Thread by @fascinatorfun

🦠 16,840 cases continuing the downward trend (but remember how quickly that exploded from a lower number at the end of the December lock down)

⚰️⚰️⚰️. 1449 (28 day deaths)

⚰️💔 117,378 ONS Stats authority deaths to 22/1/21

⚰️💔⚰️💔 125,223 COVID DEATHS total - an undercount.

Why am I also sure there is an undercount?

Firstly there is a settled pattern in delayed notifications evident from checking deaths by date of death over a period of time. They tick up over a period of two - three weeks.

Secondly if you check the death numbers for 28 day deaths by date of death (eg circled in green) there were 1150 deaths on 22/1/21. The Stats authorities had only been notified of 760 of them

By next week they will have caught up

Thirdly the 28 day death data stops at 31/1/21

VACCINATIONS 💉

YEAH! Over 10 million doses administered.

10,143,511 doses administered to 9,646,715 people

Of those 9,646,715 people 496,796 have received two doses.

350,348 doses administered yesterday.

So Mon and Tues lower than the weekend.

Efficacy data 🙏🙏🙏🙏 on the 1 dose Pfizer in December v 2 dose Pfizer ( 29/12/20 - 10/1/21)

There has been 3-4 weeks since the second dose administered.

What is the relative incidence and severity in the two groups and also compared to NO vaccination cohort of similar age?

I don’t want to get people’s hopes up given 🏥 are still so seriously overloaded and given how quickly we know that trend can reverse, but I think numbers are dropping at a slightly faster rate over the last couple of weeks.

Might that be lockdown + vaccination"