X : Elon Musk and Tesla are about batteries not cars.
Me : Not quite. Think of it more as a "Getting to Mars which needs batteries which needs cars" company ... then Tesla, SpaceX, The Boring Company all make sense.
Me : Not quite. Think of it more as a "Getting to Mars which needs batteries which needs cars" company ... then Tesla, SpaceX, The Boring Company all make sense.
If you simply start with Elon Musk as the user with a need to build a civilisation on Mars and then map down ... all of these companies make sense as you'll quickly find the components you need to industrialise. Have that long term focus on intent (i.e. get to Mars) is important.
This will happen a lot quicker than if it was simply driven by the market where the intent is more short term focus. That's one of the things people miss when they say "look at Space, private companies do better than Gov" ... you need to look at the focus on intent.
Gov, the intent is often "never to fail" hence it tends towards extreme risk aversion even with Space but as components change then its practice develop - see Defence, Will Roper and "eSeries" ... Elon's focus is on Mars ... the market is just focused on short term profit ...
... so when it comes to building a civilisation on Mars then Elon will get there faster, Gov would have got there eventually and Wall St would probably never make it but are you interested in buying a T-Shirt or some future options on Mars houses?
X : So, you think Elon will be first?
Me : Oh ... ah, probably not. He is keeping us in the game which is great, ditto Amazon in other fields but China has the benefits of markets as a tool, Gov power and intent. I suspect China will have the first civilisation on Mars.
Me : Oh ... ah, probably not. He is keeping us in the game which is great, ditto Amazon in other fields but China has the benefits of markets as a tool, Gov power and intent. I suspect China will have the first civilisation on Mars.
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