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Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺

@fascinatorfun

2 Feb

🦠 16,840 cases continuing the downward trend (but remember how quickly that exploded from a lower number at the end of the December lock down)

⚰️⚰️⚰️. 1449 (28 day deaths)

⚰️💔 117,378 ONS Stats authority deaths to 22/1/21

⚰️💔⚰️💔 125,223 COVID DEATHS total - an undercount.

Why am I also sure there is an undercount?

Firstly there is a settled pattern in delayed notifications evident from checking deaths by date of death over a period of time. They tick up over a period of two - three weeks.

Secondly if you check the death numbers for 28 day deaths by date of death (eg circled in green) there were 1150 deaths on 22/1/21. The Stats authorities had only been notified of 760 of them

By next week they will have caught up

Thirdly the 28 day death data stops at 31/1/21

Read 6 tweets

Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺

@fascinatorfun

2 Feb

Why I became sceptical of the lockdown sceptics | by Dr Michael Fitzpatrick | Jan, 2021 | Medium

An interesting reflection.
mike-93476.medium.com/why-i-became-s…

Instead of engaging with the reality of Covid-19 and the societies which it is ravaging “they have simply used a familiar critique of the politicisation of health and the growth of a culture of fear as a script for explaining the reception of a new virus in new times. “

Neither medical science nor social analysis is sacred
But taking the measure of bureaucratic impositions like lockdowns requires something more too: it requires a moral compass. Government ministers abdicate responsibility for their policies by claiming they ‘follow’ the science

Read 15 tweets

Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺

@fascinatorfun

2 Feb

@liammannix

Read this lucid wonderfully readable article by ⁦@liammannix⁩
🇬🇧 UK variant (B.1.1.7)
🇺🇸 South African variant (B.1.351)
🇧🇷 Brazilian variant (P.1)

* Difference between: Mutants, Variants, Strains
* Spike Protein mutations
* Vaccines efficacy smh.com.au/national/what-…

Best article I’ve seen yet

See those orange dots?
That’s the Kent B1.1.7 variant taking over

Seeing the timetable of events (esp late Nov alarm growing at the prevalence of the spike drop out samples tested and that, on 13th Dec we had 21,991 cases ) promoted another look.

Worth bearing in mind now that At the end of the Nov lockdown on 3rd Dec, moving into tiers we had 15,654 cases (by specimen date).

A couple of days at 12/13k & up it went to 21k

33k by 15th December but Johnson doesn’t want to cancel Christmas.

47k by 21st Dec
81k by 28th Dec

Read 10 tweets

Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺

@fascinatorfun

1 Feb

52 Days China and the Pandemic 26/12/19
A technician in a private lab in China sequenced a sample from a patient & said it was a bat-SARS like virus.

Wuhan Gov & China CDC were told
They must have known

Meanwhile hospitals in Wuhan were admitting patients with severe pneumonia

Another private lab sequenced another sample and mistakenly said it WAS SARS.

Despite efforts to keep it quiet this information went viral.

Taiwan Social media was alive with rumours before the end of December 2019

By 31 Dec a newsletter went out to 80 million people worldwide

However other scientific intelligence suggested it was associated to SARS but with differences.

The Head of the Chinese CDC, Gao, told and American colleague that it was a new coronavirus but not easily transmissible.

But information was out and he wasn’t believed

Read 8 tweets

Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺

@fascinatorfun

31 Jan

Quick summary today due to the limitation of Sunday/Monday reporting lag. Usual ⚠️ and catch up Tues/ Wed/Thurs,

🦠🦠21,088 new cases
⚰️⚰️587 (28 day cut off deaths)

🏥 ADMISSIONS just over 3k

🛌 IN patients now under 35k so downward direction continues albeit still very high.

I remember being horrified at 3k admissions in a day in Wave 1.

VENTILATOR 🛌, 3832, with the most marked decrease in England with 3486

VACCINATIONS 💉

Stupendous effort with 9,468,382 doses administered to
8,977,329 people, 491,053 of them having received two doses.

That is 609,010 doses in a single day

Chapeau all involved.

Now we need data on efficacy on the early one and two dose people.

Read 6 tweets

Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺

@fascinatorfun

30 Jan

In graphics: the UK vaccine supply chain | Financial Times

Handy whistle stop tour of the U.K. VACCINE 💉 portfolio and where they are to be manufactured once approved (&, in some instances, the site built)
ft.com/content/8b48a8…

According to the NAO £11.7bn has been set aside for the development, manufacturing and purchasing of the vaccines.

4 types of vaccines in the portfolio.

Of those 5 vaccines seem to have performed well in clinical trials.

Of those alone we have reserved 247 million doses.

There should be a lot of “home manufacturing” taking place save for the Pfizer (and maybe the Moderna) vaccines.

That should help secure part of the supply chain.

It should also facilitate manufacture of the vaccine for export purposes.

That shows some creditable foresight

Read 4 tweets

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