1/J
Wanted to address some issues in the thread below from another immunologist.
Should be a nice change-of-pace from dealing with obvious nonsense from disingenuous denialists.
Wanted to address some issues in the thread below from another immunologist.
Should be a nice change-of-pace from dealing with obvious nonsense from disingenuous denialists.
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1357344439673397249
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/891040491214688257
2/J
Serology isn't missing many asymptomatic + pauci-symptomatic infections, once one adjusts for sensitivity based on calibration (long-term sensitivity is better for anti-spike vs. anti-nucleocapsid)
jvi.asm.org/content/95/3/e…
immunology.sciencemag.org/content/5/54/e…
Serology isn't missing many asymptomatic + pauci-symptomatic infections, once one adjusts for sensitivity based on calibration (long-term sensitivity is better for anti-spike vs. anti-nucleocapsid)
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1357348786062901249
jvi.asm.org/content/95/3/e…
immunology.sciencemag.org/content/5/54/e…
3/J
You're not going to get places with >55% seroprevalence with high specificity tests, if you're missing a lot of infections.
66% - 70%: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
74%: icddrb.org/news-and-event…
academic.oup.com/ofid/advance-a…
ins.gov.co/BibliotecaDigi…
You're not going to get places with >55% seroprevalence with high specificity tests, if you're missing a lot of infections.
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1357525667890528257
66% - 70%: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
74%: icddrb.org/news-and-event…
academic.oup.com/ofid/advance-a…
ins.gov.co/BibliotecaDigi…
4/J
Those high infection rates are incompatible with a low herd immunity threshold (low HIT).
As a whole, the USA has not reached HIT; its infection rate is too low for that, nor is it under baseline non-mitigated conditions.
Those high infection rates are incompatible with a low herd immunity threshold (low HIT).
As a whole, the USA has not reached HIT; its infection rate is too low for that, nor is it under baseline non-mitigated conditions.
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1357350212260352006
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1341851013096083461
5/J
Once one dispels the idea that serology greatly under-estimates the number of infections, it's even more clear that the USA had too few infections to reach HIT.
A 10X multiplier is too large.
Once one dispels the idea that serology greatly under-estimates the number of infections, it's even more clear that the USA had too few infections to reach HIT.
A 10X multiplier is too large.
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1357348786062901249
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1347313999524880384
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1287542476216172544
6/J
So even if it was unclear what caused a decrease in reported cases/day, it's clearly not herd immunity.
Similarly, even if someone's precise cause of death is unknown, you can still rule out causes that would leave obvious signs that are not present
So even if it was unclear what caused a decrease in reported cases/day, it's clearly not herd immunity.
Similarly, even if someone's precise cause of death is unknown, you can still rule out causes that would leave obvious signs that are not present
https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1357478511934492674
7/J
1) No evidence given that this wasn't due to behavior changes.
2) Other nations show a drop after behavior changes.
3) Mitigation + infections can curb cases w/o reaching HIT or sharp behavior changes
academic.oup.com/cid/article/71…
1) No evidence given that this wasn't due to behavior changes.
2) Other nations show a drop after behavior changes.
3) Mitigation + infections can curb cases w/o reaching HIT or sharp behavior changes
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1357349528035155973
academic.oup.com/cid/article/71…
https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1357116760567209986
8/J
And I can't make sense of the seasonality argument.
Seasonality is largely behavior-based in response to weather. Yet the decrease in reported cases occurred while it's still cold, months earlier than the early 2020 decrease
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…
And I can't make sense of the seasonality argument.
Seasonality is largely behavior-based in response to weather. Yet the decrease in reported cases occurred while it's still cold, months earlier than the early 2020 decrease
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1354479581848285192
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…
9/J
Herd immunity would keep cases/day from increasing even under baseline conditions, w/o cases limited by additional public health interventions + behavior changes.
USA is not at baseline.
Example: ↑ time at home, ↓ outside
web.archive.org/web/2021020507…
Herd immunity would keep cases/day from increasing even under baseline conditions, w/o cases limited by additional public health interventions + behavior changes.
USA is not at baseline.
Example: ↑ time at home, ↓ outside
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1353737022817640456
web.archive.org/web/2021020507…
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