fully Image
“Rebecca Fisher, a fellow at the Health Foundation think-tank who practises as a GP in a deprived urban area, said her practice had very few patients over 80 “because poor people don’t live as long”

That really hits home. Image
Read 4 tweets
26 Jan
🦠🦠 20,089 cases. (Lockdown working in most places)
⚰️⚰️⚰️. 1631 (28 day cut off deaths) - 1756 (60 day deaths - +ve test and Covid on death certificate.

⚰️💔⚰️🦠⚰️💔 Total CERTAIN Covid deaths 112,951. A marked undercount

Calculations tweet 2.
Based on 112,951 Covid deaths

😱💔⚰️ 1 in every 602 U.K. citizens have already died of COVID. (More like 1 in ever 590)

That is shocking and shameful and inexcusable. Carnage.

Grief and anger and fear.

But I see no shame or humility from those at the top.
The downward trend in cases the last three weeks is now being seen not only in in admissions but MAY now be moving into a tiny reduction in ventilation beds. Fingers crossed.

🦠Cases. I like to compare Mondays by swab date (due to processing lag).

The reduction is marked.
Read 9 tweets
26 Jan
On 6 Jan the National Guard Commander had had their normal powers removed from them by the Pentagon.

The latter says this was as a result of the June 2020 interventions. But the intelligence was already in on the 6 Jan insurrection

So why not restored?
That seems pretty deliberate to me, especially when you see the timescales involved...and the fact the National Guard were “just down the street” 2 miles away.

Surely Trump was briefed in some shape or form.

What orders came from him?
Read 8 tweets
26 Jan
From Navy SEAL to Part of the Angry Mob Outside the Capitol - The New York Times

In the Navy, he was trained as an expert in sorting information from disinformation, a clandestine commando who spent years working in intelligence paired with the C.I.A.
nytimes.com/2021/01/26/us/…
2/. He once mocked the idea of shadowy antidemocratic plots as “tinfoil hat” thinking.

How does he go from that to believing that the election was stolen...and in DONALD TRUMP, liar in chief?

It seems extraordinary

@RichardBentall
He was even on the receiving end of an Alex Jones conspiracy driven type attack himself..

Makes you wonder.
Read 4 tweets
26 Jan
Risk of severe COVID established early in infection

Cambridge Uni researchers found that early in the infection, the immune systems of people with severe COVID produced higher levels of inflammatory cytokines, such as TNF-alpha v people with mild disease
theconversation.com/risk-of-severe…
“The people with severe disease also had fewer immune cells that are known to specifically target the virus, such as T cells and B cells.”
“In other words, early in infection, the people with severe disease had lower numbers of immune cells that could target the virus & higher levels of inflammation.”

Would an early blood test to identify those at risk be practical?

Target with anti inflammatories?
Read 5 tweets

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