AstraZeneca was signed as Oxford’s partner on 30 April and signed a deal to supply 100m doses to the UK a fortnight later. Ministers were prepared to pay a few hundred million upfront, allowing the company to build its first virus manufacturing process.

theguardian.com/society/2021/j…
The deal was - from the UK government - a demand its citizens be vaccinated first.

“That underpinned all of it,” an industry insider said.

Two sites (Oxford and Keele) were set up to start “brewing” the vaccine. There were early issues but were overcome in 3 months
Bottling takes place in Wrexham....where the suspicious package was.

All credit to getting the manufacturing investment in place early enough to overcome inevitable early teething troubles and produce plenty of vaccine.
A weakness on the EU side is that their proportionate “risk”investment -€1.78 bn (ie with the possibility of no return) seems to be a lot lower that the U.K. (€1.9bn) or the USA (€9bn).
Is the EU’s “risk investment” enough to satisfy their “beat reasonable endeavours” in the contract?

In other words that requirement applies to both AZ and the EU.
Argh! Tweet one!

. “Vaccine manufacturing process” not “virus” manufacturing process.

Thanks @andrew_croxford for the nudge.

As if there aren’t enough conspiracy theories out there without me adding to them.

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More from @fascinatorfun

30 Jan
In graphics: the UK vaccine supply chain | Financial Times

Handy whistle stop tour of the U.K. VACCINE 💉 portfolio and where they are to be manufactured once approved (&, in some instances, the site built)
ft.com/content/8b48a8…
According to the NAO £11.7bn has been set aside for the development, manufacturing and purchasing of the vaccines.

4 types of vaccines in the portfolio.

Of those 5 vaccines seem to have performed well in clinical trials.

Of those alone we have reserved 247 million doses. Image
There should be a lot of “home manufacturing” taking place save for the Pfizer (and maybe the Moderna) vaccines.

That should help secure part of the supply chain.

It should also facilitate manufacture of the vaccine for export purposes.

That shows some creditable foresight ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
30 Jan
🦠🦠🦠23,275 new cases. Comparing Mondays by swab date, a decided reduction 👍. Still too high.

⚰️⚰️⚰️1200 (28 day deaths)

⚰️💔⚰️💔⚰️💔 122,118 COVID deaths 😱😱😱

(107,907 ONS/Stats Covid certified deaths to 15/1/21

+
14,211 (28 day deaths)

Both by date of death. ImageImageImageImage
⚰️ In this wave we’ve had 17 consec days with over 1k deaths, 6 over 1.2k deaths & 1 over 1.3k deaths (19/01).
Deaths are still being added to most of these days.

In April there were 23 consecutive days with over 1k death
Peak being 8/4/21 = 1457 deaths

Deaths by date of death
🦠. TESTS. 23,275. See screenshot on the right to compare Mondays (by swab date).

Most of 25/1/21 should have been processed by now so it does look like a real downward trend .

Positivity in England only down to 11.9%. Still v high ImageImageImage
Read 13 tweets
29 Jan
I shall wait to summarise today’s data due to a hiccup on the Covid dashboard re death data.

🦠🦠🦠29,079 new cases

First time admissions have been under 3k since New Year’s Eve
VACCINATION 💉 looks as if an improvement after a slower couple of days

Total of 8,369,438 doses administered to 7,891,184 people.

478,254 of those people have had second doses.

That really is very good performance.

Gratitude to the Vaccination logistics and deployment teams
🏥 2903 admissions
🛌 35375 IN Patients
VENTILATOR 🛏 3918
3585 in England is a clear continual drop over a full week

Still pretty horrendous numbers but undoubtedly a slowing of ingress.

Lockdown IS working albeit we hoped it might just a bit faster.
Read 7 tweets
29 Jan
Can you help @andrew_croxford

I think the paper concerned suggests the subject picked up Covid twice, once in May and once in October. Two different variants with the first incident producing insufficient immune response to prevent the second variant.
The relevant paper according to @pash22 is this one

I don’t think it suggests she carried two variants at once

preprints.org/manuscript/202…
Sorry.

The author of the Reuters article says this is the relevant paper

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Read 4 tweets
29 Jan
In the unlikely event you haven’t seen this @davidallengreen @syrpis

AZ contract with the EU

Not identical to CureVac.

I wonder why price redacted given AZ agreemen with Oxford Uni to sell at cost

ec.europa.eu/info/sites/inf…
“AZ shall NOT be deemed in breach of this Agreement as a result of any such delay due to the aforementioned competing agreement(s)".

Seems to refer to “competing agreement entered into by or on behalf of the Commission” (ie not U.K - AZ contract).
U.K. manufacturing site specifically included in the contract, for the purposes of A5.4 only, as an EU site.
Read 5 tweets
28 Jan
GOOD to see high efficacy (89% in the U.K. 15k arm) against the U.K. variant.

Less good that it suggests 50% efficacy v SA variant (smaller cohort with 4.4K volunteers) but that is still a lot better than none.
“The researchers also carried out a post-hoc analysis looking at efficacy for particular strains

they estimated an efficacy of 95.6% against the original COVID-19 strain and 85.6% against the UK variant strain B.1.1.7”
Read 5 tweets

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