1/ The Leb financial crisis in one chart. We tend to focus on the blue bar (how the $ were spent to maintain the peg), but that misses half the story. It's not only about why the blue bar decreased, but why the red bar increased (why deposits are so high)? The ratio is the story
2/ The problem is that the ratio of dollars remaining in the system is low *relative to* the amount of deposits that those dollars are needed to cover. It's not that dollars are low in some absolute sense, it's the ratio of the two.
3/ Why are deposits (red bar) so high? Mainly the gov't fiscal deficit financed by BDL and BDL losses due to excessive interest it paid banks on their deposits. BDL had to create new LBP to cover these expenses and this caused the amount of deposits to explode.
4/ Even though that money creation was in LBP, a big chunk of the new money was eventually converted into USD in the banking system, thus increasing the red bar. Therefore, contrary to what BDL says, it did not have to lend the gov't in USD for this problem to be created.
5/ BDL never had $100+ bn of people's deposits to spend on the peg/fuel/etc. It had maybe closer to $40 bn real dollars (exact figure unknown, that's why we need the audits). The rest is LBP that was converted into USD on paper in the banking system.
6/ We can't ignore the fiscal deficit in this debate, it's half the story, half the reason why deposits are impaired, why the LBP is losing so much value, why prices are increasing. Using up the real $ to support the peg is the other half.
7/ BDL holds nearly $40 bn of gov't debt (in LBP). That by itself would increase the red bar enough to cause a crisis. Add to it the impact of the peg (reduction in the blue bar as BDL sold dollars at 1500 and further increase in the red bar due to BDL interest losses...)
8/ The circumstances of this govt lending is questionable, morally and legally, and the responsibility falls on the parliament, previous governments, and BDL. When politicians question BDL about the peg policy, remember that their reckless spending had the same negative impact.
9/ If we never had a peg, we could still be facing a financial crisis! A central bank financing so much of the gov't deficit results in the exchange rate weakening/inflation. The peg & dollarization in the banking system only delayed the inevitable and then made it MUCH worse.
** oops slight error in the chart, corrected below

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More from @AzarsTweets

20 Jan
The 2020 estimate for remittance inflows to Lebanon aren't that surprising (remittances tend to be stable). But, they are down over the last 5-yrs, worse than comparable countries. And, in 2020 vs. 2019, they are down around the average for the top remittance recipient countries.
So Lebanon performed around the average in terms of remittance inflows in 2020v2019 at a time when the country is in deep trouble with the figure possibly inflated, as @lebfinance mentioned, by many sending money to close out loans (plus after the explosion, etc.).
It is striking that BDL reserves continue to fall despite this level of remittances and the absolutely severe reduction in imports we've seen. It would seem that these $ are not making their way into the financial system (b/c we haven't even started the restructuring process).
Read 8 tweets
4 Jan
I rarely talk about my day job, but a project I've been working on for 5 yrs just won "Global Deal of the Year" for 2020. It's a $20+ bn gas project in Mozambique, the largest investment ever in Africa, all during a pandemic & only 3 yrs after Moz defaulted on its Eurobonds. 1/
Mozambique, a country with limited means, defaulted on its debt, hired intl advisors, restructured its debt, did a forensic audit, negotiated an IMF program, all while setting up the legal/regulatory framework for an incredibly complex multi-billion $ new industry. 2/
This was possible b/c Moz has a Gov't which hires the right advisors for the job & listens to them. They didn't drown the population in misinformation, they didn't put ego & personal interest ahead of the national interest, they didn't use clientelism to destroy the economy. 3/
Read 5 tweets
14 Nov 20
1/ I appreciate the Minister being keen on the forensic audit, but I'm afraid she's making the same mistake that got us to this point: not anticipating the next step. Remember, they have an incentive to convince you that the audit was set up correctly...they set it up after all.
2/ Claiming that banking secrecy & the Code of Money and Credit are *not* obstacles to a forensic audit designed to uncover how deposits were used & BDL losses incurred is simply not convincing. To do this work, you need to track transactions all the way to the final beneficiary.
3/ Read the excerpts from the laws below and tell me if you don't think these laws would hinder that work. A transaction may look legit on the BDL end. You'd need to track it to its final destination to know if the funds were used as intended. You need client transaction data.
Read 22 tweets
29 Oct 20
1/ This is an incredible article. When people have no faith in their institutions, things that should not be leaked get leaked. It's a mix of useful information about the BDL audit and blatant political propaganda and deflection.

forbesmiddleeast.com/preview/blogs/…
2/ First, one point about the leaker. This was clearly leaked from a political side. While I appreciate having this info, this type of stuff should not be leaked and spun in the media. It is unprofessional and hurts the country, and it is misleading in many respects.
3/ The fact is, the failure of the audit is the responsibility of several sides. One side designed it to fail while the other side was so focused on a narrow political objective and acted with such remarkable incompetence and is now trying to deflect blame for its incompetence.
Read 18 tweets
27 Oct 20
Sorry guys I've been on a much needed break, but I heard the forensic auditor may end the contract. At least it's better than doing sub-par work. I only wish these challenges could've been foreseen back in July and repeated over and over in the media👇. It failed by design...
In other news, being outside of Lebanon really makes you appreciate how immature and pathetic our political culture is. I feel incredibly sad for Lebanese people. We should be enjoying nature and the arts, innovating and creating new things, raising everyone's living standards.
Instead, we spend every day on the same tired, unproductive discussions: which politician/banker said what, who upset whom, who's scamming whom. We're stagnating politically, culturally, socially, and economically. It doesn't have to be this way. Life has so much more to offer us
Read 4 tweets
4 Oct 20
1/ Crises like the many Lebanon faces can only be confronted by governments that can take decisive and difficult decisions. Two features of our system impede Lebanon’s ability to do this (which also explain why we keep spinning our wheels screaming about corruption & reforms):
2/

(a) Democracy by consensus among 6-7 competing political factions (mini-govts) that makes domestic politics similar to relations between independent states (i.e., anarchic w/ no "Govt" able to execute policy) & reforms analogues to int'l treaty negotiations between them; and
3/

(b) Communities feel no security, so politics in Leb is “existential” and not “policy-oriented”, so policy is nonexistent & communities can’t hold leaders accountable for failed policies because they fear harming their sect’s security interests & relative power vs the others
Read 20 tweets

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