Hard to believe but in academic time, fall 2021 is just around the corner. Delays in vaccination program make this extremely challenging for universities, in many ways more challenging than planning for F2020 or S2021 was.
A #highereducation 🧵
1/6
Do unis assume herd immunity and business as usual by f21? Yay, let's go back to in-person classes w/ no physical distancing, normal dorm capacity! But, it's a risky bet, because much harder to pivot at last minute from normal -> covid than reverse. Hello, contingency plans. 2/6
Scenario 2: most faculty vaccinated & want to teach in person, too few students vaccinated for herd immunity. Too few classrooms to teach >≈50% of catalog F2F w/ distancing. Legal, moral question if can deny equal access to unvaccinated students (and what does equal mean)? 3/6
In this partial vaccinated scenario: what about student-facing staff? They aren't on vaccine priority lists, and it's nearly impossible to know now, in Feb, how many will have been vaccinated by fall. Can't run a uni w/out them, must keep safe. 4/6
Scenario 3: low vaccination rates by fall, or vaccine-resistant mutation. Unis plan for repeat of S2021: physical distancing, most classes remote or dual-mode (boo!), etc. Conservative from health perspective, very risky financially & psychologically. Students bail. 5/6
Tempting to just wait and see. It's only February, right? Problem is, the decision deadline for systems (e.g., enrollment, facilities, financial aid) is nearly here. Some universities will begin pre-enrolling students for fall 2021 in a bit over a month. Tick. Tick. Tick...
6/6
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Study based on @Cornell data from Fall 2020, when uni went to hybrid instruction. Roughly 28% of class meetings in person.
A few results: 1) Fall 2020 face-to-face network connected a much smaller share of students: about 47% in F2020 vs. 100% in F2019.
2/7
2) The average student in the F2F enrollment network encountered 65 other students in person over a week of classes, assuming 100% attendance. In F2019, average was 529 unique contacts.
In F2020, 0.6% of student pairs in F2F network tied directly, i.e., taking same class.
3/7
There are two simultaneous shocks to the sociology job market this year: 1) a precipitous decline in the number of positions; and 2) a discontinuous shift in the share of positions in different areas within the discipline.
1/8
In sociology, a much higher share of positions (inc. postdocs) this year are for scholars of race. This shift is understandable given the times, BLM, and renewed internal and external pressure on universities to diversity the curricula, the faculty, or both.
2/8
The first type of shock, the decline in positions, hurts all JMCs. One response is to extend PhD funding for current cohorts. In practice, this increases inequality across cohorts, because extra funding for current or late-stage cohorts means no funding for a new cohort.
3/8
Unis planning in-person or hybrid terms don't want to go all-in on formal surveillance and policing to enforce behavioral expectations or rules. Instead, they are putting faith in informal social control (usually framed benignly as norms) and community or self-"policing." 🧵1/9
I get it. Few faculty, staff, or students want campuses to be mini-police states where a mask violation turns into an interaction b/n campus police & violator. Most understand that this sets stage for abuse, both by police and by community members thru false reports. 2/9
Particularly in this social moment, universities also understand that formal policing of mask policies is likely to be uneven, with Black, Brown, indigenous, LGBTQ, and other historically marginalized communities subject to policing more often given same behavior. 3/9
When I saw Cornell's epi model, I had many of the same reactions as @WStevenHolbrook. (I was on the committee that wrote the reopening report, but a different sub-committee from the one that wrestled with health concerns and did the epi modeling.)
1. A lot of faith being put on results from a student "survey." Survey was always intended to be quick-and-dirty snapshot of opinions, not one that meets social science standards. E.g., no attention to response rates, nonrandom missingness, question wording/ordering, etc.
2. Survey was in late spring. Life was different then. US didn't have 130,000 deaths. The unemployment rate hadn't hit 15%. Covid-19 cases in NE concentrated in NYC & NJ. Few appreciated the extent of physical damage to survivors. We hadn't seen rise in cases among 20-35 yos.
Key findings: the average Cornell student shares courses with a max of 529 other students over a week of classes. (Actual will be lower, because attendance is not 100%.)
This increases to 600 students if just look at undergrads, because grad courses typically smaller. 3/
Should universities resume face-to-face instruction in fall? Ben Cornwell and I posted a working paper with relevant evidence from @Cornell on the structure of enrollment networks that connect students and classes.
Summary in thread, preprint here: osf.io/6kuet/
1/11
Course enrollment networks are small-world networks, with high clustering and short average path lengths. Although only small share of students are connected directly (in same class), nearly all students are connected indirectly through a third student.
More details...
2/11
99% of students and courses are connected in the main component of the network. Network has a stadium structure, with large gateway courses in the middle and more advanced courses around periphery.
(Same network as in 1/10, but in this graph courses are the top layer.)
3/11