1. Though part of what I'm calling "The GA Model" (in several parts, also the @staceyabrams' model- esp the part I'm about to highlight) is to micro-invest the up to now completely ignore rural black vote as a means of depressing the GOP vote margin in rural areas w black pops
2. Its a shrewd, strategically brilliant strategy, a game of subtraction via addition (but not evil, bc it subtracts POWER not the ability to participate in democracy w is the GOP's modus operandi. White rural voters still get to vote. Hell, the reforms @FairFight & others
3. fight for help all voters access the ballot box easier, and socio-economic barriers cross all races. The crap the GOP does to target minority voters & young voters hurts their own base & a great irony will be as their party becomes more heavily reliant on non-college ed voters
4. all of this suppression stuff is likely to bite them in the ass- esp in low participation races. These types of races are disproportionately made up of college ed voters (see VA 2019). Would love to see/hear about how the performance turned out for the analysis @JMilesColeman
5. did for NC but for GA rural places, with specific attention on those where Fair Fight invested on turnout. I'm sure her org will disclose that at some point. But yeah, I like the strategy of mitigating the strength of your opponent in their strongholds IF there is a viable
6 option to do so. This what the Trump campaign tried, micro-targeting minority youngish men online. Verdict to out on how effective it was as far as I know but polling prior to the election suggested it was. Lots of great ways to flip this around, which @StrikePac will do!
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@Daniel83106448 I know, right. All this time I've been thinking that no matter what, by fall 2021 life starts to back to normal. Commerce really starts to bounce back bc people like you & me who are not cavalier about dying start to engage in the public economy again (restaurants, movies, etc)
@Daniel83106448 But instead, we might literally go back right to the beginning! Surely, the experts/Biden team is realizing this.
Assuming we can't mass produce vaccines anywhere sadly, the ONLY option is to enact, right now, a global shut down like we did at the very beginning, but one like
@Daniel83106448 China did. An actual draconian one that totally kills off the spread of the virus so we have time to produce the vaccine & prevent the mutations. And there is literally NO WAY that would ever happen. MB in Canada & the EU- but here? Brazil? Just no way! For the 1st time, I'm
1. Been thinking about something. Seems to me its unlikely we'll have enough vaccine to hit herd immunity rates in time to head of a mutation that will require vaccine mods & then an entire vaccination effort redo. Or least, this is looking less & less likely. A HUGE problem!
2. If we had the supply, we could herd by summer & reopen. But, we need GLOBAL immunity or it'll mutate somewhere & our immunity will fail unless the entire rest of the world is willing to enact pre-emptive draconian travel restrictions against poor countries that cant vaccinate
3. before the mutations hit-a PR nightmare for the West. People seem to be saying that a Pfizer vaccine can only be produced at a Pfizer plan (@VinGuptaMD- does that sound right?!) bc if not, couldn't we use the DPA to produce the vaccines everywhere set up w the right labs?
Yes! I didn't get to talk about this much over the cycle. Too much daily triage stuff coming every 5 secs w President Shit Show. But I have to say, @JoeBiden as a general election candidate did DAMN FINE JOB. He leaned INTO being a Dem. He no doubt received really shitty
2. advice from the campaign world "status quo" (a mentality- not people!) I'm building @StrikePac (which, BTW isn't meant to be merely an ad cutting firm, its meant to build an org that will help redesign how Ds do their electioneering STRATEGY, including how it approaches
3. the entire concept of a competitive race. The traditional Dem model involves identifying voters who vote regularly and are "persuadable" and building your campaign around reaching, persuading, and ultimately bringing to the polls as many of these people as possible. Why I am
2. that controls D electioneering strategy now refused to allow this. Which again, is why I'm building @StrikePac
bc that should NEVER HAVE HAPPENED.
Most frustrating part?! The counter message is OBVIOUS. You hit back the GOP w the fact that they were actively & literally
3. defunding the police EVERY SINGLE DAY of the fall cycle by holding the state & local funding hostage in the HEROES ACT- a piece of legislation Ds might have wanted to make the cornerstone of their argument for why voters should flip control of the Senate to them instead of the
I want to let you know when I made the decision to launch @StrikePac & directly get into electioneering I realized I wasn't going to continue issuing "race ratings" & "forecasts" each cycle- OBV that's a conflict of interest!
The hostility & sexism of
2. that world, I have to be honest, makes it very easy to walk away- the misogyny in the top tier of the election analysis community outside of @Center4Politics folks who are awesome & also more accurate than anyone else is intolerable. I'll still analyze politics, political
3. events, issue commentary, write articles, run the pod, go on TV, and generally succeed in ways that drive those men nuts but no, I won't be putting out ratings or "forecasts" anymore. Now, lots of people are asking me "what's going to happen in 2022?" The Midterm Effect, the
2. disaffected conservative whites in the South, who were fleeing the Democratic Party in droves over civil rights- ending the New Deal Coalition which had allowed Ds to domination Congress for 40 years, the GOP understood they could fast-track political power. The trade off was
3. adapting Atwater's "Southern Strategy" & opening their arms to "quiet" racism. Southern whites knew they could no longer be overtly racist, but were appeased by Rep pols who, via dog whistle politics indicated or signaled to them that their "dominance" would be maintained.