Why I became sceptical of the lockdown sceptics | by Dr Michael Fitzpatrick | Jan, 2021 | Medium

An interesting reflection.
mike-93476.medium.com/why-i-became-s…
Instead of engaging with the reality of Covid-19 and the societies which it is ravaging “they have simply used a familiar critique of the politicisation of health and the growth of a culture of fear as a script for explaining the reception of a new virus in new times. “
Neither medical science nor social analysis is sacred
But taking the measure of bureaucratic impositions like lockdowns requires something more too: it requires a moral compass. Government ministers abdicate responsibility for their policies by claiming they ‘follow’ the science
Politicians who decide that allowing the virus to circulate at supposedly manageable levels with the test being that the NHS is not overwhelmed are, in fact, making a moral judgment.

It also speaks to a lack of ambition
“We’ve cocked up on healthcare investment”

Response: Shrug
The election of Trump & the Brexit Ref “revealed elites on both sides of the Atlantic that have lost any sense of conviction or direction, and any real connection with an alienated public. Little wonder that the official conduct of the pandemic in the West has been so shambolic”
The authors (of the Grt Barrington Declaration) “have never indicated what level of imminent mortality they consider acceptable with this policy; nor explained how many people they think need protection; nor details of implementation.”
“ As the second wave of infections spread around the world in late 2020, Great Barrington fell silent. The sceptical mantle of Socrates and David Hume requires discipline.”

(I know @Jim_Cornelius would agree, hence him suggesting they besmirch the term “skeptic”)
“As Hume said, the sceptic must be careful ‘to begin with clear and self-evident principles, to advance by timorous and sure steps, to review frequently our conclusions, and examine accurately all their consequences’.
Whilst skeptic purport to lockdowns leading to deaths from other causes as a reason not to circumscribe people’s liberty, they don’t really engage with the known evidence that tends to refute their claims as a true skeptic would.

@_johnbye does in this excellent detailed 🧵
He goes to the trouble of looking at the evidence and reflections from a variety of reliable sources.

Well worth a read.
The threats to civil liberties of course matter to us all.

The lack of Parliamentary scrutiny of regulation woeful.

I didn’t realise that Sikora, JHB and Hitchens had been excluded from YouTube? Have they⁉️
“My memories of 2020 will be of the wracking cough and debilitating breathlessness of elderly patients — and of the persisting fatigue and debility of younger survivors.”
“ I will also remember the altruism of individuals and communities, of families and carers looking after elderly parents and grandparents and younger members with physical and psychological disabilities.

They all deserve better — both from political leaders and their critics.”
Very interesting from @Drmfitz

Sceptics ≠ disinformation.

Some people spread disinformation which leads to behaviour that kills.

Especially when coming from high profile accounts with access to media platforms, radio, TV and newspapers.
Especially when they have qualifications that are likely to result in those less qualified taking what they say to heartland embark on conduct that endangers us all.

I do think that this has to be curbed and simply arguing with them is not always enough

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More from @fascinatorfun

3 Feb
@dgurdasani1 I’m going to tell you a story because you go to a lot of trouble explaining the sources of the evidence as you understand it, identify where there is uncertainty and spell out where you think the evidence is pointing.
@dgurdasani1 Firstly. What you do is both generous in explanation and links to evidence.

And it is brave when others who may be more senior bring their seniority to bear rather than engage in specific details on the particular evidence as an intellectual equal.
@dgurdasani1 When I was a young (and very tiny 7st 7lb) advocate a case came my way that was legally very difficult. Ripping off senile old people - many of their life savings - by offering building and decorating “services” that devalued their properties and grossly overcharged them for it.
Read 17 tweets
3 Feb
🦠19202 new cases but they now count LFT test positives in this number without PCR confirmation
More later

⚰️⚰️⚰️ 1322 (28 day cut off deaths). 1506 (60 day, +ve test & Covid on death certificate)

⚰️💔⚰️💔 126,755 Covid deaths in total - NB an undercount due to notification lag ImageImageImageImage
Tests processed now include HUGE numbers of LFT
2,268,940 in the last 7 days in England
These have a lower sensitivity rate (returning high false negatives) than PCR yet are now lumped in with the positives, without PCR confirmation

It’s the false negatives that are the problem ImageImageImage
Positivity rates are calculated from PCR tests only

But lab based PCR tests processed for P1 and P2 are falling.

