Thread by @AdamHarstad

One thing I love to do with Dan's monthly dynasty value charts is track the change in my players' values over time. Most of my roster management decisions are aimed at making sure that number keeps going up. If I succeed, I'm going to win a lot of championships as a byproduct!

https://twitter.com/Hindery/status/1356622601641209857

Some might protest that value isn't points. True! But if value doesn't eventually translate into points, it goes down and you've failed your "keep going up" goal.

Over long timelines it's impossible for your roster to keep getting more valuable without resulting in lots of wins.

I'd also argue that approaching dynasty with the mindset that value is the primary target and wins are a lagging indicator of your success in hitting that target results in healthier, more competitive teams than just chasing wins outright.

On the margins things can change. If Phillip Rivers is your only QB and you are in the playoffs don't cut him just because he's going to go to zero. Small value losses are an acceptable and even normal part of doing business. At some point, you have to consider wins qua wins.

Indeed, month-over-month value increases typically look like that. A lot of very small value losses offset by a couple very large value gains.

I can illustrate with one of my teams, since I just compared player value in the February charts to player value in the December charts.

Here's the net + and - from 12/1/20 to 2/1/21.

Mahomes: +1
Watson: +2
Prescott: +0
Lock: -1
Rivers: -4
Mariota: +0
Luck: +0

Jacobs: -3
Swift: -2
Ekeler: -4
Robinson: +1
Akers: +22
Murray: -1
Brown: +0
Edwards: +5
Ballage: +0
McKissic: +5

AJBrown: +3
MThomas: -4
McLaurin: -5
Higgins: -3
Golladay: -1
Aiyuk: +8
Anderson: +0
Ross: +0
Pascal: +0
James: +0

Kittle: +3
Hockenson: -6
Waller: +3
Fant: +1
Bryant: -2
Okwueg: +0
Oliver: +0

QB Net: -2
RB Net: +23
WR Net: -2
TE Net: -1
Total Net: +18

A huge gain from Akers, a large gain from Aiyuk, and decent gains from Gus Edwards and J.D. McKissic deep down by RB depth chart essentially offset a bunch of tiny drops here and there. Overall a good couple months for my dynasty team.

I use @Hindery's value charts for this because his process is most similar to my own of anyone else's I've seen, and because his values are quantified with a lot of detail. But in theory you can use any source of player value (e.g. ADP) and if numbers go up, wins will follow.

(Another reason I use Hindery's charts is because I can test myself against him. I can try to pick out mispriced assets on his chart and monthly gains and losses are a way to keep score. If I'm right, numbers go up. If I'm wrong, numbers go down. Gotta keep myself sharp.)

Anyway, if you prefer these thoughts in article form, I wrote back in 2015 about managing my team to maximize value and let the wins follow.

Never any paywall on my old stuff.

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