There is an interesting divide among whites by education about the Trumpian theory that Biden didn't win the election (Page 31) .
docs.cdn.yougov.com/ld46rgtdlz/eco…
67% of white men with college degrees believe Biden legitimately won (33% don't).

48% of white men without college degrees believe Biden legitimately won (52% don't).
76% of white women with college degrees believe Biden legitimately won (24% don't).

52% of white women without college degrees believe Biden legitimately won (48% don't).
Among black voters (sorry - they don't break us out by education), 89% believe Biden legitimately won. Among latinos, 77% believe he won legitimately.

Also, younger people and people with higher incomes are more sure that Biden won the election legitimately.
(Page 45)
Favorability of QAnon among different groups (% who answered "very favorable" or "somewhat favorable"):

White Men w/no college: 24%
Republicans: 23%
Trump voters: 22%
Men: 17%
Independents: 13%
White Men w/college: 12%
Women: 8%
Democrats: 6%
Biden voters: 4%

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More from @TheValuesVoter

28 Jan
If you listen to the pundits, you’d think that the @HouseGOP did very well during the 2020 elections.

That’s not quite true.

Here’s what actually happened.
The only state in the country where the GOP had a net gain in House seats since Trump took office in 2017 is Minnesota. The party gained one seat there in 2020.
In the following states, the GOP gained seats in 2020 - but - only gained the same number of seats that it lost in 2018:

Florida
(Lost 2 seats in 2018, gained 2 seats in 2020)

Iowa
(Lost 2 seats in 2018, gained 2 seats in 2020)
Read 9 tweets
28 Jan
Economist Poll - Favorability of the GOP
(% saying they have a "very" or "somewhat" favorable view)

docs.cdn.yougov.com/ld46rgtdlz/eco…
(Page 180)

White Men w/no degree - 42%
White Women w/no degree - 42%
White Men w/degree - 35%
Men - 33%
Women - 31%
White Women w/degree - 26%
Favorability of the GOP (Continued)

Hispanic - 24%
Black - 19%
This is what the GOP approval numbers were on the 11/2/2020 poll - right before Election Day.
docs.cdn.yougov.com/jsojry0vph/eco…
(Page 194)

White Men w/no degree - was 54% (now 42%)
White Women w/no degree - was 53% (now 42%)
White Men w/degree - was 43% (now 35%)
Men - was 45% (now 33%)
Read 5 tweets
27 Jan
A lot of people have been talking recently about the crazy talk that has come from several state GOP organizations.

What people haven’t noticed is how badly the craziest of the crazies have done in recent years. Let’s review.
The Oregon GOP made headlines yesterday for saying something pretty psychotic.

Maybe all the losing made them crazy?

Oregon has 7 members in Congress. Only one of them is a Republican.

In Oregon, the GOP is in the minority in both the State House and the State Senate.
And as bad as that is, they actually lost ground during the Trump years. The Oregon GOP lost the Secretary of State office. And lost 1 State Senate seat and 2 State House seats during the Trump years.
Read 7 tweets
27 Jan
Senate Republicans might be thinking that the politically safe move would be to try to figure out a way - any possible way - to avoid convicting Trump.

I think they’re overlooking some things.
@SenateGOP
Unlike the first impeachment trial, in this trial, the evidence of Trump’s guilt isn’t going to somehow be too intellectually challenging for the average person to grasp (not that the last one should have been either. But, anyway ...)

And there could be witnesses.
The people who were involved in the assault on the Capitol keep getting scooped up left and right by the feds. More stories are going to get published showing how this whole thing came together. This will likely look worse, not better, as time goes on.
Read 6 tweets
26 Jan
In 2022, the GOP will be defending 20 US Senate seats.

And 17 of them are in states in which Trump did worse in the 2020 Presidential election than he did there in 2016.
Also, in 3 of these states (Kansas, North Carolina and Pennsylvania), the GOP had a net loss of US House seats during the Trump era.

In 10 of these states (AK, FL, ID, IN, KS, MO, NC, OK, PA and UT), the GOP had a net loss of State Senate seats since Trump came to office.
In another 10 of the states where the GOP will be defending US Senate seats in 2022, the party had a net loss of State House seats since 2017. These are AK, FL, ID, MO, NC, ND, OH, PA, UT and WI.
Read 6 tweets
25 Jan
Every time I hear somebody like @RandPaul continue to dishonestly cast doubt about the election results, I get motivated to put out data to set the record straight.

And so I did some more study.
I made a list of every state in the country with indicators of whether the following things happened since Trump took office:

1) Did 2020 exit polls show Trump did worse with Democrats than in 2016?
2) Did 2020 exit polls show Trump did worse with Independents than in 2016?
3) Did Trump do worse in the state with Republicans than he did in 2016?
4) Did Trump do worse in the state with white voters than he did in 2016?
5) Did Trump do worse in the state with black voters than he did in 2016?
Read 16 tweets

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