New @mrcZA excess deaths report released today. 132 000 excess natural deaths from 3/5/20 to 30/1/21, up 7 000 from last week, a substantial reduction from the the 15.7k in week 2 and 12.5k in week 3.
50k excess deaths since 27/12/20.
Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Sharp reductions in excess deaths nationally, and in all provinces (e.g. ZA and WC)
p-scores (observed deaths::expected deaths) continue to decline in every province:
Relationship between excess death p-score and proportion testing positive by province and week shown below - shows how peak p-score lags a week or two after PTP (here p-score: 1= 100% extra mortality; 2=200% extra ...)
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Quite a few people have been sharing a copy of part of a South African death certificate #onhere, (including some medical practitioners) claiming that this shows that Covid deaths are being exaggerated, misidentified, and misreported. A thread on Cause of Death Certification. /1
2/ What was being shared? Let’s look at one of the images.
3/ The Notification of Death form in South Africa, DHA1663, is in two parts. A sample can be found on pp9-12 of this document: samrc.ac.za/sites/default/…
New SAMRC Excess Deaths report is out, covering the period to 5 Jan 2021. 83 918 estimates excess natural deaths since 6 May 2020. Mortality in the last week of 2020 (starting 30 Dec) 193% higher than normal in WC; 220% higher in KZN; 131% nationally.
Ridgeplot showing provincial p-scores by province and week.
For those advocating a "Targeted Protection" strategy ... Some observations. [A brief thread]
1) According to the 2016 South African Community Survey from @StatsSA: In 2016, 4.5m (8.1% of the total) South Africans were over the age of 60. [As the population is aging slowly, this proportion is almost certainly a little higher now, nearly 5 years later]
2) Of these elderly (aged 60+), nearly 2 in 5 (38.0%) live in households with a least one person in primary or secondary school. Adding in those in tertiary education (aged up to 24) increases the proportion to 38.8%.
As promised: Why we DON’T need ANOTHER South African Covid dashboard that merely re-presents the data in the public domain. (A thread 1/26)
There is a sudden proliferation of public-facing dashboard websites that seek to present data on Covid in South Africa. What do these do; what data do they present; and what insights and value-add can they bring? (2/26)
In general, using a variety of web-apps (shiny etc), these dashboards provide ‘live’, ‘real-time’ ‘data’ on Covid, using dataviz techniques. (3/26)