Thread by @RachelBitecofer

1. Actually yes. @staceyabrams & @ReverendWarnock are necessary, BUT NOT SUFFICIENT components to holding Warnock's seat in 2022 & flipping the GA Gov seat.

Yes, Stacey came exceedingly close in 2018 & since then her work on infrastructure building, including expansion of the

https://twitter.com/IzzoNunzio/status/1356347860665716740

2. voter rolls via @fairfightaction's work are major assets in favor of them being in good positions in 2022. However, my theory of elections, which argues that D strength post-2016 was highly dependent on a completely natural antagonism effect in the electorate- the negative

3. partisanship effect- argues that those very strong performances in GA & TX w @BetoORourke, regardless or I guess despite of all the added infrastructure work was also aided, perhaps quite a bit, by a neg partisanship surge that *may* dissipate w the WH in Dem hands- as we saw

4. in the 2010 cycle post large increases in participation that were critical to the wins for Ds in the 2006 & 2008 cycles. Keep in mind, in 2014 when Michelle Nunn & Jason Carter, who GA Ds had such high hopes for failed utterly, turnout was about 38%. In 2018. when Stacey got

5. maneuvered out of her win turnout ballooned to 53%- that is (or was before 2020 anyway) presidential election level turnout. And when turnout looks like that, most of the fluctuation is coming from Dem Coalition voters- Dems AND Indies that vote for Ds (women-esp single women,

6. & esp college-edu women, and for the first time ever, WHITE college edu women. Minority voters of every sub group- turned away from a modern GOP that has absorbed southern white conservatives & instead of forcing them to continue to assimilate to a post-Jim Crow America has

7. decided to cave to a significantly sized subset of America's white population who have decided instead to make another stand for white supremacy, cloaked as it is. The election in GA, as it will be for all the House seats Ds need to hold to keep the House majority, as will

8. TX Gov, OH, WI, PA, NC AZ, FL, NV, Sen are all going to come down this question: can the Ds replication 2018 turnout, or will things recede back to 2010/2014. No matter what polls say, if turnout recedes, the GOP will take control of both chambers. Its really that simple.

9. The last 4 yrs taught me that the ebb/flow issue is asymmetric: its largely a Dem issue & its not bc Dem Coalition voters come out the womb w a voter turnout deficiency- esp now that more college ed voters are in their coalition. It is PRIMARILY a product of electioneering

10. strategy, which means, of course, that is totally within our power to control. I'm building @StrikePac to help control it. I hope to work w the many fantastic orgs on the D side that can help avoid "ebb" & bring more attention to those people & groups that already understand

11. it. BC its entirely within our control to produce another 53% turnout midterm and frustrate the Midterm Effect in 2022- given the GOP has been overrun my extremists and is in no condition to govern the country. Bc of that, we have no choice, we MUST do it!