1/ This is an incredible article. When people have no faith in their institutions, things that should not be leaked get leaked. It's a mix of useful information about the BDL audit and blatant political propaganda and deflection.
2/ First, one point about the leaker. This was clearly leaked from a political side. While I appreciate having this info, this type of stuff should not be leaked and spun in the media. It is unprofessional and hurts the country, and it is misleading in many respects.
3/ The fact is, the failure of the audit is the responsibility of several sides. One side designed it to fail while the other side was so focused on a narrow political objective and acted with such remarkable incompetence and is now trying to deflect blame for its incompetence.
4/ A large portion of the requests BDL refused to respond to, citing Code of Money and Credit, have nothing to do with this law. For example, info related to internal procedures of the bank, internal audit plans, operational risk plans, etc. Things that should be public anyway...
5/ It's really something. BDL didn't even try to make a legitimate or convincing excuse for not responding to a lot of these questions, just hiding behind the Code of Money and Credit for every request it didn't want to respond it.
6/ For those requests which may involve names of individuals or institutions, A&M proposed that BDL could anonymize the names (e.g., Individual 1, Institution 2, etc.) to get around the laws. But even with this option, BDL refused to provide the information.
7/ But I'm not sure anonymizing names is enough to get around the law. As I read the law (copied below), it seems not only to required confidentiality in connection with names of individuals/institutions, but is broader than that and covers account balances, transactions, etc
8/ But no doubt BDL is stonewalling to avoid providing any information, even info that it is able to provide. This is why a person or agency who is themselves being audited cannot be involved in an investigation or external audit of himself. This was a fatal flaw.
9/ This is just funny. BDL can't provide locking cabinets or meeting rooms.
10/ The only way to get BDL to cooperate with the audit is to involve a prosecutor & allow A&M direct access to the data, without anyone at BDL playing go-between. Or change the entire leadership at BDL to one that will cooperate. Changing the secrecy laws alone won't help.
11/ As for the propaganda in this article, this part says the President wanted to expand the audit to cover govt agencies/ministries. Nothing prevents him from taking serious steps to expand it. The fact that BDL audit is facing difficulties doesn't prevent an audit of ministries
12/ So failure of the BDL audit should not stop us from auditing govt agencies (and making the BDL audit work). Don't let this be an excuse. It has nothing to do with audits of government agencies.
13/ This ridiculous idea needs to go away. Subjecting the contract to Lebanese law makes ABSOLUTELY NO DIFFERENCE. BDL and MOF have to comply with Lebanese law REGARDLESS of what the contract says! This is pure distraction.
13/ It's a distraction because one side needs someone to blame for failure of the audit. They were too focused on a narrow political goal (blaming BDL) & spent too much time on insignificant points in the contract while entirely missing the big issues. The incompetence is insane
14/ Wazni did not "choose" A&M. There was a bid process and a working group involving several people chose. A&M is a fine and competent company anyway. A&M's price is not 4x that of Kroll. This idea also needs to go away. The contract prices are the about the same.
15/ The Ministry of Justice is now saying that banking secrecy doesn't prevent BDL from providing info because it doesn't protect "parties" who committed crimes. Sure, but there is no prosecutor involved here nor is there a particular crime being investigated. More deflection.
16/ Ministry of Finance signed this contract knowing it would fail. It misled the public and acted in bad faith. Everyone is now running for cover and trying to deflect blame. But if everyone on Twitter knew what the challenges would be, there's no excuse for them.
17/ We all know the deal here. This system cannot reform itself nor can it investigate itself, not BDL nor the ministries, nor the slush funds. Too many decision-makers and influential people are implicated, and the level of incompetence at every level is mind-blowing.
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Sorry guys I've been on a much needed break, but I heard the forensic auditor may end the contract. At least it's better than doing sub-par work. I only wish these challenges could've been foreseen back in July and repeated over and over in the media👇. It failed by design...
In other news, being outside of Lebanon really makes you appreciate how immature and pathetic our political culture is. I feel incredibly sad for Lebanese people. We should be enjoying nature and the arts, innovating and creating new things, raising everyone's living standards.
Instead, we spend every day on the same tired, unproductive discussions: which politician/banker said what, who upset whom, who's scamming whom. We're stagnating politically, culturally, socially, and economically. It doesn't have to be this way. Life has so much more to offer us
1/ Crises like the many Lebanon faces can only be confronted by governments that can take decisive and difficult decisions. Two features of our system impede Lebanon’s ability to do this (which also explain why we keep spinning our wheels screaming about corruption & reforms):
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(a) Democracy by consensus among 6-7 competing political factions (mini-govts) that makes domestic politics similar to relations between independent states (i.e., anarchic w/ no "Govt" able to execute policy) & reforms analogues to int'l treaty negotiations between them; and
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(b) Communities feel no security, so politics in Leb is “existential” and not “policy-oriented”, so policy is nonexistent & communities can’t hold leaders accountable for failed policies because they fear harming their sect’s security interests & relative power vs the others
1/ BDL Foreign Assets (FA) decrease $9.8bn from Mar-Sept. FA includes BDL's FX loans to banks (~$8bn). Financial Sector Deposits are also down $5.6bn. We suspected the big decreases in FA was partly due to banks using their deposits at BDL to repay their loans from BDL
2/ If the full $5.6bn reduction in Financial Sector Deposits is because of its use repaying bank's FX loans from BDL, that leaves $4.2bn real reduction in FX reserves. The trade deficit was supposedly ~$3.6-4bn during this time. That leaves few hundred million dollars unexplained
3/ BDL confirmed the above (that big reductions in FA is b/c of repayment of bank FX loans). But there is no transparency, so it's rational to assume there is capital flight happening. Plus, the trade deficit itself likely contains capital flight b/c it can be easily gamed.
1/ The appointment of 3 political cronies w/ no expertise to coordinate technical & investigative work of the BDL auditors means millions of your $ deposits will be squandered, months we don’t have will be wasted, & forensic audit (with all its limitations) is fully politicized.
2/ It isn’t just the forensic audit. Remember a regular financial audit is being done at the request of IMF and donor countries. This is technical work and requires a competent technical team to coordinate and oversee. MOF is undermining future IMF negotiations & financial rescue
3/ The audits should be suspended & any forensic audit results rejected completely until a committee of independent professionals is appointed and all of the other issues we’ve raised are addressed.
1/ The fight over MOF is, I think, a much more consequential conflict than people assume.
Each side has firmly committed to a position using all its symbols of national prestige (Batrak/heads of parties vs. Qabalan/Amal/HA). They've both made it an existential issue to them.
2/ This means, in effect, that neither side is able to back down anymore without a costly loss of face or "national prestige", which would have long-term consequences on its ability to bargain in the future by showing its "firm" positions aren't so firm after all.
3/ This is the fundamental problem with and benefit of burning the bridge behind you. You force the opposing side to "take it or leave it" as you've made yourself unable to concede. But if the other side has done the same, then the result is stalemate or escalation of threats.
1/ It's interesting how much the the evolution of the French initiative can be explained using the basic game theory of conflict. Firstly, a common mistake made in analyzing Lebanese politics is that there is an organized system within which political negotiations take place.
2/ Domestic Leb politics is probably better understood using the tools we have for analyzing anarchic systems, which govern relations between States or... between gangs. It is a system without a "higher authority" to enforce agreements and comes with its own rules of the game.
3/ Why is this important? Because it means there really are no "rules" that can be enforced by the "higher authority", and the game becomes one of threats/bluffs of violence/force by the different players. In this environment, the credibility of the threats made becomes paramount