So is the reducing Positivity due to people not bothering with PCR test now in much larger numbers, relying on a less sensitive LFT?
Read 10 tweets
2 Feb
🦠 16,840 cases continuing the downward trend (but remember how quickly that exploded from a lower number at the end of the December lock down)

⚰️⚰️⚰️. 1449 (28 day deaths)

⚰️💔 117,378 ONS Stats authority deaths to 22/1/21

⚰️💔⚰️💔 125,223 COVID DEATHS total - an undercount. ImageImageImageImage
Why am I also sure there is an undercount?

Firstly there is a settled pattern in delayed notifications evident from checking deaths by date of death over a period of time. They tick up over a period of two - three weeks.
Secondly if you check the death numbers for 28 day deaths by date of death (eg circled in green) there were 1150 deaths on 22/1/21. The Stats authorities had only been notified of 760 of them

By next week they will have caught up

Thirdly the 28 day death data stops at 31/1/21 ImageImage
Read 6 tweets
2 Feb
Read this lucid wonderfully readable article by ⁦@liammannix
🇬🇧 UK variant (B.1.1.7)
🇺🇸 South African variant (B.1.351)
🇧🇷 Brazilian variant (P.1)

* Difference between: Mutants, Variants, Strains
* Spike Protein mutations
* Vaccines efficacy smh.com.au/national/what-…
Best article I’ve seen yet

See those orange dots?
That’s the Kent B1.1.7 variant taking over

Seeing the timetable of events (esp late Nov alarm growing at the prevalence of the spike drop out samples tested and that, on 13th Dec we had 21,991 cases ) promoted another look.
Worth bearing in mind now that At the end of the Nov lockdown on 3rd Dec, moving into tiers we had 15,654 cases (by specimen date).

A couple of days at 12/13k & up it went to 21k

33k by 15th December but Johnson doesn’t want to cancel Christmas.

47k by 21st Dec
81k by 28th Dec
Read 24 tweets
1 Feb
52 Days China and the Pandemic 26/12/19
A technician in a private lab in China sequenced a sample from a patient & said it was a bat-SARS like virus.

Wuhan Gov & China CDC were told
They must have known

Meanwhile hospitals in Wuhan were admitting patients with severe pneumonia
Another private lab sequenced another sample and mistakenly said it WAS SARS.

Despite efforts to keep it quiet this information went viral.

Taiwan Social media was alive with rumours before the end of December 2019

By 31 Dec a newsletter went out to 80 million people worldwide
However other scientific intelligence suggested it was associated to SARS but with differences.

The Head of the Chinese CDC, Gao, told and American colleague that it was a new coronavirus but not easily transmissible.

But information was out and he wasn’t believed
Read 24 tweets
1 Feb
Quick summary with usual death data & case processing reporting lag ⚠️ for Sundays & Mondays

General trend downwards.
🦠18,607 new cases (close to 15/12/20)
⚰️ 406 (28 day deaths) BUT
⚰️💔⚰️123,400 Total COVID deaths (ONS to 15/1/21 + 28 day deaths since both by date of death
🏥 Welcome continuing trend downs wards particularly noticeable in England

⤵️ Admissions
⤵️ IN HOSPITAL
⤵️ VENTILATOR beds

Still horribly high numbers but moving in the right direction and faster now.

How much is lockdown & how much vaccination effect?
VACCINATION 💉

9,790,576 shots administered to 9,296,367 people of whom 494,206 have had a second shot.

Excellent effort but - 🙏🙏🙏- efficacy data on the December one shot - two shot cohorts ASAP. Pfizer vaccine group.
Read 4 tweets

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