Thread by @Hibbo_FPL

The Best Liverpool Picks for GW22: [Thread]

In this team preview prior to GW22 I will assess the respective merits of Liverpool’s fantasy options ahead of Brighton’s visit to Anfield.

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(Data taken from @FFH_HQ with consent)

Introduction:

Following the resumption of the Premier League Liverpool clinched the title with seven games to spare. In doing so “The Reds” became league champions for the first time since the 1989-1990 season ending 30 years of hurt and the hunt for an elusive first EPL title.

Jürgen Klopp’s side not only rewrote the record books but created their own history with new chapters. The Reds finished the season with record for most consecutive top-flight league wins at home (24) and joint record for most wins in a top flight season (24). Liverpool played...

a dynamic brand of football as spine tingling as the club anthem “You’ll Never Walk Alone”. Their highly entertaining style is based on intense pressing, break neck counter attacks, and an unparalleled desire to win.

Season So Far:

Liverpool started the season with three ...

wins in as many games before a crushing 7-2 loss to a much improved Aston Villa side. In the next match, a 1-1 draw against fierce city rivals Everton, star centre-half Virgil Van Dijk suffered a cruciate ligament injury which ruled him out for the season. Frustratingly for ...

Klopp the champions have suffered a campaign blighted by injuries to first-team players, such as: Joe Gomez, Diogo Jota, Naby Keita, Fabinho and Joel Matip. These injuries have led to makeshift defensive pairings which have seen Liverpool record only six clean sheets in twenty...

matches. Furthermore, shifting midfield mainstays into defence has disjointed their attack contributing to uncharacteristic draws against the likes of Fulham, West Brom, Newcastle, and Brighton. The Reds have suffered recent losses to both Southampton & Burnley which leave them..

4pts off Manchester City who have a game in hand. Currently sitting in 3rd place on 40pts Liverpool’s fixtures over the next four (BHA, MCI, lei, EVE) rank as 3rd most difficult on the Hub’s ticker when sorted by attack.

Tale of the Tape:

Liverpool:

In terms of threat ...

over the last six matches (Gameweeks 16-21) Liverpool rank (per game) 2nd for shots (16.67), 11th for shots on target (4.33), 2nd for shots in the box (10.67), and 4th for big chances (2.33). Liverpool sit second to Man City for shot frequency however accuracy & conversion ...

over the period has been an issue. Following four consecutive blanks Liverpool have scored six goals in their last two games.

Defensively over the last six matches the Reds rank (per game) 1st with fewest shots conceded (5.67), joint 1st with fewest shots conceded in the ...

box (3.00), 3rd best for shots on target conceded (2.5), and tied 3rd for big chances conceded. Whilst these underlying numbers give the appearance of a resolute defence the Reds have conceded in five of their last six. Only against the Magpies did Liverpool record a clean sheet.

Brighton:

In terms of goal threat over the last six matches (Gameweeks 16-21) Brighton rank (per game) 11th for shots (11.67), 14th for shots on target (3.17), 9th for shots in the box (8.17), and 13th for big chances (1.33). The Seagulls have failed to score in three of ...

their last six games although for context their blanks have come against Man City, Arsenal, and an increasingly resolute Fulham.

In terms of defence over the last six matches Brighton rank (per game) 7th best for shots conceded (10.5), 10th best for shots conceded ...

in the box (7.33), 9th best for shots on target conceded (3.67), and 7th best for big chances conceded (1.17). The underlying numbers suggest Potter has tightened the Brighton rear-guard and three consecutive league clean sheets is substantial evidence.

Player Watch:

Mo Salah:

Mo Salah started the season in imperious form reminiscent of 17/18 with 13 goals in his first 14 games. However, in the next six games Salah did not produce a single attacking return with the drop-off in his numbers for shot frequency & accuracy eye-watering.

However, with Sadio Mane absent the Egyptian King produced the biggest numbers in GW21 - ranking first amongst all players for shots (7) and shots on target (4). Furthermore, Salah ranked first amongst forwards for shots in the box (5). With the quick turnaround before GW22 ...

the Liverpool forward has gone from being close to the chop to a lock for captaincy. Salah’s 70% ownership in the top 10k is set for a significant boost as he is currently the highest bought player ahead of Gameweek 22. Given his ownership & popularity on the captaincy poll I ...

would estimate Salah is set for an effective ownership of around 150% - this means you would not benefit from a haul if you do not captain him.

Sadio Mane:

An unreported injury ruled Mané out of GW22 leaving new suitors hugely disappointed. Prior to injury Mane's form in ...

last six had produced some of the best midfield numbers. Between GWs 15-20 the Senegalese ranked 2nd amongst midfielders for shots (19) and big chances (5). The majority of Mane's chances have come from close range as he ranked 1st amongst mids for shots in the box (18).

Mané owners will be relieved by Jürgen Klopp's assessment of his injury as, “nothing too serious but serious enough to not be involved today”. However, having not been fit enough even for the bench against the Hammers it remains to be seen if he will start against Brighton.

The Senegalese international is a hot differential in only 3% of top 10k and should he be declared fit by Klopp could represent a shrewd buy for FPL managers desperate to make ground.

Andrew Robertson:

Robbo has been clearly the pick of the Liverpool full back's this year.

With 1 goal & 5 assists the Scot has attacking output. Given Liverpool’s defensive frailty the cliché of “midfielder with assist potential” no longer applies. When comparing numbers vs Trent this season he comes top per start for big chances (0.38 v 0.22) and xA (0.23 v 0.17).

Trent Alexander-Arnold:

Alexander-Arnold has flattered to deceive this term after displaying a level of creativity on par with Kevin De Bruyne the past two seasons. In terms of underlying numbers the major change between this season and last is the quality of his final ball.

Interestingly the accuracy of his passing in the final third is identical (66%) however per game he is producing less key passes (-0.8) and big chances (-0.3). Furthermore, the frequency of his crosses has declined (-1.9) as have his successful crosses (-0.5).

The last six matches hint at an upturn in threat with the Englishman ranking amongst defenders joint 1st for shots (9) and 2nd for shots in the box (5). Furthermore, a well-struck goal against Tottenham could see the son of West Derby in buoyant mood for the visit of Brighton.

Conclusion:
In conclusion, I feel that Salah showed glimpses of his best form against West Ham which would make it impossible for me to oppose him a captain for GW22. While his recent numbers haven’t been great he produced big at the London Stadium. For those brave FPL ...

managers looking to bet against a Salah return & his huge effective ownership should take solace that Brighton have been no pushovers of late. The injury to Sadio Mane is untimely given his recent form and differential status however should Klopp declare him fit it could be ...

game on for those that currently hold. Given Liverpool’s defensive woes and tough fixtures their defenders are “do not buys” for me. However, those that currently hold have potentially big differentials for the game against Brighton.

From time to time as fantasy managers we have to recalibrate our thinking and a key moment this season for many was the penny dropping that Liverpool are not the same team defensively & that Trent especially is not producing numbers to justify a premium price tag.

For those that have read, thank you.

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Peace & good luck for #GW22.