1/ I appreciate the Minister being keen on the forensic audit, but I'm afraid she's making the same mistake that got us to this point: not anticipating the next step. Remember, they have an incentive to convince you that the audit was set up correctly...they set it up after all.
2/ Claiming that banking secrecy & the Code of Money and Credit are *not* obstacles to a forensic audit designed to uncover how deposits were used & BDL losses incurred is simply not convincing. To do this work, you need to track transactions all the way to the final beneficiary.
3/ Read the excerpts from the laws below and tell me if you don't think these laws would hinder that work. A transaction may look legit on the BDL end. You'd need to track it to its final destination to know if the funds were used as intended. You need client transaction data.
4/ And client transaction data (for banks as institutions and for individuals) is protected by banking secrecy and the CoMC.

I don't appreciate how the Minister and the Dept of Legislation & Consultation are white-washing their mistakes, which were described in previous threads.
5/ We know from the Forbes leak, BDL hide behind the Code of Money & Credit to avoid answering many questions *unrelated* to client information. So yes, banking secrecy/CoMC don't need to be lifted to answer these questions (sample below), but it is needed for OTHER questions...
5/ ...including follow-up questions that I am sure A&M will be asking at a later date if it wants to do its work properly. Without tracking transactions to the final beneficiary, I'm afraid we will not learn as much as was promised..

The Minister is completely ignoring this.
6/ Why is she ignoring it? I don't know. But it's the same mistake they made before the contract was signed. There is an attempt to limit the audit strictly inside BDL, but this will only give us half the picture. You can speculate about why this is what they're doing.
7/ There has also been much talk about whether govt accounts are subject to banking secrecy & that this question is obstructing the work. I didn't see any questions in the Forbes leak of A&M Q's that are related to government/ministry accounts. See below.

on.forbesmiddleeast.com/yip
8/ So what exactly are we talking about here? Which questions related to govt accounts did BDL not answer? I don't see any. Are we conflating BDL accounts & govt accounts? They are different. This seems to be the case unless there are more A&M questions which haven't been leaked.
9/ The Beirut Bar Association even put out a statement that there is no banking secrecy on govt accounts and, therefore, the audit can continue. But again, I don't see any questions in the Forbes leak about govt accounts nor how this is the main issue.

10/ The issue is about banking secrecy applying to client account info PLUS BDL non-cooperation in general. BDL will not cooperate or they will spin and mislead the auditors so long as the auditor doesn't have complete access and relies on BDL management as middlemen.
11/ Actually, most of A&M's questions are very high level and shows that they are likely not working with any whistleblowers. They missed too many questions because they don't really know where to look. Again, they didn't ask any questions about govt/ministry accounts.
12/ Putting that aside, it's a ridiculous to suggest govt accounts are subject to banking secrecy, for many reasons, but also b/c the govt tasked A&M with reviewing govt accounts at BDL, effectively agreeing to give A&M access to its accounts (it's in the contract).
13/ Anyway, BDL did not respond to questions that are not protected by bank secrecy/CoMC, but that doesn't mean a proper forensic audit doesn't require lifting or suspension of these laws so A&M can do what the govt promised: uncover wrongdoing & figure out who benefited from FE.
14/ The only way I think the forensic audit will be done properly is 👇. I wish we would be focusing on these.

15/ The Minister is right to keep pushing for the audit, but she's also white-washing her role in not anticipating these issues by focusing on BDL's misuse of the CoMC/bank secrecy in some instances, while ignoring that other data is legitimately protected by the law.
16/ And this issue of banking secrecy applying to govt accounts is a huge distraction. The govt (and law) determines who has access to govt account info. The govt signed off on an audit of its accounts at BDL. Period. The govt can give this info to A&M directly, doesn't need BDL.
17/ Unless we are conflating government account with BDL account. In that case, BDL's cooperation was always voluntary. This was a fatal flaw in the contract which we pointed out before. Lifting banking secrecy won't change this fact. BDL needs to be compelled to cooperate.
18/ So long as BDL is acting as a middleman, there will be no cooperation with A&M regardless of what laws are passed, unless the laws give A&M and an independent law enforcement agency the right to get the information directly without relying on BDL management cooperation.
19/ And remember, many insiders are jumping on the bandwagon saying "Govt accounts should be audited too!" Yes, I agree, but beware that many of these same people will quickly drop the demand for a govt audit if the BDL audit goes away. That's the difference. They are bad actors.
20/ The forensic audit is needed because: 1/ We deserve to know what happened with all our money, 2/ We need detailed numbers to design the financial rescue plan, and 3/ It's a forward looking audit that is designed to review processes at BDL to ensure this doesn't happen again.
21/ Attaching this here for the record:

