Also, I'll focus on studies that did representative sampling of the general population.
So no sampling just hospital patients, blood donors, healthcare workers, etc.
"[...] during the what is now the second half of the pandemic in Utah (mid-June to mid-September) compared to the first three months of the pandemic (mid-March to mid-June)." issuu.com/ecclesschool/d…
6/B
Spain:
(rounds 1: early May;
round 2: late May;
round 3: mid-June)
translation:
"[...] seronegativization [...] of 7.1% (95% CI: 5.9-8.5) between Round 1 and Round 2 and a 14.4% (95% CI: 12.7-16.3%) between Round 1 and 3 [page 1]" portalcne.isciii.es/enecovid19/inf…
7/B
Additional steps are needed, such as adjusting for test specificity + sensitivity. But this list is just for review.
(ex: the study in 5/B uses a test with ~83% sensitivity, so its sample size and ~22% result is compatible with ~0% seroreversion) medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
8/B
More details on the course of seroreversion from the UK Biobank study in part 6/B.
Unsurprisingly, antibody titers stay elevated post-infection for months in the vast majority of people.
Serology isn't missing many asymptomatic + pauci-symptomatic infections, once one adjusts for sensitivity based on calibration (long-term sensitivity is better for anti-spike vs. anti-nucleocapsid)
Many COVID-19 contrarians, including those behind the Great Barrington Declaration, *still* cite John Ioannidis' inaccurate estimate of SARS-CoV-2's fatality rate.
So let's go over how atrocious Ioannidis' paper is.
Ioannidis uses antibody (a.k.a. seroprevalence) studies to estimate the number of people infected with the virus SARS-CoV-2. He then calculates IFR by dividing the number of COVID-19 deaths by the number of infected people.
Peter C Gøtzsche (@PGtzsche1) wrote the article below
He argues that COVID-19 isn't very lethal, + then draws some political conclusions.
The article is poor.
"Is the infection fatality rate for COVID-19 worse than that for influenza?" bmj.com/content/371/bm…
2/P
Gøtzsche's basic idea is:
The proportion of SARS-CoV-2-infected people who die of the disease COVID-19 is comparable to that of flu; i.e. the infection fatality rate (IFR) for COVID-19 is not an order of magnitude larger than that of the flu.
Gøtzsche is wrong. Study after study shows that the fatality rate for SARS-CoV-2 is about an order of magnitude larger than that of influenza; COVID-19 is way more dangerous than the flu.