⚠️ No Welsh data on 28 day deaths by date of death
🦠🦠🦠 25,308 new cases
⚰️⚰️⚰️ 1725 (28 day cut off) deaths
⚰️⚰️⚰️ 1,903 (within 60 days of a positive test and Covid on the death certificate
If we were in 117,253 COVID deaths yesterday, then we must surely be on c119k today
I shall do a complete update tomorrow when the Welsh data arrives but this new page on the Gov dashboard gives the ONS/ Stats Authority Covid certified deaths by date of death
(⚰️⚰️⚰️ 107,253 to 15/1/21)
Just adding the 28 day deaths by report date from today would suggest that the total is just shy of 119k deaths
⚰️💔⚰️💔 118,970 COVID deaths
It is hard to see how it cannot pass 120k by Friday when lagging reports are in.
Clearer picture tomorrow when Wales reports fully
🏥 Whilst Covid bed and ventilation bed occupation is still horribly high, the trend is a very gradual decline.
It must still be grim facing the Tsunami of patients and deaths every day, but if cases keep falling overall then the pressure from Covid will gradually lighten.
Vaccination 💉
7,164,387 people have received their first dose of vaccine. That’s terrific although a slight slowing in pace
Of those 474,156 have received two doses.
So, how are they all doing given that over a million had received at least 1 dose by 27/12/21?
I don’t know what the interruption at the AZ factory at Wrexham today (a suspicious package halted production) will do to production and therefore delivery in future days
But @john_actuary is plotting vaccinations against the 15 Feb target.⤵️⤵️⤵️
Covid vaccination sites out of reach for hundreds of thousands in England
FT analysis of data from mapping company TravelTime shows about 5.5m people in England live more than one hour’s travel on public transport from their nearest vaccination centre ft.com/content/cf3d56…
Of those, 336,000 are estimated not to have access to a car. A total of 1.3m of that group are aged 65 and above, of whom 166,000 are unable to use a car.
Quite a compelling reason for GP surgeries, more accessible and more familiar, to be engaged in the process fully
“Rebecca Fisher, a fellow at the Health Foundation think-tank who practises as a GP in a deprived urban area, said her practice had very few patients over 80 “because poor people don’t live as long”
🦠🦠 20,089 cases. (Lockdown working in most places)
⚰️⚰️⚰️. 1631 (28 day cut off deaths) - 1756 (60 day deaths - +ve test and Covid on death certificate.
⚰️💔⚰️🦠⚰️💔 Total CERTAIN Covid deaths 112,951. A marked undercount
Calculations tweet 2.
Based on 112,951 Covid deaths
😱💔⚰️ 1 in every 602 U.K. citizens have already died of COVID. (More like 1 in ever 590)
That is shocking and shameful and inexcusable. Carnage.
Grief and anger and fear.
But I see no shame or humility from those at the top.
The downward trend in cases the last three weeks is now being seen not only in in admissions but MAY now be moving into a tiny reduction in ventilation beds. Fingers crossed.
🦠Cases. I like to compare Mondays by swab date (due to processing lag).
On 6 Jan the National Guard Commander had had their normal powers removed from them by the Pentagon.
The latter says this was as a result of the June 2020 interventions. But the intelligence was already in on the 6 Jan insurrection
So why not restored?
That seems pretty deliberate to me, especially when you see the timescales involved...and the fact the National Guard were “just down the street” 2 miles away.
From Navy SEAL to Part of the Angry Mob Outside the Capitol - The New York Times
In the Navy, he was trained as an expert in sorting information from disinformation, a clandestine commando who spent years working in intelligence paired with the C.I.A. nytimes.com/2021/01/26/us/…
2/. He once mocked the idea of shadowy antidemocratic plots as “tinfoil hat” thinking.
How does he go from that to believing that the election was stolen...and in DONALD TRUMP, liar in chief?
Risk of severe COVID established early in infection
Cambridge Uni researchers found that early in the infection, the immune systems of people with severe COVID produced higher levels of inflammatory cytokines, such as TNF-alpha v people with mild disease theconversation.com/risk-of-severe…
“The people with severe disease also had fewer immune cells that are known to specifically target the virus, such as T cells and B cells.”
“In other words, early in infection, the people with severe disease had lower numbers of immune cells that could target the virus & higher levels of inflammation.”
Would an early blood test to identify those at risk be practical?