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More from @AzarsTweets

29 Oct
1/ This is an incredible article. When people have no faith in their institutions, things that should not be leaked get leaked. It's a mix of useful information about the BDL audit and blatant political propaganda and deflection.

forbesmiddleeast.com/preview/blogs/…
2/ First, one point about the leaker. This was clearly leaked from a political side. While I appreciate having this info, this type of stuff should not be leaked and spun in the media. It is unprofessional and hurts the country, and it is misleading in many respects.
3/ The fact is, the failure of the audit is the responsibility of several sides. One side designed it to fail while the other side was so focused on a narrow political objective and acted with such remarkable incompetence and is now trying to deflect blame for its incompetence.
Read 18 tweets
27 Oct
Sorry guys I've been on a much needed break, but I heard the forensic auditor may end the contract. At least it's better than doing sub-par work. I only wish these challenges could've been foreseen back in July and repeated over and over in the media👇. It failed by design...
In other news, being outside of Lebanon really makes you appreciate how immature and pathetic our political culture is. I feel incredibly sad for Lebanese people. We should be enjoying nature and the arts, innovating and creating new things, raising everyone's living standards.
Instead, we spend every day on the same tired, unproductive discussions: which politician/banker said what, who upset whom, who's scamming whom. We're stagnating politically, culturally, socially, and economically. It doesn't have to be this way. Life has so much more to offer us
Read 4 tweets
4 Oct
1/ Crises like the many Lebanon faces can only be confronted by governments that can take decisive and difficult decisions. Two features of our system impede Lebanon’s ability to do this (which also explain why we keep spinning our wheels screaming about corruption & reforms):
2/

(a) Democracy by consensus among 6-7 competing political factions (mini-govts) that makes domestic politics similar to relations between independent states (i.e., anarchic w/ no "Govt" able to execute policy) & reforms analogues to int'l treaty negotiations between them; and
3/

(b) Communities feel no security, so politics in Leb is “existential” and not “policy-oriented”, so policy is nonexistent & communities can’t hold leaders accountable for failed policies because they fear harming their sect’s security interests & relative power vs the others
Read 20 tweets
3 Oct
1/ BDL Foreign Assets (FA) decrease $9.8bn from Mar-Sept. FA includes BDL's FX loans to banks (~$8bn). Financial Sector Deposits are also down $5.6bn. We suspected the big decreases in FA was partly due to banks using their deposits at BDL to repay their loans from BDL
2/ If the full $5.6bn reduction in Financial Sector Deposits is because of its use repaying bank's FX loans from BDL, that leaves $4.2bn real reduction in FX reserves. The trade deficit was supposedly ~$3.6-4bn during this time. That leaves few hundred million dollars unexplained
3/ BDL confirmed the above (that big reductions in FA is b/c of repayment of bank FX loans). But there is no transparency, so it's rational to assume there is capital flight happening. Plus, the trade deficit itself likely contains capital flight b/c it can be easily gamed.
Read 5 tweets
22 Sep
1/ The appointment of 3 political cronies w/ no expertise to coordinate technical & investigative work of the BDL auditors means millions of your $ deposits will be squandered, months we don’t have will be wasted, & forensic audit (with all its limitations) is fully politicized.
2/ It isn’t just the forensic audit. Remember a regular financial audit is being done at the request of IMF and donor countries. This is technical work and requires a competent technical team to coordinate and oversee. MOF is undermining future IMF negotiations & financial rescue
3/ The audits should be suspended & any forensic audit results rejected completely until a committee of independent professionals is appointed and all of the other issues we’ve raised are addressed.
Read 4 tweets
20 Sep
1/ The fight over MOF is, I think, a much more consequential conflict than people assume.

Each side has firmly committed to a position using all its symbols of national prestige (Batrak/heads of parties vs. Qabalan/Amal/HA). They've both made it an existential issue to them.
2/ This means, in effect, that neither side is able to back down anymore without a costly loss of face or "national prestige", which would have long-term consequences on its ability to bargain in the future by showing its "firm" positions aren't so firm after all.
3/ This is the fundamental problem with and benefit of burning the bridge behind you. You force the opposing side to "take it or leave it" as you've made yourself unable to concede. But if the other side has done the same, then the result is stalemate or escalation of threats.
Read 9 tweets

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