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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

1 Feb

@realmoney

Coming up on @realmoney
A Silver Lining
* I am bullish on the price of silver and gold (and I have large holdings in both)
* This morning silver is +$2.80/0z (or +10.4%) to $29.73oz!
* In my "15 Surprises for 2021" I predicted that silver would outshine both gold and bitcoin

- rising to over $50/0z

"Surprise #7 A Decline in the U.S. Dollar Spurs an Advance In Gold (to $3,000/oz) and a Ramp of +50% in Bitcoin (to $40,000) - But Silver Is The Big Winner As It Doubles to Over $50/oz - Over easy policy, excessive liquidity, higher inflation and a rapid

rollout in the Covid-19 vaccine powers the prices of cryptocurrencies and precious metals higher. Silver, however, is the league leader as the rapidly rising demand for silver in industrial applications creates a supply crunch late in the year. Another challenge on the supply

Read 5 tweets

Dougie Kass

@DougKass

31 Jan

@realmoney

Coming up on @realmoney tomorrow

The Bitter Irony Is That A Stock Named GameStop May Stop The Game

* Too many traders speculating today are throwing "Hail Marys" in their parents' basement - thinking that they will become the next Tom Brady.
* Bubbles rarely resolve themselves

@jimcramer

without inflicting alot of financial damage -this will likely be no different than the collapse in the last 3 speculative cycles.
* 'We have met the enemy and he is us.'
* I remain very negative on the market outlook and I am now in a short and hold phase. @jimcramer @tomkeene

@carlquintanilla

@carlquintanilla @riskreversal @SullyCNBC @bobpisani @andrewrsorkin @beckyquick @saraeisen @herbgreenberg @convertbond @riskreversal @scottwapner @ferrotv

Read 5 tweets

Dougie Kass

@DougKass

29 Jan

@realmoney

@realmoney @SquawkCNBC @andrewrsorkin @tomkeene @jimcramer @SaraEisen

Jan 28, 2021 | 06:08 PM EST DOUG KASS
Here's a Ludicrous Idea
My Ludacris -- ludicrous -- forecast is that either Citadel or JPMorgan (JPM) takes over Robinhood and pays off their (GME) trading losses.

Jan 28, 2021 | 05:29 PM EST DOUG KASS
My Two Bits: Will This Be the Arrow That Kills Robinhood?
While I promised not to discuss ideology with regard to Reddit, Robinhood and the retail investors' trading platforms ... I highly suspect that the bulk of (GME) buying was large funds

, watching the private boards and then piling on.
Robinhood is toast, in my view. Dead.
Stopping clients overnight from buying and only allowing them to close positions? Those that just bought a few hours or days before? Guaranteed losses. Cue a lot of lawyers. I'll take the

Read 4 tweets

Dougie Kass

@DougKass

27 Jan

@realmoney

@realmoney
Jan 27, 2021 | 10:40 AM EST DOUG KASS
The Fundamental Difference Between Being Short GameStop and Tesla
* Many are becoming hyperbolic and are ignoring the facts

I am seeing some comparisons made between (GME) and (TSLA) on the chat sites, on Twitter and e

lsewhere.

Some suggest that if GME can go to $380 why can't TSLA go to $2000?

Of course anything is possible - but I prefer dealing with facts and stats, especially as it relates to short interest which seems to be the primary reason why GME has rocketed into the

stratosphere.

The short position in GME is about 70 million shares, or 140% of the share float of 47 million shares.

By contrast, the short position in TSLA is only about 60 million shares compared to the float of 760 million shares, or only 8% of TSLA's float.

Read 4 tweets

Dougie Kass

@DougKass

27 Jan

Speculative, heavily shorted gewgaws zoomed higher -- perhaps taking the oxygen from traditional high octane/growth equities.

Meanwhile, some of my fundamental shorts like ($PTON) (-$9.35) and ($CVNA) (-$11.44) cratered today. I have been adding consistently to

these over the last few weeks Disney (DIS) fell by -$2.33. M inexplicably rose by nearly +$2. Homebuilders were mixed.

One of my core and basic shorting tenets is never to short a stock in which short interest exceeds five to six days of average trading volume

(over the last month) and to avoid shorts in which company short interest exceeds 5% to 6% of the company's float.

The short squeezes in ($GME) and the other shiny objects of speculation over the last month are testimony to this strategy of risk control and provides validity

Read 8 tweets

Dougie Kass

@DougKass

22 Jan

@realmoney

@realmoney
Jan 21, 2021 | 04:07 PM EST DOUG KASS
What, Me Worry?
* A generation which ignores history has no past and no future

Like Wednesday, today was another day of divergences -- in which the averages scooted ahead nicely without the soldiers participating.

Specifically

, in today's trading session, though the S&P index rose by 10 and the Nasdaq by 110 handles, market breadth was 13-18 negative.

The "generals" - Facebook (FB) , Amazon (AMZN) , Alphabet (GOOGL) , Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) -- continued to upstage the rest of the market.

My "Uncle" Bob Farrell would not be happy with this divergence:

Rule #7: Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names.

Translation: Breadth is important. A rally on narrow breadth indicates limited participation and

Read 6 tweets

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