Okay, so I think, while, I'm looking over the warning and watches, I just want to touch on my forecasting philosophy, specifically when models do their typical waffling as we get closer to the event.
I personally, do not change a forecast because of one model or another, even the ECMWF, unless there is a fundamental change in the overall 500 MB environment. I think this practice leads to more confusion and hurts sending out the message.
I am sure no matter your location, that you can find a model solution that is to the liking of your back yard, depending on the result you want.
Look, creating a forecast is more than Model A says this, and Model B says that. A true forecast creates a theory on atmospheric dynamics based on model data, experience, and observations (like the cold, dry arctic air in place).
So at this point, I frankly like where I am with this forecast and will not be changing much of it unless something fundamentally changes. Oh yeah, and the mixing of sleet and rain was built-in well before the models started going warm (too warm IMO). So no worries.
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